Round 4:
4.01 – Matt Ryan – QB, Atlanta
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)
Ryan has been a Top 10 (Avg) quarterback through his 11 years as a pro, throwing 20+ TDs every single year, and now nine seasons straight of 4,000+ yards. He is a model of health, having gone nine seasons straight with 16 starts until missing Week 8 of 2019.
Atlanta has an elite passing game in addition to one of the NFL’s best pass-catching corps (Julio, Ridley, Hooper). In 2019, Ryan ranks third in pass attempts (616). Passing volume is plentiful in Atlanta, and Ryan should have a minimum of 3 more years with the Falcons.
I negated the stress of a QB run by locking up my QB2 on this turn. After selecting Ryan, seven additional QBs went off the board before my next pick. Having two top 10 QBs rostered in a SuperFlex league can be a great advantage, now allowing me to also focus on hammering flex position players.
Shout out to Paulie for sniping me heading into the turn. I was hoping to lock up the Julio/Ryan stack, but not disappointed that Golladay fell to me.
4.02 – Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver
(Paul Lundgaard – @pauliessleepers – pauliessleepers.com & The Undroppables)
Still not worried about QB or TE, I wanted to go with a youthful WR here or Miles Sanders, who was picked next by Beezy. A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, and Courtland Sutton were all considered here, and ultimately, I chose Sutton due to that defense being old and in desperate need of a hard reset. If you are struggling to figure out why I would target a WR on a declining defense and why it would matter, DM me on Twitter, we need to discuss a few things. Suttons’ targets were consistent and averaged out to almost 8 per game. He is only 24, and if we see a “3rd-year leap” next season coming off of his 72/1112/6 2019, I could have the most lethal WR corps in this league.
4.03 – Miles Sanders – RB, Philadelphia
(Jake – Dabeezybff -Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)
So here I’m going to eat my words a little. Miles Sanders in the 4th was a big value. I was higher on Montgomery coming out but hard to argue with the season Sanders just put together. As part of a committee, he finished the year on a strong note once Howard went down, and he got the lion’s share of the carries, finishing the year with 179 attempts for 818 yds and 3 TDs. He added 50 rec on 63 targets for 509 yds and 3 more TDs. He showed that he was capable of handling a three-down role in the offense. I have a lot of confidence in him as my RB2, and the hope is he takes a step forward in 2020 to finish in the top 10 range.
4.04 – Cooper Kupp – WR, Los Angeles Rams
(Dan – @awlsabermetrics – 2on1: Fantasy Sports)
This was a no-brainer pick for me. The 2019 WR4 overall just fell into my lap in the 4th round. It would’ve been crazy not to take him. To be honest, Kupp burned me this year in all of my redraft leagues because I passed him up many times since I wasn’t trusting of him coming back from an ACL tear as quickly as he did. Man was I wrong- the dude crushed it! Did I mention he was the WR4 overall- after coming back in a matter of several months off an ACL tear!?
To continue this rant- he was the WR4 in 2018 through Week 5 last season before getting hurt. When he is on the field, McVay loves to scheme him open, and Goff loves to throw to him. Prorate his 2018 season and he puts up 80 receptions, 1,132 yards, and 12 touchdowns on 110 targets. Fast forward several months after an ACL tear, and all he did was 94 receptions for 1,161 yards and touchdowns on 13 4 targets.
The Rams offense as a whole wasn’t the same this year as last, but it didn’t take down Kupp. Besides a three week series of just awful matchups (Pit/Chi/Bal), Kupp was a steady plug and play WR stud. Going back to the injury part, every athlete says they don’t feel the same after an ACL tear until a year after the surgery. Kupp is still young at only 26, and by all accounts, should feel even better next year. To me, this is an early steal of the draft. Kupp should be a WR1 for years to come in that offense, and people just seem to be forgetting about him. I was able to nab him as the 14th wide receiver off the board, and I am very pleased about that.
