Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re here to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 10. We have plenty of in-season data and can play matchups based on reliable information. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 10 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 10?
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (at JAX)
The reality is when teams face the Jacksonville Jaguars, everyone is a start. This Jaguars defense, in total, is the worst in the NFL. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs and the most to quarterbacks. Since Aaron Jones is a far more obvious start than Sam Darnold, we’ll go with the quarterback.
Last Sunday night, in what was an ugly game, Darnold still managed to throw for three touchdowns. He’s now scored 15+ fantasy points in all but one game this season and reached 20 fantasy points four times.
The Jaguars are dead last in defensive EPA per dropback. Darnold will be able to throw all over them. This will come down to whether the Minnesota Vikings score their touchdowns on the ground or through the air.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (at CAR)
Fantasy managers rejoiced when Tyrone Tracy Jr. was able to clear the concussion protocol and play against the Washington Commanders. Unfortunately, we might have been better off with whoever our alternative was, as Tracy only posted 7.9 fantasy points. Well, it’s time for a Tracy smash week.
The New York Giants’ season is pretty much over. They are not making the playoffs, but these are still professional athletes who want to win games. This is the perfect get-right spot for the entire Giants team.
The Carolina Panthers are coming off of a huge home upset over the New Orleans Saints where Bryce Young played arguably the best football of his young career. He is going to start again. I don’t buy that he’s turned some sort of corner, and that should keep the Giants from falling into a negative game script, allowing them to lean on Tracy.
TYRONE TRACY JR. 🔥
A 45-YARD TOUCHDOWN TO KEEP THE GIANTS IN IT 😤 #NYGvsPIT | ABC, ESPN, ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/MRLgsnavoq
— ESPN (@espn) October 29, 2024
This is not a split backfield. Tracy played 72% of the snaps and touched the ball 17 times to Devin Singletary’s seven last week. Now, he gets a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs by a sizable margin. Tracy is an RB1 in Week 10.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears (vs. NE)
It has been truly an epic turnaround for D’Andre Swift. After three awful performances to start the season, all it took was Chicago Bears coaches to suggest that they wanted to take a longer look at Roschon Johnson to unlock Swift’s talent.
Since Week 4, Swift has averaged 20.9 fantasy points per game. Last week, he posted his lowest total over that span, a still impressive 14.5 fantasy points. He ended his four-game touchdown streak, which accounted for the lower output.
This week, Swift is in a smash spot at home against a New England Patriots defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
With the Bears coming off a noncompetitive road loss to the Arizona Cardinals, they really need to get back on track. And while the Patriots with Drake Maye aren’t anywhere near the pushover they were with Jacoby Brissett, they’re still a very beatable team.
Given how Caleb Williams is performing, this is the perfect opportunity for Chicago to lean on Swift, who is also coming off his largest passing-game role of the season.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. MIN)
Perhaps I don’t need to tell you to start Brian Thomas Jr. The rookie wideout has been sensational this year, but he’s playing for one of the worst teams in football and coming off a major dud. Fantasy managers can be very reactionary.
Don’t worry about BTJ. He will be just fine. In fact, he should be more than fine against a Vikings defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Last week, Thomas was a game-time decision, ultimately playing through a chest bruise. He looked fine physically, but the usage and production suggest he wasn’t anywhere near 100%. Thomas should feel much better this week, and the Jaguars will need to air it out. A big bounce-back is coming.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers (at TB)
By the time he takes the field in Week 10, it will have been a month since Jauan Jennings last played football. It’s been nearly two months since his epic 46.5-point explosion against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3.
The San Francisco 49ers are expected to get healthy this week. Before their bye week, it was reported that Jennings is set to return in Week 10. Christian McCaffrey is also supposed to make his debut. However, Brandon Aiyuk is not coming back this season. That leaves Jennings in the WR2 role opposite Deebo Samuel Sr., who is always 50/50 at best to make it through a full game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be an average defense in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers, but they are undeniably a pass funnel. They allow the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Look for Brock Purdy to drop back to pass a bunch, as that is the path to beat the Bucs. Jennings should see plenty of volume, as I do not believe Ricky Pearsall has taken the WR2 job from him. He’s a sneaky WR3 this week.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (at IND)
So much for the sophomore-year breakout, eh? We’re halfway through the season and Dalton Kincaid hasn’t even had a breakout game. He’s scored exactly 13.1 fantasy points twice, representing his best efforts of the season.
There is one theme connecting his top two performances though. They both came against bottom-10 defenses against tight ends. Well, he gets another one this week.
The Indianapolis Colts allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. For as mediocre as Kincaid has been, he still ran the most routes among Buffalo Bills pass-catchers last week. He saw 10 targets. Chase that volume in a much easier matchup this week.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 10?
