After 18 grueling weeks (and more if you bet on preseason games), we’ve finally arrived at the NFL postseason. Here’s a preliminary look at our NFL Wild Card round predictions and picks for all six games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Picks
Just like during the NFL regular season, the playoffs feature the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 14
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
When I allow my emotions to kick in (as my wife can attest, it’s rare), I feel incredible admiration for players who’ve persevered beyond the “normal” tests of endurance and skill. Geno Smith is one such player.
After two disappointing seasons with the Jets, Smith was pushed aside when the team signed near-elite receiver Brandon Marshall. Ryan Fitzpatrick went on to enjoy a career year. We’ll never know if Smith might have taken a giant leap at age 24.
Instead, he started only two games — one for the Jets, and another for the Giants — those next six seasons.
And that might have been the last we’d heard from him. But in 2019, Smith beat out former Denver first-round draft pick Paxton Lynch for the backup job in Seattle. Then, after three relatively effective emergency starts in 2021, he beat out former Denver second-round draft pick Drew Lock for the starting job.
This season, Smith leads all NFL QBs with a sterling 69.8% completion percentage. He’s eighth in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. Smith can be excused for a late-season slide against the 49ers, Chiefs (without Tyler Lockett), Jets, and Rams.
The Seahawks are a battle-tested, veteran team where it counts, with one of the best rookies in the league in Kenneth Walker III. Yes, the 49ers are more likely than not to win at home. Their defense alone should prove to be the difference. There’s a chance Jimmy Garoppolo returns — though even if he doesn’t, Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise under center.
With Elijah Mitchell back, the tandem of him and Christian McCaffrey arguably is the best among playoff teams. And a receiving corps anchored by Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle? Surely San Francisco can and will score 27+.
But I expect Seattle to put a scare in the NFC’s No. 2 seed, thanks in part to a franchise quarterback the league largely gave up on nearly a decade ago, the near-elite receiving duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Walker — possibly a top-five RB heading into 2023.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 14
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
A back injury to Mike Williams hangs over this contest, featuring two ascending teams that — if life were fairer — wouldn’t have to face each other on Wild Card Weekend.
At 4-8 and facing the division-leading Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville appeared headed for another defeat, trailing 14-7 in the second quarter, with the driving Titans in field-goal range on 1st-and-10. But an interception on the next play — the Jags’ second of four forced turnovers that game — turned the tide not only of this contest but their season, as it kickstarted their current five-game winning streak.
For the Chargers, health has been their Achilles’ heel. They’ve won four of five, and only one of their seven losses has been by more than a touchdown. Which one was that? Week 3 against the Jaguars, when Justin Herbert was still feeling the effects of a brutal Week 2 rib injury. Keenan Allen was sidelined, and perennial Pro Bowler Joey Bosa played only 13 snaps before getting hurt.
MORE: Chargers vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Wild Card Weekend
The question, then, is whether a seemingly healthier Chargers squad can avenge this loss on the road. While Williams could/should return (depending on the report), will he be 100%, or close to it — or not close at all? Back spasms are no joke. They could re-emerge at any time.
By contrast, the Jaguars appear to be more locked in. Yes, LA has won four of five. But vanquishing the fading Dolphins, Titans, Colts, and Rams — and then surrendering 31 points to Denver — are not entirely encouraging signs.
The fact is, when Jacksonville defeated Tennessee, they left a lot of points on the board, in part due to some shockingly errant throws by Trevor Lawrence. I expect Lawrence to snap back into form, and for Travis Etienne Jr. to outperform Austin Ekeler, thanks to a Chargers defense that’s yielding the most yards per carry in the league.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Jaguars
Buffalo Bills (-11) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 15
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The point spread says it all. Miami eked into the postseason after starting 8-3 and — briefly — leading the AFC East. But in a sport that values the quarterback position above all else, the Dolphins are in trouble.
As of Monday afternoon, Tua Tagovailoa is questionable at best. Teddy Bridgewater might return, or rookie Skylar Thompson could be forced to start again. If the latter, then we might expect this betting line to jump to 14 or even 15 points by Friday.
Buffalo is healthy and locked in. While their defense no longer inspires the same fear it did last year, their improved running game makes up for it. Rookie James Cook has been an X-factor in an offense that didn’t need much tweaking in the offseason. But clearly, a tandem of Cook and Devin Singletary gives the Bills greater Super Bowl hopes than Singletary would on his own.
MORE: Seahawks vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Super Wild Card Weekend
According to my trusty weather app, a little snow is in the forecast for Saturday, followed by freezing temperatures on Sunday — more specifically, 30 degrees or colder. I researched every game between these two teams over the past 20 years. At no time has Miami won in conditions 30 degrees or colder.
Yes, it’s possible. Anything is. But with Raheem Mostert battling a thumb injury, they can’t even depend on their competent backfield tandem to move the chains. It could be Jeff Wilson Jr. or bust on the ground and a backup QB through the air. That’s a recipe for trouble.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New York Giants
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 15
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
If there’s a tougher playoff team to size up than the Vikings, I can’t think of one. In fact, when was the last time a postseason squad looked like they can beat any team . . . and also lose to any team?
The Giants are an open book by comparison. We know Saquon Barkley drives their offensive engine. We know the mobile Daniel Jones will try to work magic with a collection of receivers who, this summer, were not even on most bettors’ radars. They were backups trying to make a team expected to perform somewhere between disappointing and dismally.