4.05 – Kerryon Johnson – RB, Detroit
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14 – True North Fantasy Football)
This is a pick where I took a shot on a player I believe in. At only 22 years of age, Kerryon Johnson still has plenty of time for his career to blossom as an efficient playmaker and the focal point of the Lions’ backfield. Johnson will be stepping back into an offense with a plethora of skill-position weapons in Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, and T.J. Hockenson. He’ll also have Matt Stafford returning from injury ready to right the ship.
As far as opportunity, Kerryon’s upside comes in his potential involvement in the passing game. Combined, J.D. McKissic and Ty Johnson soaked up 73 targets this season for the Lions, that’s the same amount as Saquon Barkley had, seeing the 8th most running back targets on the season. If Kerryon can hog those targets, and I think he will provided he’s healthy, his floor becomes much safer.
Kerryon is someone I could see having an ascension similar to what Aaron Jones has experienced in Green Bay. The talent is there to monopolize the passing game work. Couple that with a floor of 12-15 carries per game and this could be a great price on a potential foundation piece for my team’s RB corps.
4.06 – A.J. Brown – WR, Tennessee
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFN – Pro Football Network)
I’ll be honest; I was extremely nervous I was going to miss out on this pick. After the Allen selection in Round 3, all I wanted was for one of Courtland Sutton, D.J. Moore, or Brown to fall to me. Once Moore and Sutton were selected, I thought my gamble wasn’t going to pay off. When my pick came up, and Brown was on the board still, I could not hit the draft button any quicker. To land someone with the talent of Brown in the 4th round is a steal in my book, especially after going RB/RB/QB to start my team.
Once the Titans made the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill in Week 7, Brown went ballistic once chemistry developed. From Week 12 through Week 17, Brown averaged 21.28 PPR points per game and went over 100-yards receiving four times during that stretch. He ended the season with 52 catches for 1,051 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Good enough for WR21 in PPR scoring & 9 in standard formats. We aren’t waiting for a “second-year breakout” from Brown, he has already arrived and put both the NFL and the fantasy community on notice.
4.07 – D.J. Chark – WR, Jacksonville
(Scott – @DynoGameTheory – Createarank.com)
Sometimes you just get sniped!!! I was 100% taking A.J. Brown. So, I can tell you now; Brown is definitely a top 15 dynasty wide receiver.
I didn’t love a ton of my options here. It feels like a bit of a tier break from the elite players. But with D.J. Chark, I am getting yet another young Alpha WR. At just 23 years old, his breakout is legit. He had below-average quarterback play all season, yet he still produced. He was a top 15 wide receiver in 2019 (avg PPG) and he should only get better.
4.08 – Melvin Gordon – RB, Los Angeles Chargers
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFF – Pro Football Network)
After taking Engram, and still needing a top RB, I was really hoping that at least one of Kerryon or Sanders would fall back to me at 4.08, and again, I was sniped. It seems to be a running theme in this draft of sharks. Go figure. So, I was now debating between Gordon, Conner, Gurley, and Bell with this pick, and I ultimately went with Gordon. Conner is too injury-prone for me, and Gurley and Bell are past their primes already. Gordon, on the other hand, could be in for a resurgence in 2020.
Gordon held out of the start of the 2019 season due to a contract dispute. This means he was able to rest his legs a little longer and came into the season looking strong. He’s only 26 and should land somewhere this off-season that could very easily increase his value, but it could also deflate it. If he lands somewhere like Arizona or Miami, where he’s the definitive starter, then he could be in for massive output. But if he lands somewhere like San Francisco or New England, his upside could be capped. It’s a risky pick, but in the 4th round, all of the options have some risk to them. Gordon just felt like he had the least.
4.09 – Stefon Diggs – WR, Minnesota
(Chalk – @101chalk – The Undroppables)
This pick, to be quite honest, did not afford many options that jumped off the page, so I decided to stay on-brand as my other favorites in this range (Sanders, Brown, and Kerryon) were all taken right before. I’ve been a huge fan of Diggs’ route running and playmaking ability and he is a fun player to have on your team so I am a proud owner in many leagues. The obvious downside, however, is that while he is uber-talented with that swag you just love to see from your fantasy players (See JuJu Smith-Schuster), Diggs is stuck on a terrible passing offense and tied to an average QB in Kirk Cousins.
