If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to our Week 13 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
NFL Week 13 Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Deshaun Watson
It’s been nearly two years. No one knows what to expect — perhaps not even Deshaun Watson. Regardless, he’s inheriting a 4-7 Browns team clinging to postseason contention. A difficult late-season schedule awaits. But first, there’s the 1-9-1 Texans.
Here’s something many people might not know — entering this past week, Houston had given up the third-fewest QB fantasy points per game. Elite rookie CB Derek Stingley has had an impact, and his absence this past Sunday (hamstring injury) was apparent from the get-go, as Miami posted 30 points in the first half behind Tua Tagovailoa and his elite receivers.
Whether or not Stingley returns this weekend, Watson might need a half or more to get his sea legs under him. But I’m not concerned about his passing. For this bet, I’m interested in his running. He scored 15 rushing TDs from 2018 to 2020. All but three came from the 6-yard line or closer.
This will be the ultimate statement game for Watson, facing his former team while helping to keep his new team afloat. Anytime Cleveland gets inside Houston’s 10-yard line, Watson will be a scoring option. I’m expecting his betting line to be +300 or worse. That’s a bet I would take.
Jordan Mason
Let’s roll a little quicker through several more names, beginning with Jordan Mason. Elijah Mitchell might have an MCL sprain, and the cautious 49ers will likely keep him out for at least a week, if not longer.
Enter rookie Jordan Mason, who looked terrific in an emergency role on Sunday, rushing five times for 25 yards. He’ll next face a sub-par Dolphins run defense yielding a healthy 4.6 yards per carry and 12 rushing scores. If Mitchell sits, and if Mason offers +275 odds or better, I’m in.
George Pickens
As we all know, matchups are the key to anytime TD bets. Will the game be high scoring? How beatable is the defense? And so on. There are dozens of primary and secondary factors to consider, and if we want to get granular, there are more tertiary factors than we can count.
This past week, the best odds I saw for a George Pickens touchdown was +310. He and the Steelers are facing a Falcons defense that entered last week leading the league in receiving yards yielded. Atlanta entered Week 12 tied for the seventh most receiving TDs (16) and just gave up two more to Washington.
I believe in Kenny Pickett and the talented, youthful playmakers surrounding him. Pickens is an NFL star in the making. Heading into his Monday Night Football faceoff against the Colts, he’d scored in three of his previous four outings. His odds for another versus the Falcons are solid.
Pat Freiermuth
See above. Pat Freiermuth had a +300 anytime TD betting line for Week 12. I expect something similar this week.
Ignore the fact that Pickett still hasn’t found him in the end zone. I believe in the law of averages for talented players in favorable conditions. Freiermuth had seven TD receptions last season, and he’s one of the league’s most-targeted tight ends. The scores will come.
Olamide Zaccheaus
On the other side of the ball (sticking with the Pittsburgh game), the Falcons are down Kyle Pitts. So who stepped up Sunday? Olamide Zaccheaus. Not a coincidence. The 25-year-old has assumed a No. 2 target role alongside Drake London — and as we saw the other day, sometimes No. 1.
Zaccheaus had a +550 anytime TD line for Week 12. Entering that week, the opposing Steelers led all teams with 22 receiving TDs surrendered.
Marcus Mariota is playing to keep his job. The Falcons are playing for faint playoff hopes. And Zaccheaus should bring enough volume to earn at least one scoring opportunity.