Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 9. We have plenty of in-season data and can play matchups based on a good amount of information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 9 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 9?
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. TB)
For the first time all season, Patrick Mahomes gave fantasy managers a QB1-caliber performance against the Las Vegas Raiders. He didn’t quite get there because a lot of quarterbacks did well last week, but it was encouraging to see. If there ever were a spot for a vintage Mahomes explosion, though, it’s against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Given how well Baker Mayfield is playing, this game sets up as a high-scoring one. The Bucs can keep up with the Kansas City Chiefs offensively, forcing Mahomes to throw. And, most importantly, the Bucs allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
It’s a great offensive environment and the best matchup possible. Time to get Mahomes back in fantasy lineups.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. NO)
This is a tough week for starts at running back. Recommending Chuba Hubbard as a start is admittedly not my favorite thing to do. I am hoping the matchup against a New Orleans Saints run defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs carries a lot of weight here.
Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in a minor car crash last week, causing the Carolina Panthers to go back to Bryce Young. Unsurprisingly, the offense sputtered.
Young is inaccurate downfield but does not like to check it down. As a result, Hubbard only caught two passes. He finished with single-digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 1.
- Hubbard with Young: 7.4 ppg
- Hubbard with Dalton: 18.8 ppg.
Hopefully, Dalton can return, which would restore Hubbard’s fantasy value. If not, though, a home matchup with a soft Saints run defense still has me encouraged, as the RB1 role remains Hubbard’s.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans (vs. NE)
Speaking of elite roles, Tony Pollard entered the season as presumably part of a timeshare but has been in anything but one. Pollard is a true three-down back. His role is so good that he was still getting carries deep into the fourth quarter with his team trailing by four touchdowns.
With Tyjae Spears out, Pollard eclipsed an 80% snap share for a second consecutive game. He carried the ball 20 times for 94 yards in the most negative game script imaginable.
This week, things should be much more in Pollard’s favor. At home against the New England Patriots, the Tennessee Titans should not experience a negative game script, and the Patriots allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Pollard is a great bet to score this week. Even if Spears returns from his hamstring strain, fire up Pollard with confidence.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (at MIN)
With Deshaun Watson done for the season, Anthony Richardson has taken over the mantle as the worst quarterback in football, but Josh Downs has also taken over the title of best WR on the Indianapolis Colts.
Downs caught four of nine targets for 109 yards and a touchdown last week. While we’d obviously prefer Joe Flacco out there, Downs has now scored at least 15.9 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
ANTHONY RICHARDSON TO A WIDE OPEN JOSH DOWNS.
69-YARD TD.
📺: #INDvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/02H5eeGnvB— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a tough loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Their offense is bound to perform better this week. That will force the Colts to keep up.
Fortunately, we now have Flacco. His ascent to the starting role comes against a Vikings defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Michael Pittman Jr. is startable in this one as well, but I’m on the Downs WR1 train.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (at BAL)
It feels like Courtland Sutton is being viewed as a disappointment this season. Bo Nix has significantly improved since his early season struggles. That’s resulted in better games for his No. 1 receiver.
Sutton failed to register a single target against the Saints two weeks ago, which undoubtedly caused some fantasy managers to take him out of lineups. But overall, Sutton has been more reliable than not. He’s scored at least 13.8 fantasy points in four of his last six games. For a guy taken in the second half of fantasy drafts, that’s perfectly fine.
This week, Sutton gets a Ravens defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Ravens are a pass funnel defense, which should result in a higher-than-normal pass-run ratio, allowing Sutton to produce WR2 numbers or better for fantasy managers.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at KC)
Picking last week’s overall TE1 seems like low-hanging fruit. Of course, Cade Otton should be in fantasy lineups, right?
This is the second consecutive week that Otton is the start ’em of the week. Yet, he’s still available in just under 40% of Yahoo leagues. If the guy isn’t even universally rostered, then fantasy managers must not be fully convinced he should be a staple in lineups.
Otton was the clear beneficiary of the absences of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He played 93% of the snaps and led the team with 10 targets, catching nine for 81 yards and two touchdowns.
Cade Otton's second TD on #NationalTightEndsDay!
Bucs are back in it.
📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ZZDLInY3RP— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
Now, Otton gets a Chiefs defense that, while excellent overall, has been terrible against tight ends. They allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. No team is seeing a higher percentage of its total receiving yards allowed to go to tight ends than the Chiefs. With Evans still sidelined with his strained hamstring, Otton is a must-start in this potential shootout.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 9?
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (at BUF)
After a four-game absence, Tua Tagovailoa returned last week — the results were, as the kids say, mid. He threw for 234 yards and one touchdown in one of the easiest matchups he will have all season.
This week, Tagovailoa gets another shot at the Buffalo Bills. It was back in Week 2 when these teams first played that Tagovailoa suffered his concussion. However, he was playing awful even before then, throwing for 145 yards and a touchdown with three interceptions.
The Bills allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While the game environment should be conducive to points, this is the type of contest where the Miami Dolphins would be wise to lean on De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Tagovailoa is hard to trust this week.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at BAL)
Last week, Javonte Williams was a start. He thoroughly underwhelmed in the softest matchup possible, running for just 44 yards on 17 carries against the league’s worst run defense. Good luck in Baltimore this week.
The Baltimore Ravens allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They rank fourth in the league in rush defense success rate. Their 3.3 yards per carry allowed is the lowest in the league.
This is a week where the Denver Broncos will have to throw if they want to move the ball. The Ravens are the ultimate pass-funnel defense. Perhaps Williams can salvage some PPR value with receiving work. He will need it to justify a spot in lineups this week.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at KC)
It feels like Bucky Irving hasn’t been this every-week starter I thought he’d be once the Bucs realized how much better he is than Rachaad White. But he has. Irving’s 15.4 fantasy points from Week 7 were actually his lowest over the past three weeks, which is no shade to the young running back. Fantasy managers would sign up for 15.4 ppg right now.
This week, though, Irving enters the no-fly zone. Or should I say, the no-run zone?
The Chiefs are the best run defense in football, and it isn’t close. They allow the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Their 3.5 ypc allowed trails only the Ravens by 0.2.
Irving was heavily involved as a receiver last week, as the Bucs got creative to make up for missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He caught all seven of his targets for 40 yards. Well, the Chiefs see fewer than 13% of their total receiving yards allowed go to running backs. Don’t start running backs against the Chiefs.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (vs. CHI)
It is extremely important to make data-based decisions in fantasy football, but this is still a game involving 22 grown men running around, with each player’s individual decisions impacting the outcome of a play. Watching the games matters.
Marvin Harrison Jr. had his second career 100-yard game last week, catching six passes for 11 yards and a touchdown. I don’t think he’s a bust. He’s not bad. He may not even be overrated. However, the Arizona Cardinals’ offense is not catering itself to favor Harrison.
The rookie is excellent when the play breaks down. That’s where most of his production comes from — Kyler Murray extending the play and finding Harrison, who is excellent at moving to the right spot and coming down with the ball. But where are the deliberate targets? Where are the layups? Where are the quick slants? The curls? The screens? There doesn’t seem to be a concerted effort to have the passing game run through Harrison.
I am very worried about Murray this week against an excellent Chicago Bears defense. Jayden Daniels has been playing like the best quarterback in football, and they completely shut him down through the air last week (at least until the Hail Mary).
The Bears allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Harrison has four WR1 or WR1-adjacent games and four complete flops. I am afraid we are getting the latter this week.
Amari Cooper, WR, Buffalo Bills (vs. MIA)
At this point, I don’t know how we can trust Amari Cooper until we see the Bills start treating him like their WR1. Last week, both Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman played more snaps and ran more routes.
It’s possible Cooper is still in the ramping up period. We know he’s still talented, so the switch could flip at any moment. But one catch for three yards on two targets is going in the wrong direction.
The Dolphins are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. When these teams played in Week 2, Josh Allen did not have to do much of anything, as he was content to hand the ball off to James Cook all night. That doesn’t mean this week will be a repeat, but we could see a run-heavy game plan from the Bills. That doesn’t bode well for any Bills WRs, and especially not the guy who appears to be third, at best, in the target hierarchy.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (at GB)
Fantasy managers who stuck with Sam LaPorta finally got the guy they drafted with a premium pick. All it took was a game where the Detroit Lions dominated thoroughly and Jared Goff threw for all of 85 yards.
LaPorta accounted for a whopping 56.4% of Goff’s total passing yardage. He caught all six of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. Well … maybe that percentage wasn’t entirely from Goff, as LaPorta’s touchdown came from David Montgomery, who threw an absolute dime by the way.
David Montgomery throws a DIME for the touchdown pic.twitter.com/lqwB2c5VVT
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) October 27, 2024
Oftentimes, games like this can make fantasy managers think all is well. It is not — at least not yet.
The Green Bay Packers are actually a decent matchup, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but I don’t think we can trust that LaPorta is back to being an every-week TE1 just yet. We need more than one good outing, and we need to see his role in a game where the Lions can’t clown around with trick plays because their opponent actually puts up a fight.