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (vs. NYJ)
What a strange season it’s been for the Cardinals. They currently sit atop the NFC West. They’ve won three straight games and four of their last five. Yet, Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. are not producing consistently.
Last week, in a win over the Chicago Bears, Murray threw for 154 scoreless yards while rushing for a mere six yards. Not only did the Cardinals win the game but it wasn’t close.
This week, they get a New York Jets defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With the Cardinals willing to lean on the run game and at home in what shouldn’t be a negative game script, it could be another low-volume afternoon for Murray.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (at KC)
For the second consecutive week, Javonte Williams finds himself on the wrong side of this column. Williams was able to salvage a passable performance against the Baltimore Ravens’ tough run defense, totaling 84 scoreless yards for 10.4 fantasy points. Now, he gets an even tougher task against the league’s best run defense.
No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to running backs than the Kansas City Chiefs. Their 3.5 yards per carry allowed trails only the aforementioned Ravens.
Furthermore, Williams saw a reduction in overall volume last week, playing just 54% of the snaps and ceding eight touches to Jaleel McLaughlin. Volume is Williams’ only saving grace this week. If it’s not there, fantasy managers who start him are going to have a bad time.
25. Javonte Williams saw just a 50% backfield carry share today, his lowest since Week 3.
His 8.8% target share was his lowest since Week 1.
4 of Audric Estime’s 5 carries came on the final drive, but Williams played up until then.
Seems to be on thin ice as a fantasy asset.
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 4, 2024
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (vs. PIT)
Brian Robinson Jr. couldn’t quite get himself up to playing against the Giants last week. His pregame test of his hamstring didn’t go well enough. However, given how close he was to playing, it seems likely that he will suit up this week. While it’s great to see him back, fantasy managers might want to leave him on the bench.
When we last saw the Pittsburgh Steelers play, they were getting torched on the ground by Tracy. Yet, they still allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. That’s how good this defense has been overall at stopping the run.
The Steelers are well-rested coming off their bye, and Robinson is clearly not 100%. Even if he can go, this is a bad spot. Leave him on benches if you can.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (vs. NYJ)
We are doubling down on fading the Cardinals’ passing attack. Harrison was a sit last week, and that worked out for fantasy managers who were able to bench him. He’s a sit once again.
So far, Harrison only does one of two things: He either gives us a WR1 performance or completely flops. He has five games with 5.6 fantasy points or fewer, but every time he’s gotten over that 5.6-point hump, he’s scored at least 15.5 fantasy points.
The problem for Harrison is the Cardinals have no interest in treating him like a true WR1. They don’t scheme him the ball. He doesn’t get layup targets like drags, slants, and curls. Most of his receptions come after Murray extends plays.
Whether that’s Harrison’s fault or the offensive coordinator’s is irrelevant for our purposes. The fact remains Harrison is nowhere close to being a weekly must-start fantasy WR.
This week, Harrison will get to face off against Sauce Gardner and a Jets defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. He can and should be ranked outside the top 36 receivers this week. This is not a temper-expectations call — this is a “bench Marvin Harrison Jr.” recommendation.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans (at LAC)
It’s been a really good two weeks for Calvin Ridley. With Mason Rudolph at quarterback, Ridley has played much better, posting games of 22.6 and 12.3 fantasy points, respectively, in the last two games. However, they also came against two bottom-10 pass defenses.
This week, Ridley faces two potential problems. First, Will Levis may return. Rudolph is not great, but he’s better than Levis and clearly better for Ridley. Ridley fantasy managers certainly want Rudolph to remain the starter.
Second, the Los Angeles Chargers allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They are a very difficult matchup for a wide receiver who has struggled all season when facing top pass defenses.
The volume should still be there for Ridley, giving him a passable floor. But he does have an eight-target game where he didn’t catch a single pass on his ledger. Nothing is guaranteed. Sit Ridley if you can.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (at HOU)
We are heading into Week 10. The Detroit Lions are unquestionably the best team in the NFC and quite possibly the best team in the NFL. Jared Goff has apparently sworn off incompletions. Everything is clicking for this offense. Yet, Sam LaPorta has just two double-digit fantasy point efforts all year.
The highest target count LaPorta has seen in a game all season is six. He’s seen three targets or fewer five times. If not for the combination of LaPorta’s name value and the struggles of the tight end position in general, he would’ve been dropped by the majority of fantasy managers weeks ago.
LaPorta couldn’t produce even with Jameson Williams on the shelf for two games due to a suspension. Now, Williams is back and LaPorta has to face the No. 1 team in the league at defending the tight end. No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to the position than the Houston Texans.
With the Lions content to run the ball and throw to anyone other than LaPorta, he belongs on fantasy benches this week.