D’Andre Swift enjoyed a nice year as the Philadelphia Eagles‘ lead back in 2023, but he’s now in Chicago.
The Eagles may have upgraded there, though, by signing Saquon Barkley away from division rival New York.
With Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell, and rookie Will Shipley in the mix for touches, what is the fantasy football outlook for the Eagles’ backfield this year?
Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 302.8 (238.4 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1312.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 8.1
- Receptions: 64.5
- Receiving Yards: 410.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 2.9
After playing a full 16-game season his rookie year, Barkley has missed 25 games over the last five years while dealing with a multitude of injuries — torn ACL, high ankle sprains, and an elbow sprain — and playing in some of the worst offenses the league had to offer throughout his entire career.
The Giants’ passing game has been so horrendous over the last five years that they haven’t had a pass catcher top 70 receptions or 800 yards receiving. This has undoubtedly impacted both his efficiency (3.89 yards per carry in 2023) and his number of touches in the red zone.
Yet, Barkley’s RB13 and RB5 fantasy finishes over the last two years with the likes of Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Tommy DeVito should certainly not be ignored. His 2.1 yards before contact per attempt was in the same range as Derrick Henry and Chuba Hubbard last year, who were in similarly poor situations with bad quarterback play and struggling offensive lines.
Here comes the good news. Barkley will be playing behind an Eagles’ offensive line that helped D’Andre Swift average 3.0 yards before contact per attempt last year — which ranked fifth among backs with 200+ carries.
The move from New York to Philadelphia finally allows Barkley to see a feature-back role for a top-10 offensive unit, giving him the upside for an RB1 overall fantasy ceiling in 2024 — if Jalen Hurts doesn’t vulture away all of the short-yardage work this upcoming season.
Hurts owns the record for most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback over two years with 28. Sure, the Tush Push may not be as effective with Jason Kelce now enjoying retirement, but Hurts will still see his fair share of carries inside the 5-yard line — where he ranked sixth in the league last season with 16 carries for 13 scores.
In comparison, Barkley only saw six such carries last year while being stuck in a Giants’ offense that produced just 43 trips to the red zone — which ranked 28th in the NFL.
In addition to losing some goal-to-go carries to Hurts, Barkley’s pass-catching floor is likely another concern heading into 2024. The aforementioned Swift, who is an excellent receiving threat out of the backfield, caught a career-low 39 receptions last year. This likely means Barkley won’t get anywhere near his career-high 91 receptions mark from his rookie year in Philly’s offense.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Kenneth Gainwell’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 92.8 (67.0 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 268.1
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.3
- Receptions: 25.8
- Receiving Yards: 181.1
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.3
Perhaps the most impressive part of Gainwell’s career is he’s a one-time fifth-round pick who has maintained a consistent role for three years. Typically, Day 3 running backs with his production profile end up released.
That’s great for Gainwell’s career, but it hasn’t done fantasy managers any favors. Nevertheless, Gainwell has been on fantasy rosters every year of his career.
Last season, Gainwell actually got a chance to be the Eagles’ lead back in Week 1. He wasn’t bad, either, posting 11.4 fantasy points. Unfortunately, he hurt his ribs, forcing him to miss Week 2.
D’Andre Swift started, played quite well, and that was all she wrote for Gainwell in a potential lead-back role. He did not reach his fantasy-point total from Week 1 at any point the rest of the season.
The Eagles’ refusal to ever truly feature Gainwell isn’t surprising, given his draft capital. But it’s not as if Gainwell has been a bad player.
Last year, Gainwell’s 4.8 yards per touch was 22nd in the league and a very respectable 4.8% of his carries went for 15+ yards, 18th in the league. He averaged 5.4 yards per touch in 2022 and 2021, as well.
We can’t really say Gainwell wouldn’t be effective in a lead role because we don’t really know. We think Gainwell is the primary handcuff to the Eagles’ new starter, Saquon Barkley, but we can’t know for sure.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Will Shipley’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 73.6 (62.4 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 369.8
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.1
- Receptions: 11.2
- Receiving Yards: 112.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.3
For my money, this is the proper way to handcuff Barkley if you want to bet against the newest Eagle. Yes, Gainwell has been in town for three seasons, and yes, he’s proven reliable, but we’ve yet to see him flash much in the way of upside.
Shipley was used as a versatile weapon during his three seasons at Clemson and projects as an interesting piece in this explosive offense. There isn’t much fantasy viable usage to go around when Philadelphia is at full strength, but if Barkley were to miss time, it’s not hard to imagine this team carving out a 10-12 touch role for Shipley that could hold Flex value in a PPR setting.
There’s no need to look this deep down the board on draft night, but it is a name to store in the back of your mind – a skill set like this on a creative offense finds a way to make an impact.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst