The Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver depth chart already contained two highly thought-of fantasy football options in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and then they added a former first-round pick in the NFL Draft in Jahan Dotson.
What is Dotson’s fantasy outlook as a member of the Eagles, and could his presence in Philadelphia hurt the fantasy value of either Brown or Smith?
A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 328.1 (219.7 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 108.4
- Receiving Yards: 1603.7
- Receiving TDs: 9.6
Last season, despite a “disappointing” seven touchdowns (Brown scored 11 times on 18 fewer catches in his first season with the Eagles), he saw 2.5 times as many red-zone targets as DeVonta Smith.
Since joining Philadelphia, Brown has yet to miss a game, and while the nature of the Eagles’ offense has the potential to lead to some down weeks, let’s not forget that it was less than a year ago that he broke Calvin Johnson’s record for consecutive games with 125+ receiving yards.
Last year’s late-season swoon was a reminder of the downside of an offense centered around a quarterback who can be sporadic at times as a passer. Don’t let that blind you to just how special Brown’s ceiling is.
As he enters his age-27 season, it’s possible that we’ve yet to see the best that Brown has to offer. With Barkley, Philadelphia’s offense will be as potent as ever — meaning he could improve upon the 15.2 yards per catch and the one touchdown every 7.6 quarters number that he’s produced as an Eagle.
Brown is not among my top-tier receivers due to his weekly consistency concerns, but once the top five WRs are off the board, his annual production makes him as viable a target as anyone in the second half of the first round.
The addition of Dotson should not have a major impact. Dotson is the most physically talented of any of the third-tier WRs that the Eagles have had in this offense, which does increase the potential risk. However, he has been extremely underwhelming in Washington, and it does not seem likely he suddenly takes away significant value from Brown.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
DeVonta Smith’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 241.8 (155.5 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 86.4
- Receiving Yards: 1143.6
- Receiving TDs: 6.9
Before doing my initial run of rankings for the 2023 season, I was extremely bullish on Smith, ranking him firmly inside the top 15 WRs. Then, when I did my projections, he projected just outside the top 24. It was a fascinating discrepancy that I had to work through.
Ultimately, I leaned more on the side of my initial feeling. As it turned out, my projections were trying to tell me something.
Smith’s 27% target share from 2022 proved unsustainable. With that number falling to 22.8% last year, Smith’s fantasy points per game dropped from 15 to 14.2. Other than the volume reduction, Smith was mostly the same player, though.
His yards per game were similar (70.4 in 2022, 66 in 2023), and his catch rate increased from 69.9% to 72.3%. Smith also scored seven touchdowns for the second consecutive year.
At worst, Smith should be able to replicate last season’s numbers. He disappointed fantasy managers relative to his 2023 ADP, but he was far from a disaster.
His ADP this season is WR23, No.47 overall. It’s hard not to get excited about drafting him at that price.
One of my favorite strategies is to draft players at their floor. With wide receivers being so heavily propped up this season, they are all more expensive than normal. Smith sure looks like a pretty good value relative to other wide receivers.
Fantasy managers can and should prefer NFL WR1s over NFL WR2s, and there is exactly a 0% chance Smith can become his team’s WR1 (absent an AJB injury). Nevertheless, Smith has a proven top-15 upside. Unlike last season, he no longer comes with anything close to a top-15 price.
Where Smith goes, there are typically running backs I prefer. But if you are selecting a wide receiver, Smith is very much in play. He is currently my WR20.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jahan Dotson’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 140.4 (93.3 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 47.1
- Receiving Yards: 647.7
- Receiving TDs: 4.9
The recent trade that sent Dotson to the Eagles changed his fantasy value completely. He went from being a WR2 on an offense with several question marks to a WR3 on an offense we know is potent but has a lot of mouths to feed. Dotson could realistically be the Eagles’ fifth pass catcher, and that role has little fantasy value to offer.
The other element to consider here is that the Washington Commanders just gave up a receiver set to start for them for very little — to a division opponent. That is not a ringing endorsement of Dotson’s prowess, and it does not suggest he will likely earn a huge number of targets this season.
Dotson could still be a deep-league fantasy option, but his value is going to be sporadic at best. This is a WR who is preferably avoided at this stage unless you are looking to stash a WR and bank on an injury to his superiors in the receiver room.
– Ben Rolfe, Fantasy Football Analyst