We’ve gone 29-13 picking against the spread and 31-10-1 on moneylines the past three weeks. Here’s an early look at our NFL Week 15 predictions and picks for all 16 games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 15 Predictions and Picks
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.
Seattle Seahawks (+1) vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 15
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Will Kenneth Walker III return? Is Deebo Samuel’s ankle injury as serious as it looks? These and other questions hang over Thursday’s contest. Notably, the 49ers haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game since Patrick Mahomes ripped them to shreds in Week 7. Even if they don’t have Samuel, San Francisco is the more complete team.
Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 17
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota turned a season-high 425 passing yards into only 23 points against the Lions. The problem? Detroit locked down Dalvin Cook to the tune of 23 rushing yards on 15 carries.
The Colts’ defense should be tougher overall. But the Vikes’ defense will be better equipped to slow Matt Ryan’s erratic passing attack. Jonathan Taylor will need to run wild to keep his team in this one. I’m not banking on it.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 17
- Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET
After nearly two years on the sidelines, Deshaun Watson has been abysmal in two starts against subpar defenses. No doubt, he’ll find his footing. And the good news is that the Browns are still barely in postseason contention. So he’ll get at least one more start.
That’s right: the Browns have no good reason to risk a serious injury to their $250 million (guaranteed) investment. I believe Watson will continue to progress (even if gradually), setting up a solid enough outing against a Baltimore offense that might be down to their third-string QB.
Against-the-spread prediction: Browns
Moneyline winner: Browns
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 17
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Here’s a big question: if Buffalo scores a TD on the game’s opening drive, will you wish you’d picked them to cover?
It’s a psychological question, but it’s also statistically valid. The Bills entered Week 14 averaging the second-most first-quarter points, while the Dolphins were yielding the fifth-most first-quarter points.
MORE: Defenses Seem To Have Figured Out Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins Offense
Factor in Buffalo playing at home, avenging a Week 3 loss to Miami, as well as the Dolphins’ exposable defense . . . and we can see how the Bills are poised to take an early lead, and likely not releniquish it.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
New Orleans Saints (-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Let the Desmond Ridder era begin. Atlanta arguably waited too long. But at a minimum, their presumed Week 1 2023 starter will get some needed NFL experience in a high-pressure debut.
The Falcons somehow are only a game behind the Bucs in the NFC South. However, they lack the personnel to help elevate their rookie quarterback. Barring unforeseen mid-week injuries to Alvin Kamara or Chris Olave, New Orleans should be just better enough on both sides of the ball to win by 6+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints
Chicago Bears (+7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This point spread seems a bit too high. In Justin Fields’ last four starts, Chicago has lost by three to Miami, one to Detroit, three to Atlanta, and nine to Green Bay. The Packers’ game got away from Fields in the end, as he threw two picks while blowing a nine-point fourth-quarter lead.
The point is, since Fields took his game to another level this year, no defense has figured out how to stop him. I like him keeping pace — at times single-handedly — against an Eagles squad that’s dealing with injuries and underperformances on the defensive side.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Eagles
New York Jets (-3) vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Mike White (ribs) left Sunday’s game and went to get checked out at the hospital. All good on that front. But we just don’t know (as of early Monday morning) whether he or Joe Flacco — or Zach Wilson — will start in Week 15.
Assuming Sauce Gardner shuts down Amon-Ra St. Brown (more likely than not, if that’s his assignment), Jared Goff will have a lot more trouble moving the ball, even with rookie Jameson Williams making his presence known.
New York can hang with anyone. At home against a beatable Detroit secondary, guys like Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore should generate enough offense to win by 4+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jets
Moneyline winner: Jets
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
If Kenny Pickett (concussion) can’t get cleared for this one, Mitch Trubisky will get the start. That’s great news for Carolina fans and bettors. The Panthers have a lot of problems, but their defense has been somewhere between great and stellar these past four games, including in tough road contests in Baltimore and Seattle.
The Steelers’ D entered Week 14 giving up only 4.1 yards per carry — one of the NFL’s best marks. Then J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards steamrolled them. I’m not convinced a Steelers team led by Trubisky and Najee Harris can push past the improved Panthers.
Against-the-spread prediction: Panthers
Moneyline winner: Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
If Tennessee had beaten the Jaguars, and if the Cowboys had made good on their 17-point spread over Houston, I believe the line for this game would have been 11 points or higher. Instead, the line setters expect a close game between the suddenly elite (at least for one game) Trevor Lawrence.