However, even in an up and down season, Diggs continued to show his upside in several weeks and ultimately finished as the WR24 in PPR, averaging 14.1 points per game. Diggs posted over 1,100 receiving yards, and although he only had 63 receptions, his 17.9 yards per catch ranked 4th among WRs. I decided to solidify my young corps of Mahomes-Kittle-Juju-Diggs to start, and I’m feeling good with the hope that I can grab two high upside RBs in the next two rounds. Plus, all four of these guys have that intangible #brand factor. I build teams to win, but I also want players I love.
4.10 – James Conner – RB, Pittsburgh
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileo – Fantasy Football Astronauts)
This decision comes down to Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, and James Conner. With both QB situations in question for the talented wideouts, I chose to roll the dice on the health of a 24-year-old RB1. One season removed from being a top 6 running back in PPG, I believe James Conner has earned the respect of the Steelers organization. A lot of speculation occurred surrounding the replaceability of Le’Veon Bell, but James Conner stepped in seamlessly. It was not the same case for Conner’s replacements, who managed inconsistent performances marked with injury and obvious talent discrepancy.
They may have liked Jaylen as a change of pace option and hoped Benny could provide depth as a bruiser, but neither could muster the consistency and reliability of Conner. If Pittsburgh decides to draft a guy, I expect it to be a later round investment as they work to rebuild their resources elsewhere and find their quarterback of the future. Whether that QB is Roethlisberger or not, the run game will be always be featured as the Steelers reclaim their identity as the defensive powerhouse of the AFC.
4.11- Keenan Allen – WR, Los Angeles Chargers
(Randal K – @FF_Terminator – The Undroppables)
Another talented pass catcher that I didn’t expect to be staring at when I was on the clock. There were actually three names I considered here, which is one advantage of being one from either end of the snake. You can pretty much peg your competitors’ position group, but more on that later. By all accounts, Keenan Allen had a “down” year. Yet he closed 2019 with seven consecutive games of five or more receptions. His final stat line 104/1199/6 was good enough for WR6. At 27 years old, Keenan Allen is entering the prime of his career: there is plenty left in his tank. Even if Philip Rivers spends his 2020 at daycare. I’ve now paired two top 10 wide receivers with my two young quarterbacks. A solid foundation for any Superflex dynasty team.
4.12 – Allen Robinson – WR, Chicago
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB – 2on1: Fantasy Sports)
After starting the draft RB/RB/TE I either needed to grab a QB since it’s Superflex or go for the best value and start to build my WR corps. I opted to focus on WR and could not pass up Allen Robinson sitting there at the end of the 4th round. Robinson is another unsexy pick IMO as he was one of the unsung heroes of 2019, and as my dude @FBstoner puts it, the most disrespected WR in the game. ARob was the 8th overall WR in PPR formats, despite having Trubisky as his QB. He scored under 10 points only three times this season and returned to similar numbers as his top 10 WR campaign in 2015.
At 26 years old, Robinson is on the verge of hitting the second stage in his career and is no longer a spring chicken by NFL-perspective. However, even as the solidified WR1 on the Bears, the firing of OC Mark Helfrich and a recommitment to Mitch Trubisky leaves Robinson’s 2020 outlook with some uncertainty. But at this point in a 12-man draft, all of the other WR1s were already drafted, and I was pleasantly surprised by what ARob did this year. With a 2019 ADP of WR29 and 70 overall, I’m still confident in ARob outperforming his ADP again in 2020 at WR19 and 48 overall in this mock draft.
Round 5:
5.01 – Tyler Lockett – WR, Seattle
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB – 2on1: Fantasy Sports)
Tyler Lockett was a WR1 lock for the entire #2on1Crew coming into 2019, as all of us were super high on Tyler. While Lockett wasn’t a disappointment as he improved on his 2018 numbers, he just barely missed WR1 territory at WR13 in PPR formats due to inconsistent games (5 out of 15 games under 10 points), the emergence of DK Metcalf, and a fluke injury (missed Week 13). Even with DK performing like the freak athlete that his workout pictures showed, Lockett still had plenty of big games to win weeks and prove he’s still a major factor in this offense.
