The Philadelphia Eagles entered Week 16 as the NFL‘s hottest team. The Birds were on a franchise-record 10-game win streak. However, that all came crashing down in Week 16 when the Commanders pulled off an unbelievable, last-second win against a beaten-up Philadelphia.
After the loss, we break down the Eagles’ various playoff scenarios.
What Is the Philadelphia Eagles’ Current Playoff Picture?
The 12-3 Eagles are currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Their loss to the Commanders put a real damper on their chances to get the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Lions and Eagles do not play this regular season, but Detroit mathematically holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.
This is because the Lions are 9-1 in conference, compared to 7-3 in conference for the Eagles.
Both teams only play conference opponents over their final three games. Therefore, it’s impossible for Philadelphia to gain a game on Detroit without gaining a game on them in the overall standings. At that point, the Eagles would just have a superior record, and no tiebreaker would be necessary.
The Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth, but their loss kept the NFC East in contention.
Can the Eagles Still Earn the NFC No. 1 Seed?
As mentioned in the Lions section, the Eagles cannot win any head-to-head tiebreaker with Detroit, so Philly will be rooting for both Detroit and Minnesota to drop a game in Week 17 or for the Vikings to be the NFC North team that wins out.
Basically, what the Eagles need is:
- Lions to go 0-2 or 0-1-1
- Vikings to go 1-1 or 0-1-1
Here’s where it gets complicated. If the Eagles and Vikings finish in a two-way tie for the best record in the NFC, here’s how the tiebreakers are shaping up:
- IF BOTH 14-3: Both would finish 9-3 in the conference. It would come down to the common-opponents tiebreaker, where both are currently 4-1 with one common game left to play. Here’s how those scenarios break down:
- IF MIN beats GB and PHI beats NYG: Both 5-1 in common games, goes to the strength of victory tiebreaker
- IF MIN beats GB and PHI loses to NYG: the Vikings win the tiebreaker due to being 5-1 in common games vs. 4-2 for the Eagles
- IF MIN loses to GB and PHI beats NYG: the Eagles win the tiebreaker due to being 5-1 in common games vs. 4-2 for the Vikings
- IF MIN loses to GB and PHI loses to NYG: Both 4-2 in common games, goes to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker
Note: the logic for the myriad of 14-3 tiebreakers applies if the Vikings and Eagles both finish tied for the best record at 13-4 or 13-3-1.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)