The final game of the Wild Card round between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be the most exciting. There are many areas in this game that you can choose to focus on, but I’ve got my eye on Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield and his matchup against this Philadelphia secondary with an Eagles vs. Buccaneers same game parlay at +425 odds.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds
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- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Eagles -160, Buccaneers +135 - Total
43.5
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question at the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with — answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and they are on the hook.
Trivia Question: The Buccaneers have won three straight divisional titles, matching their total from the first 20 seasons of this millennium. Who was their leading rusher in the season of the last division title before this current run?
The final playoff game of the week might be as fun to watch as any. Could it crash and burn if the injuries on both sides are truly limiting? That’s in play, but SGPs are about telling a story, and mine is going to involve the star players being able to suit up.
For the season, all signs point to this game having shootout potential:
- Both are top four in the percentage of opponent yards gained through the air
- Both have a top-five opponent pass rate over expectation
- Both are bottom-10 third-down defenses (top-10 third-down offenses)
- Both have an above-average opponent aDOT
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
When betting overs, I want passes to be thrown, as we either get a better chance at chunk plays or a stopped clock. In getting us to the point total, I’m putting my eggs in the Baker Mayfield basket. The Eagles have the fifth-highest opponent pass rate over expectation (PROE) this season — an indicator of where the weaknesses are in this defense.
That ranking is far more than I need to green-light Mayfield at his listed number. In his past six games when not facing a bottom-five PROE defense, Mayfield has cleared 245 passing yards in all six and has averaged 293.7 passing yards per game.
The Eagles figure to encourage the Buccaneers to pass — something the Bucs have a way of doing to themselves, courtesy of a league-low 3.4 yards per carry this season.
If I’m promoting points and passing yards, you can probably figure out where I stand on the passing touchdown total for Mayfield. In six of his past seven games against non-bottom-five PROE defenses, he’s thrown for multiple scores.
The Eagles are the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, and given the variety of options for Mayfield, the air is their best bet to take advantage of where Philadelphia is weakest.
- Trivia Answer: Earnest Graham (898 yards) led the 2007 Buccaneers in rushing.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Over 44 points, over 21.5 first-half points, Baker Mayfield over 234.5 passing yards, Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TD passes
- Odds: +425 (at DraftKings)
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