Momentum factors into how lines are set, as well as how we react to point spreads — viscerally and/or scientifically.
MORE: NFL Playoff Picture Week 15
One thing to consider, however: Jacksonville’s worst home loss this season was a seven-point defeat to Houston — the Texans’ only victory. And yet, in each of their three home losses, the Jags led deep into the fourth quarter.
A recent blowout loss in Detroit aside, the Jags’ next worse loss was eight points in Philadelphia. This team is built to compete. They should keep things close against Dallas.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Cowboys
Houston Texans (+14) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
After nearly blowing a 27-0 lead over the hapless Broncos, Kansas City should rebound nicely against Houston. How nicely? That depends partly on the health of Dameon Pierce (ankle injury). And I’m curious whether Brandin Cooks and/or Nico Collins will return to the field, not to mention Derek Stingley Jr.
As dominant as K.C. has looked, if the Texans get Pierce or Stingley back, I’m comfortable picking the home team to stay within 12 points, even if that means trailing by 19 late in the fourth quarter and tacking on a meaningless score.
Against-the-spread prediction: Texans
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
Denver Broncos (-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
On coin flips, I’ll often go with the home team. But late in the season, especially when the home team is well out of playoff range, the calculus shifts.
While I’m not sold on Arizona, Denver looked anemic on Sunday before Patrick Mahomes nearly threw away a seemingly insurmountable lead. The Cardinals have a better offense, and I’m willing to bet that will be enough to overcome a Broncos defense that’s flailed in two of their last three outings.
Also, keep tabs on Russell Wilson (concussion symptoms). If Brett Rypien is forced to start, this line could pop in Arizona’s direction.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Cardinals
Las Vegas Raiders (-1) vs. New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
I’m surprising myself with this pick. Had Vegas won last week, I’d be okay betting on them with something concrete to play for. But with the Niners and Chiefs looming in January, their 5-8 record makes them exceptional postseason longshots.
And I think that will show, as New England’s superior defense should frustrate Derek Carr enough to move the Raiders one step closer to letting him go after this season.
Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
Moneyline winner: Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
L.A. is healthy. Tennessee has Derrick Henry. I don’t see an obvious scenario where Henry, alone, can overcome the offensive prowess of the full-strength Chargers. While Tennessee’s run defense is the real deal, their secondary is one of the league’s weakest.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
If Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd hadn’t gotten knocked out early on Sunday, I believe the Bengals would have won by 24+. So I’m withholding judgment on this game’s outcome until we know whether one or both will be back.
In the meantime, I have to offer an opinion based on current question marks. Cincy still has the advantage, even if Higgins and Boyd sit. Although we can’t just Tom Brady and Tampa Bay’s passing attack based on a brutal matchup in San Francisco, we can judge them based on what we’ve seen all season.
MORE: Tom Brady Landing Spots
Week after week, this team has struggled to gel, in part because of an injury-depleted offensive line, and in part, because this isn’t the same Brady.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Washington Commanders (-4) vs. New York Giants
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 18
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Heading into the Week 13 faceoff between these two teams, I wrote that — based on rest-of-season schedules — the 7-4 Giants needed the win more than the 7-5 Commanders did. Their ensuing tie didn’t make things any easier for New York. Now they’re on the verge of falling to 7-6-1, as well as 1.5 games (including the tiebreaker) behind Washington for the second of three Wild Card berths.
I don’t want to get ahead of myself. But these are the stakes. And for what feels like the 10th time this season, I’m making the same declaration: the overrated Giants cannot reach the postseason by running Saquon Barkley into the ground, in the absence of a top-24 passing game.
The Commanders are more well-rounded on offense and are considerably better against the run. They should win surprisingly comfortably.
Against-the-spread prediction: Commanders
Moneyline winner: Commanders
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Monday, Dec. 19
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Is everyone still incredibly excited about Baker Mayfield? OK, now for some tough talk. Yes, he led L.A. to an improbable fourth-quarter comeback only two days after the team signed him
But . . . he struggled for most of the contest against one of the league’s worst secondaries. The Packers are considerably better, meaning we need to see the best Mayfield has to offer. That’s a tough sell.
Against-the-spread prediction: Packers
Moneyline winner: Packers