The spread is three points. Magically, this mirrors the final score (27-24) when these teams last met three weeks ago. In that contest, Barkley and Jones were locked in. Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James dominated. Unsung hero Graham Gano hit three field goals and has now connected on 19 of his last 20.
As with many overachieving teams, the Giants are fundamentally sound with a +3 turnover differential, which is 11th best in the NFL. But as with many overachieving teams, they have little room for error. Because while New York’s committed the second-fewest turnovers (16), they’ve also engineered the eighth-fewest takeaways (19).
Jones’s 7-5 TD-to-turnover split in six losses and one tie is disappointing compared to his 16-3 split in nine wins. The same can be said for Barkley, whose 3.66 yards per carry in six losses and a tie underscore how dependent this franchise is on his exemplary play.
Meanwhile, for all of the Vikings’ struggles, they’re 13-4 because they’ve been able to win nearly every close game. How often has a 13-win team scored fewer points (424) than they’ve given up (427)? Assuredly not many. Perhaps none before this season.
But Minnesota’s offensive prowess is unquestioned, led by the triumvirate of all-world WR Justin Jefferson, near-elite playmaking TE T.J. Hockenson, and of course, the still top-10 RB Dalvin Cook, who’s “quietly” posted 1,468 total yards while playing in every game. That’s a first for him, as he’s missed 3+ contests in each of his other five campaigns.
The Vikings are beatable. The more top-heavy Giants are more beatable.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 15
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
This past Sunday was a tune-up game between two teams that, if healthy, would be evenly matched heading into the postseason. If Lamar Jackson and Rashod Bateman were starting, the Bengals might be favored by a couple points, at most.
As it stands, even if Jackson somehow returns, I can’t envision how Baltimore keeps this one close. Despite a much-improved run defense that’s third in the league in fewest yards per carry, they’ve given up the seventh-most receiving yards.
In what world can they hope to contain Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins? Perhaps if J.K. Dobbins runs wild. And no doubt, Dobbins has operated like an elite RB in recent weeks. Paired with the uber-efficient Gus Edwards, the Ravens can help cover up for a lacking passing attack.
But this is the playoffs. Cincy is as good or better than they were last season, thanks in large part to a more experienced unit of playmakers. We still haven’t seen them at their best. I have little doubt they’ll kick their offense into another gear — a Super Bowl-caliber gear — on Sunday.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Monday, Jan. 16
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
I read a bunch of poo-pooing on Dak Prescott yesterday on social media. Normally, I’m not looking for poo-poo on social media, but sometimes it smacks me in the face.
There’s some kind of mythology tied to Cowboys QBs in the post-Troy Aikman era. It’s not necessarily fair, because winning at the highest level is incredibly difficult. But the mythology is grounded in reality, so it’s worth discussing.
Aikman won his third Super Bowl at age 28. He was a far more successful version of celebrated Cowboy Roger Staubach. Aikman became the model by which all future Dallas QBs would be measured.
The Tony Romo era was marked by three NFC East titles . . . but a 2-4 postseason record that never included a conference championship game.
The Prescott era also has been marked by three NFC East titles . . . but a 1-3 postseason record that’s never included a conference championship game.
Making matters worse is how Dallas has lost with Prescott at the helm. In 2017, the Packers’ Mason Crosby kicked a 51-yard game-winner as time expired. In 2019, they had the Rams third-and-long at the two-minute warning. One more stop, and they could get the ball back with a chance to tie. But they surrendered an 11-yard bootleg to Jared Goff — yes, Jared Goff.
And last postseason versus the Niners, they got the third-and-long stop that eluded them three years earlier. But marching back downfield, Prescott inexplicably scrambled 41 yards away from the end zone with 14 seconds left. When his 17-yard scamper ended, they didn’t have time to get off another play.
I bring this up because, while the Cowboys will write a new story on Monday, the DNA of past successes and failures remains embedded in this franchise. By most accounts, they are a nearly perennially successful team. Only six franchises have more wins in the past decade. But now they must get over the hump of near-perennial disappointment. And their opponent could not be more different.
Tampa Bay won it all two years ago, and last year, they were arguably one Hail Mary pass (Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp) away from a chance at achieving one of the most miraculous playoff comebacks in history . . . and another Super Bowl appearance.
Unlike last season, the Buccaneers’ core guys are largely healthy. While Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown remain distant memories, on paper, they still have one of the league’s best receiving corps.
The problem? An injury-ravaged offensive line and post-prime Tom Brady. The Bucs are averaging a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. Their 6.3 passing yards per attempt is second worst.
We might say that on a positive note, Tampa Bay QBs have endured the fewest sacks (22). But that’s largely because Brady knows how to get the ball out quickly — even if that means throwing off the mark more than usual.
This past Sunday, Brady broke another record: most pass attempts in a season. He’s led the league in this category for the past two years. Yet, his yards per attempt hasn’t been this low in 20 years.
For the Bucs to win, they need to show more than what we’ve seen in a relatively soft late-season schedule against the Cardinals, Panthers, and Falcons. For all the poo-pooing about Prescott, the Cowboys have averaged 30+ points in the past 3+ years when he’s played a full game. At their best, they’re top three in the league.
The same cannot be said for Tampa Bay.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys