We’ve gone 35-21 picking against the spread and 39-16-1 on moneylines the past four weeks. Here’s an early look at our NFL Week 16 predictions and picks for all 16 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 16 Predictions and Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
New York Jets (-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 22
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Two teams still in the playoff hunt. Shockingly, Jacksonville could lose this game, fall to 6-9, and still sneak into the postseason at 8-9. Travis Etienne Jr., Trevor Lawrence, and the Jags’ above-average receiving corps can score buckets against any defense.
And that should include even the Jets, who continue to suffer through limitations at quarterback and the loss of rookie Breece Hall. Yes, Hall > Zonovan Knight. Jacksonville should take this one.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Jaguars
Chicago Bears (+9.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
If RG Teven Jenkins’ injury is serious, it’ll be another blow to a mostly one-dimensional Bears offense that also lost Equanimeous St. Brown to a concussion. Despite hanging tough with the Eagles, they’ll likely have as much or more trouble against Buffalo in freezing conditions.
I expect the Bills’ exceptional offense to walk over the Bears’ defense, depriving Justin Fields of the luxury of running as much in a second-half negative game script. Buffalo should win by 10+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
The 5-9 Saints are largely playing for pride. The 6-8 Browns are still clawing for 9-8 and a legitimate shot at a Wild Card berth. New Orleans just gave up 8.2 yards per carry to Tyler Allgeier, despite facing a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Neither their offense nor their defense should instill in the Browns.
For Cleveland, I expect Nick Chubb to shine, while Deshaun Watson’s collection of three good-to-great receivers (Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku) will bring more aerial heat than New Orleans has seen in five of their last six games. The Browns are good bets to prevail by 7+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Browns
Moneyline winner: Browns
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Assumption No. 1: the Chiefs should take this one. They have one of the league’s most complete offenses, and their backfield hasn’t played this efficiently and dynamically in years.
MORE: Chiefs Win 7th Straight AFC West Title as Pacheco Leads Rotating Backfield
Assumption No. 2: the Chiefs have nearly lost both their last games . . . to the Broncos and Texans. That’s no fluke. Their defense is too mistake-prone these days, and Seattle — even without Tyler Lockett — should be able to keep this one fairly close.
Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Tennessee Titans (-7) vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This almost feels like a trap game. Tennessee has struggled to generate offense outside of Derrick Henry, and, lately rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo. While Houston’s woeful against the run, they know what’s coming in this contest: slow down Henry or take the long way home.
This is a game the Titans have to win, with a potentially season-defining Week 18 matchup in Jacksonville looming. I believe as long as they score first, their exceptional run defense should force the Texans into a passing frenzy — and not the good kind.
Against-the-spread prediction: Titans
Moneyline winner: Titans
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
What will the Vikings do for an encore? After breaking the NFL record for greatest comeback in history, Minnesota is showing why they can lose to anyone in this league, as well as beat anyone in this league.
The Giants probably won’t be able to keep up, as long as Minnesota plays up to its potential, featuring a formidable backfield and top-five receiving corps. Contain offensive centerpiece Saquon Barkley with their normally solid run defense, and the Vikings could win by double digits.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
New England Patriots (+4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Jakobi Meyers’ lateral would have made J.R. Smith cringe. On the same day the Bengals won after trailing 17-0 to the Bucs, the Patriots clawed back from a 17-3 deficit to take a 24-17 lead . . . only to lose. Painfully.
Cincinnati is rounding into postseason form, while New England’s odds of reaching the playoffs just plummeted. They get the benefit of the doubt with this point spread because they’re playing at home and because line setters generally don’t underestimate head coach Bill Belichick.
Yet, it would be a minor miracle for these Patriots to shut down Cincy. Their best hope lies with a perfectly executed ground game. Doable, and also a risky bet.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Will Lamar Jackson return? What’s wrong with Mark Andrews? And is J.K. Dobbins a top-10 NFL RB?
This point spread might change a lot in the coming days. For now, I’m comfortable going with the more well-rounded (on both sides of the ball) Ravens, rather than a still-rebuilding Falcons franchise putting their faith in the mostly untested rookie QB Desmond Ridder.
Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens
Carolina Panthers (+3) vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Candidly, I thought Carolina would match up better against the Steelers this past Sunday. Their performance makes me question how effectively they can slow one of the league’s highest-scoring teams.
With both teams fighting for a playoff berth, a big question is whether the Lions’ improving defense can pressure Sam Darnold into unforced errors. Aside from DJ Moore, the sporadically utilized Terrace Marshall Jr., and a solid backfield, Darnold doesn’t have much to work with.
MORE: Detroit Lions Give Substance to Playoff Hopes in Win Over New York Jets
Jared Goff has more than enough and is playing with the confidence of a franchise QB. Detroit won both of their last road games, and they should be able to handle the Panthers.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Lions
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Perhaps the final time the Eagles will be underdogs this season, though for good reason. Dallas is No. 3 in the NFL in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points surrendered. Ignore the Cowboys’ ugly loss to the Jaguars. I expect their defense to rebound, and that should prove to be the difference.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Is Brock Purdy for real? As long as the Niners keep winning, sure. And in fairness, he’s far exceeded expectations, especially when considering the extraordinarily tough circumstances he’s confronted. After all, this isn’t some interesting experiment. San Francisco has Super Bowl aspirations.
I’m all in on the 49ers this week because of their defense. Washington is solid and likely deserving of a spot in the playoffs. But the 49ers have a shutdown ability that the Commanders haven’t seen since Dallas in Week 3, if at all. The Niners should prevail by 9+.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 24
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
A fascinating contest. I’m giving the edge to Pittsburgh, and it comes down to how good — or not so good — the Raiders’ pass defense is. They shut down Mac Jones. But in fairness, Jones has been steadily regressing since a pair of solid performances in Weeks 11 and 12.
As long as Kenny Pickett returns, I believe the rookie QB can exceed expectations against a defense that entered this past weekend giving up 21 passing TDs and collecting only four interceptions. There’s plenty of pop to this Steelers offense, and I believe they match up better against the Raiders than the Patriots did.
Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Steelers
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
It’s been a streak-filled season for the Fins: a 3-0 start, followed by three straight losses, and then five consecutive victories. But three road games in 13 days against the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills proved too much.
On paper, they remain a playoff-caliber team. Green Bay has been too inconsistent to trust against such a high-powered offense, especially when yielding 5.0 yards per carry to the opposition. Miami should prevail by 6+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Can we trust the Rams’ wild-card offense to defeat the Broncos’ stout defense? And before we answer that question, can we trust the Broncos’ offense to break through against a still respectable Rams defense?
If any game were to end 0-0, this would be it. I’m inclined to favor the defending Super Bowl champs — not because they’re defending champs, but because Denver probably will feed the 32-year-old Latavius Murray way too much.
Against-the-spread prediction: Rams
Moneyline winner: Rams
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 25
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Let’s be blunt: if Tampa Bay loses this one, they’ll be 6-9 with Carolina and Atlanta remaining. A loss to the Panthers might knock them down to second place in the NFC South with one game to play.
MORE: Is Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowles on the Hot Seat?
I don’t see that happening. Tom Brady committed three turnovers in the third quarter this past Sunday, in what might have been the worst frame of his career. But the Cardinals are a comparably broken team and with a worse defense. I’m anticipating a bounce-back effort for the Bucs.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Monday, Dec. 26
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
What is Jonathan Taylor’s status? Will Indy head coach Jeff Saturday stick with Matt Ryan?
One thing is certain: the Chargers are cooking, thanks in large part to finally being healthy. Oh wait: Austin Ekeler got hurt on Sunday. Oh wait: he returned. Oh wait: Joshua Kelley continued to get plenty of work.
Let’s not sweat the small stuff. L.A. is no longer forced to feed two or three guys 80% of the touches. This is a balanced attack that happens to include some exceptional playmakers. Certainly they have enough firepower to push past the Colts.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers