Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re here to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 6. We are starting to gather enough in-season data to rely on as we evaluate matchups and try to start the correct players. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 6 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 6?
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (vs. DET)
It hasn’t been the strongest start to the season for Dak Prescott. The once elite fantasy QB has been more of a back-end QB1 through five weeks. Prescott’s 18.3 fantasy points per game is nothing to scoff at, but this could be the week he truly breaks out.
Prescott did not play his best against a very good Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense. Yet, he still managed to throw for 352 yards and two touchdowns.
THE DALLAS COWBOYS!! Dak to Tolbert for 6️⃣!
📺: #DALvsPIT on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Jg7btATnJO— NFL (@NFL) October 7, 2024
Rico Dowdle has played as well as could be expected, but the Cowboys are not a good running team. Per TruMedia, they’re 18th in the league with a negative-5.4 rushing EPA.
The matchup sets up well against a Detroit Lions pass-funnel defense. Detroit is stout against the run but is 22nd in defensive pass EPA per game. Prescott threw for 345 yards against the Lions last season and could be in for a big night in a shootout.
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets (vs. BUF)
The New York Jets have really struggled on the ground recently. Breece Hall has been one of the worst running backs in football this season. He’s averaging 3.03 yards per carry. He has just two rushes all season of 15+ yards. The only thing keeping his fantasy value afloat has been receiving work.
Braelon Allen is not a threat to take Hall’s job, but maybe he should be. Allen has been the far superior player, outperforming Hall in every rushing metric you can think of. This week, both Hall and Allen should be able to eat against what might be the league’s worst run defense.
Aaron Rodgers has not been playing well recently. This is a great spot for the Jets to take some pressure off their old quarterback by attacking the Buffalo Bills’ massive run-funnel defense.
The Bills are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. They allow the most fantasy points per game to the position. With a bunch of running backs either injured or on bye, Allen is a viable RB3/Flex play in a very favorable matchup.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (at LV)
With Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson out, Najee Harris suddenly has one of the best roles in fantasy. He hasn’t been overly efficient on the ground, but his 13.2% target share is his highest since his rookie season.
It feels like fantasy managers aren’t really appreciating how good Harris has been. That’s probably because the 10.2 fantasy points per game doesn’t match the production. His expected fantasy points per game is actually 13.8. Why? Somehow, despite 94 touches and 389 total yards, Harris hasn’t scored yet.
Most touches without a touchdown this season:
1. Najee Harris (94)
…
2. Javonte Williams (70)
3. Rachaad White (68)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 7, 2024
I am making a not-so-bold prediction: This is the week. It’s mind-boggling that one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL hasn’t found a way for its lead running back to punch in a short touchdown. Against a Las Vegas Raiders defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs, Harris is finally going to score this week and give fantasy managers an RB1 performance.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (at BAL)
The Baltimore Ravens have a reputation for having a good defense every year. Well, not this year. Did you see what Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins just did to them?
Joe Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns against this defense. Terry McLaurin’s quarterback has played lights out all season. Jayden Daniels is arguably in second place for NFL MVP (forget Rookie of the Year — that race is over) behind Lamar Jackson.
Jayden Daniels making special plays 🔥
📺: #CLEvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/RJ0o4vBQ6k— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
McLaurin is the alpha WR1 in Washington. He’s seen a 27.3% target share this season. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have the second-worst EPA on passes targeting wide receivers.
This game should be high-scoring and could easily be a replay of what we saw from the Cincinnati Bengals and Ravens last week, or the Bengals and Washington Commanders three weeks ago. McLaurin has a WR1 upside this week.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS)
There’s no reason to complicate things. Let’s stay with this game for our second start of the week.
Zay Flowers has been wildly inconsistent so far. He has two games with seven receptions for 91 and 111 yards and two games with a combined total of four receptions for 30 yards. The upside is clearly there, we just need to figure out when to chase it. This is one of those times.
The Commanders no longer have the worst pass defense in the NFL … for now. That’s solely because they faced the worst quarterback in the NFL last week. Against anyone mildly competent, they struggle. They’re still allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Flowers’ target share sits at a stellar 27.1%. With Mark Andrews no longer part of the passing offense, it’s all Flowers when the reigning MVP drops back to pass. In a high-scoring affair, look for Flowers to have his way with the Commanders’ weak secondary.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (at CAR)
Recommending Kyle Pitts makes me feel so dirty. This has more to do with the lack of quality tight ends than Pitts himself.
Kirk Cousins has been improving each week. Last week, he threw for over 500 yards and was the overall QB1. It took what was essentially two games’ worth of production for Pitts to manage seven receptions for 88 yards. Eight targets are nice in a vacuum, but it represented just a 13.7% target share. That is not great.
Fortunately, Pitts is set to succeed in Week 6 against a Carolina Panthers defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Let’s see if Pitts can build on his first quality game of the season and give fantasy managers two straight TE1 performances.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 6?
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at NO)
I may come to regret fading Baker Mayfield. All he’s done is post 19.8 fantasy points or more in four of his first five starts. His 22.3 fantasy points per game is good for overall QB3 on the season. This is just a brutal matchup in a tough divisional game.
Before “Monday Night Football,” the New Orleans Saints were allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They’re sixth in defensive pass EPA per dropback.
Perhaps Mayfield has graduated into the every-week must-start territory. If you feel that way about him, that’s completely understandable. Don’t let me get in your way. But on the road against a very good Saints pass defense, expectations must be tempered for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at NO)
At no point in his career has Rachaad White ever been a good runner. In fact, he’s been one of the worst runners in the league since entering the NFL in 2022. What made White a valuable fantasy asset was his volume due to the lack of an alternative and his elite receiving work. Both of those things have changed this season.
Bucky Irving is a significantly more talented runner than White, and the Bucs know it. Irving is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has turned this into a full-blown timeshare. He’s played just over 40% of the snaps each of the past two weeks. Irving has also taken the goal-line role away from White.
So, about that receiving. Yeah … Irving is coming for that too.
Rachaad White failed to dip below a 60% route participation rate (routes run divided by total team drop backs) in Weeks 1 through 3. Over his last two, he's been around the 50% mark.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 7, 2024
White was an RB1 last season, averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game. This year, he’s averaging 9.7 ppg. He’s barely an RB3.
This week, White will be facing a Saints defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Before “Monday Night Football,” the Saints allowed just 13.7% of their total receiving yards to running backs. This is an awful spot for one of the worst running backs in the league. White belongs on fantasy benches, likely indefinitely.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (at PHI)
I hate recommending to sit players coming off of bad games, but this is a tough spot for Jerome Ford.
For starters, there’s at least a chance Nick Chubb returns this week. Even if he only plays a handful of snaps, that’s a problem for a guy like Ford who relies on volume.
More importantly, the Philadelphia Eagles have been very good against the run. They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
With one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL leading the worst offense in the NFL, Ford is unlikely to be bailed out by a touchdown. In a bad matchup, Ford is not a strong start in Week 6.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts (at TEN)
Feel free to ignore this recommendation if Joe Flacco makes another start this week. Flacco is matchup-proof. His raw volume and gunslinger attitude will make his WRs viable against any opponent.
As of now, I tentatively expect Anthony Richardson to return. In three full games with Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr. did not score more than 7.6 fantasy points.
If that isn’t reason enough to fade Pittman, the Tennessee Titans have been a surprisingly tough pass defense this season. They are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers and are No. 4 in defensive EPA on passes to WRs.
Combined with the emergence of Josh Downs, Pittman’s upside is severely lacking without the volume that comes with the most elite quarterback to ever live. You may not be able to sit Pittman, but at least don’t go into Week 6 with high expectations.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (at CHI)
Now, this is complete and utter blasphemy. Brian Thomas Jr. is my guy this year. He’s been the best rookie WR behind Malik Nabers and is easily a mid-WR2, at worst, for the rest of the season. If he can succeed this week, we’ll know for sure that he’s arrived. But it’s asking a lot.
The Chicago Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They have the seventh-best EPA on passes to the perimeter. Thomas has lined up outside on over 80% of his routes.
Trevor Lawrence legitimately played well against the Indianapolis Colts. It was the first quality performance he had all season. In the past, he’s tended to be streaky with these good games, putting together a few before turning back into his usual below-average self. For the sake of my BTJ “stonks,” I hope I am wrong. But this matchup points to a dud game for the very talented rookie.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. CLE)
It will be impossible not to rank Dallas Goedert as a TE1. However, fantasy managers would be wise to not have only a short-term memory.
Goedert was fantastic in the Eagles’ two games preceding their Week 5 bye. He scored 27 fantasy points in Week 3 and 13.2 fantasy points in Week 4. Over those two games, he totaled 19 targets, catching 17 passes for 232 yards. Also, A.J. Brown didn’t play in Week 3 and DeVonta Smith was also out for Week 4.
The Eagles’ two wide receivers are expected back this week, which will relegate Goedert to third in the target hierarchy. That’s where he was in Weeks 1 and 2 when he saw a combined nine targets, catching seven passes for 69 yards.
Aside from the volume concerns, the Cleveland Browns have been great against tight ends. They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. I fear Goedert may go back to the guy we saw in Weeks 1 and 2 this week.