Eagles’ Playoff Scenarios: What Philadelphia Needs To Clinch Playoff Berth in Week 14

After an uneven start, the Philadelphia Eagles have been arguably the best team in football over the last two months. With an eight-game win streak entering Week 14, the Birds are on the verge of the playoffs.

Below we take a look at what Philly needs to clinch a postseason berth, as well as the overall playoff picture in the NFC.

Eagles Playoff and Clinching Scenario Updates | Week 14

Sunday 1 p.m. ET Results

• Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) def. Carolina Panthers (3-10)
• Seattle Seahawks (8-5) def. Arizona Cardinals (6-7)

With Philadelphia’s win over the Panthers and the Cardinals losing to the Seahawks, the Eagles have now clinched a playoff spot.

The @Eagles officially clinch their spot in the #NFLPlayoffs!@budlight #EasyToCelebrate pic.twitter.com/PLYpGrFg6u

— NFL (@NFL) December 9, 2024

Can the Eagles Now Get the No. 1 Seed in the NFC?

According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, the Eagles have a 20.8% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the second highest of any team. Here are all the teams with greater than a 1% chance to earn the top seed in the NFC:

• Detroit Lions: 58.1%
• Philadelphia Eagles: 20.8%
• Minnesota Vikings: 18.8%

What Were the Eagles’ Playoff-Clinching Scenarios This Week?

The Lions’ Thursday night win over the Packers keeps a few of the Eagles’ playoff-clinching scenarios in play. Below are the potential scenarios that would clinch the playoffs for Philadelphia:

1. PHI win + ATL loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
2. PHI win + ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
3. PHI win + ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + DET win or tie
4. PHI win + TB loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
5. PHI win + TB loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
6. PHI win + TB loss or tie + ARI loss + DET win or tie
7. PHI tie + ATL loss + SEA-ARI tie
8. PHI tie + ATL loss + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
9. PHI tie + TB loss + SEA-ARI tie
10. PHI tie + TB loss + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie

NFC Playoff Race | Week 16

1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)

In The Hunt

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)

Eliminated From Playoffs

10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)

Panthers vs. Eagles Preview and Insights

Here’s where the Panthers and Eagles rank in various Pro Football Network metrics.

Panthers
Offense+ Metric: 27th (D)
Defense+ Metric: 32nd (F)
Bryce Young QB+ Metric: 37th (F)

Eagles
Offense+ Metric: 14th (C+)
Defense+ Metric: 4th (B+)
Jalen Hurts QB+ Metric: 5th (B+)

Let’s look at some other stats and insights for the Panthers-Eagles matchup.

Carolina Panthers

• Team: The Panthers have the longest active streak of double-digit loss seasons (five straight) and are angling to extend that run sooner rather than later
• QB: Bryce Young is far from perfect (60% completion rate or lower in three straight games), but he hasn’t thrown an interception in any of those games and has taken just four sacks (106 pass attempts).
• Offense: Carolina has cashed in just three of its 10 red-zone trips into touchdowns over the past two weeks (Chiefs and Buccaneers).
• Defense: The Panthers allowed a touchdown on just two of 14 drives against the Bucs, a 14.3% rate that is their best defensive showing of the season.
• Fantasy: The game script hasn’t been an issue, and that helps the few pieces in this offense that you’re considering — Carolina is 2-2 over its past four games with a cumulative score of 93-92.
• Betting: Overs have come through in four of the Panthers’ past five games.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Team: The Eagles close the regular season with four of their final five games at home (except Week 16 at Commanders). Each of their past seven games played at home or in a neutral setting has been decided by a single possession.
• QB: Jalen Hurts has improved his completion percentage in enemy territory every season of his career, and he completed five of six such passes in the big win over the Baltimore Ravens last weekend.
• Offense: Philadelphia averaged just 4.7 yards per play on Sunday, its lowest mark in a win this season (second lowest overall).
• Defense: The Eagles pressured Lamar Jackson on 56.8% of dropbacks last week, their best rate of the season.
• Fantasy: Over 11% of Saquon Barkley’s carries have gained 10+ yards in five of his past seven games (13% on Sunday in Baltimore against an elite run defense).
• Betting: The Eagles have seen three of their past four home games go over the total (under tickets chased in their previous six games).

Bryce Young’s Turnaround

Young was one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks in 2023 and showed no improvement in the first two weeks of this season After he was benched for Andy Dalton in Week 3, it appeared Young’s days as Carolina’s franchise QB were over.

But it’s been a slightly more encouraging story since Young regained the starting role in Week 8. In fact, some now are suggesting the Panthers should build around Young rather than look for a replacement.

Here’s how Young ranks in various categories since the start of Week 8:

• 26th in passer rating
• 20th in TD/INT ratio
• 28th in completion percentage
• 23rd in EPA per dropback
• 9th in passer rating under pressure
• 15th in percentage of completions for 10+ yards
• 16th in average yards per completion

As you can see, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. However, Young’s numbers are up across the board, and he didn’t throw an interception in his last three games. He even ranks ahead of C.J. Stroud, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, and Caleb Williams in EPA per dropback since Week 8.

Additionally, Young earned top-15 QB+ grades in Weeks 9, 12, and 13, with his C+ in Week 12 representing the 11th-best score for the week.

Saquon Barkley’s Historic Season

Barkley is putting together one of the greatest running back seasons in NFL history.
The star back posted 107 rushing yards and one TD in last week’s win over the Ravens. Barkley now leads the NFL with 1,499 rushing yards and 1,766 yards from scrimmage.

With five games left, Barkley has a realistic shot at topping Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (2,105) and Chris Johnson’s single-season scrimmage yards record (2,509).

• Barkley needs 607 yards (121.4 average) over the next five games to beat Dickerson’s record.
• Barkley needs 744 scrimmage yards (148.8 average) over the next five games to beat Johnson’s record.

Barkley averaged 124.9 rushing yards and 147.1 scrimmage yards in the first 12 weeks. So, if he keeps up his current pace, he’ll set both records or come up just short.

Barkley also is tracking to break various Eagles records. He’s in third place on the franchise’s single-season rushing list and needs just 14 yards this week to move into second place. Next up would be LeSean McCoy’s franchise-record 1,607 yards, a mark he set over 16 games in 2013.

If Barkley racks up 109 yards against the Panthers, he’ll have needed just 13 games to set Philly’s single-season rushing record. Not a bad way to start your career with a new team.

As for advanced metrics, it’ll surprise no one to learn that Bakley leads all running backs in rushing EPA per game.