The Philadelphia Eagles will travel to take on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
NFL Sportsbook Promo Codes
Before we get into it, check out all the latest Sportsbooks promos nationwide. If you are already signed up with a book or aren’t interested, continue to scroll down for our pick and prediction.
Note that sportsbook promo codes will only appear if you are in a legalized area. If you’re in a state that has not legalized sports betting, you’ll see a list of top fantasy sports operators, which are available in most states.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 44.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Philadelphia Eagles continue to confound and confuse onlookers this year as they bumble their way through one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Some weeks, Philadelphia looks incredible, but then the Eagles do head-scratching things, and their head coach makes a baffling decision.
They are still the 14th-best offense and the ninth-best defense this season, but the Eagles’ strength of schedule means they are only 14th in PR+. The good news for Philadelphia is that the Dallas Cowboys are even more confounding and confusing than they are.
Dallas ranks 24th overall with the 20th-ranked offense and 26th-ranked defense. The Cowboys have played a much harder schedule (sixth-toughest), so there is some mitigation, but this is a game the Eagles should win if they don’t do something to cost themselves.
Dallas is 0-3 at home this season and has struggled mightily in all three. And with an injury concern for Dak Prescott, it’s impossible to back them. If Prescott ends up missing time, this line could move dramatically to the Eagles, so now is the time to back them.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Eagles at Cowboys Game Stats and Insights
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles are averaging 4.63 plays of 20-plus yards per game this season, the fourth most in the league, just ahead of the Commanders (4.56). The Cowboys rank 22nd at 3.13 per game.
QB: The ball hit the ground on three of four Jalen Hurts third-down passes in the Week 7 win against the Giants – he’s completed 12-of-14 third-down passes since.
Offense: The Eagles run the ball 73.6% of the time in the red zone, which is easily the highest rate in the league and a drastic bump from their already high 63.8% rate that they posted a season ago. Philadelphia is pacing to increase their red zone rush rate for a fourth straight season.
Defense: Through nine weeks, Philadelphia is allowing the third-fewest yards per game (290.1).
Fantasy: Saquon Barkley has reached 110 yards from scrimmage in seven of eight games and twice this season (including Week 9) has he had a 20-plus yard rush AND reception.
Betting: Philadelphia’s last three divisional road games haven’t landed anywhere near the close spread – all have finished more than 16 points off of the script presented by sportsbooks.
Dallas Cowboys
Team: The Cowboys are averaging just 0.13 runs of 20-plus yards this season, easily the lowest mark in the league (only three other teams even sit below 0.38 per game).
QB: Over his past five games against the Eagles, Dak Prescott has thrown 16 touchdown passes and is averaging 305 yards through the air per game.
Offense: Dallas has the second-worst turnover differential in the NFL (-1.38; only the Raiders have been worse).
Defense: By total defensive EPA, only the Jaguars and Panthers grade out worse this season than the Cowboys. On a per-game basis, Dallas is pacing toward its worst defensive season (by EPA) since 2013.
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson and Brock Bowers lead the position in games with six-plus receptions this season (five).
Betting: The Cowboys are 16-3 ATS (84.2%) in their past 19 home divisional games (four straight covers).