At 27 years old, he’s also not a young buck anymore, but like ARob, I feel they both have at least 2-3 solid years of high-level production left in their tanks. Which, for me, is all I’m really looking for in dynasty as I’m in a constant “win-now” mode only looking a few years down the road. I also feel there’s always time in the distant future to blow up a team and rebuild. I’m projecting another 1,000+ yard season for Lockett, barring injury, given his 90% weekly average snap share and continued usage as the team’s WR1.
5.02 – Calvin Ridley – WR, Atlanta
(Randal K – @FF_Terminator – The Undroppables)
Calvin Ridley closed his sophomore season with the same workmanlike stat line he managed as a rookie… In three fewer games! I don’t think it’s any coincidence that 27% of Julio Jones’ production came in the final three weeks of 2019. When Ridley was sidelined with an abdominal injury. The offseason should allow him to heal nicely and reclaim his spot in one of the games most prolific passing offenses. We may be witnessing a changing of the guard here, and even if Julio manages to stave off father time for a couple more seasons, a bad defense and shaky running game ensure there are plenty of balls to go around.
5.03 – Mark Andrews – TE, Baltimore
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileo – Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Lamar Jackson is straight fire and Greg Roman knows how to deploy the tight end. Mark Andrews was a touchdown stud this season and a fantasy anomaly with a crazy high amount of points per snap. While regression is possible in 2020, I am concerned here with only one number: 23 – The age of both our Pro Bowl heroes, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Like quarterback, tight end is a position where I’m happy to settle with a top-end option that I can plug and forget. Andrews owners will be able to do just that with the youngest QB-TE pairing in the league.
5.04 – Jimmy Garoppolo – QB, San Francisco
(Chalk – @101chalk – The Undroppables)
In Superflex startup drafts, I rarely leave the 5th round without having two QBs as a foundation. Depending on what position you are drafting from, a single QB run can cripple an unprepared fantasy owner’s team construction. In fact, I may or may not have started such a run myself with my selection of Gucci here. As I started with Mahomes at the top of the draft, I looked for a safe QB2 with a decent floor and stable situation.
The 49ers may be a run-dominant team, but Kittle and Deebo are playmakers with the ball in their hands, capable of taking any reception to the house. Garoppolo threw for nearly 4,000 yards (3,978) with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball with three running backs. Although those are not eye-popping numbers, they’re solid and were good for a QB14 finish. That also seems like a nice floor for my QB2. I debated going with a younger (and more promising) QB in Jones or Darnold as I actually have them slightly higher in my dynasty rankings, but I wanted to lean a little more “win-now” with a player in a more stable situation.
5.05 – Daniel Jones – QB, New York Giants
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFF – Pro Football Network)
At this stage of the draft, having my first position player at each starting position, I decided to go back to quarterback since it’s a Superflex league and QBs will most likely be taken more often between this pick and my next, and there aren’t that many left that I’d like to start on a weekly basis. There are a few veteran options available, but I really want to build this team for the long haul, and seriously consider Daniel Jones to be one of those pieces that is in my lineup for years, so he’s my pick at 5.05.
I know what you’re thinking. This is a little early and probably a reach, but I honestly think he’s got the skills and surrounding cast to grow in value in 2020 and beyond. Add to that the stack with my 3rd round pick in Evan Engram and it was a no brainer for me. There were others I considered, but I wanted to focus on QBs earlier than other positions given how hard good ones are to find. Welcome to the team, Mr. Jones!
5.06 – Sam Darnold – QB, New York Jets
(Scott – @DynoGameTheory – Createarank.com)
In a Superflex Dynasty startup, you can certainly still choose to wait on a quarterback, but don’t try and get too cute. When the value shows itself, jump on it. Darnold is my QB8 in dynasty and I land him here as QB14. I like that a lot.
Picking in the middle of the pack is an advantage because the runs on various positions don’t get too far out of reach. I just didn’t want to push my luck too much.
I also considered drafting Todd Gurley here. I don’t think he will make it back to me, but I just wasn’t too sure about his future role. There is a slew of nice WRs that I have in a similar tier, so I’m sure one of them will be there for me on the comeback.
5.07 – Jared Goff – QB, Los Angeles Rams
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFN – Pro Football Network)
Knowing how to read a draft lobby and see when a run will start is a crucial skill and can make your pick for you before it even gets to you turn. That’s what happened here as I knew the QB run was about to hit. Three QBs went before me that were all in the range of guys I wanted. Behind me, three of the five teams only had one or none quarterbacks on their roster. My pick became easy at this point. Take who was left of that tier and move on. That ended up being Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams.
At QB15 off the board, I’m perfectly happy with this pick. I don’t need a stud quarterback for my Superflex spot. I need a reliable QB who has talent around him with upside. That is precisely what Goff gives me. Goff finished the year as QB13 on the season even though he tied for 1st in attempts (626) and was 3rd in passing yards (4,638). What kept him from being another top-10 finish was the reduction in touchdowns from 2018, throwing 22 last year. Some of the most talented players in the NFL surround Goff, and he is on an offense that ran the 8th most passing plays in 2019 (62%). He is locked up on the Rams through 2024, and I expect to see solid QB2 production the entire way.
5.08 – Jameis Winston – QB, Tampa Bay
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14 – True North Fantasy Football)
Generally, if you’d ask me whether I wanted a 26-year-old quarterback who just threw more than 30 touchdowns and had the 8th best passing yardage season of all time, I’d say sign me up. When you tell me that quarterback is Jameis Winston…hesitations arise. Along with those 30+ touchdowns, Jameis is the inaugural member of the 30 and 30 club. He’s the first QB of all time to throw for at least 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. A dubious distinction.
With that said, I think Jameis, the QB5 in fantasy this season, will be going back to the Buccaneers in 2020. Despite the interceptions, Winston fits well in Bruce Arians’ scheme. He can and will (clearly) throw the ball all over the yard, and we saw that lead to fantasy success. From a dynasty lens, at best, Winston sticks with the Bucs, continuing to produce in a high octane passing offense. At worst, Jameis will still be fantasy relevant as a shorter-term, potential journeyman in the mold of Ryan Fitzpatrick. YOLO quarterback play is in his blood, and I’m here for it.
5.09 – Kirk Cousins – QB, Minnesota
(Dan – @awlsabermetrics – 2on1: Fantasy Sports)
I was the first person to take the dive into three quarterbacks. Some teams don’t even have one yet! This was a pick that I didn’t NEED to make, but it was something I’ve been wrestling with dynasty Superflex startups after getting in a few over the summer. Having a strong third quarterback option was something that showed to be very important to the best teams. Whether it be to protect yourself with injuries, or if another team needs a viable starter, having three very startable quarterbacks allows me to feel safe in my team.
Now, I am not a proponent of starting your draft with 4,5,6… straight QB picks, I don’t think that is a successful strategy, three in the first five rounds even is a bit much for me. But, being able to completely solidify my QB room before any other team makes me feel good with the most important position in SuperFlex leagues. Also, this is fantasy. I don’t care about primetime wins and losses. I’ve had people argue with me over Cousins because he can’t win big games, but until fantasy starts giving points to primetime wins, I couldn’t care less about his W/L record. As long as he puts up points and is a viable fantasy QB, I will continue to draft when he makes it around to me.
Kirk Cousins was also someone for me who was at a tier-break over the next options. He is still relatively young at 31 years old with no real health concerns. Cousins is a set-in starter and just had his worst career fantasy finish as a starter at QB18 overall. Prior to that, he has always been a QB1. If the Vikings started the season actually passing the ball, I’d be willing to bet he could have made up the 21 total points separating him and the QB12 overall. I suspect the offensive play calling to be more balanced/look more like weeks five and on, rather than the early season of 2019. He finished last season with 425 completions. This season he only had 444 attempts! This was a down year for him fantasy-wise, and I expect a return to his previous QB1 ways starting next year.
5.10 – Matthew Stafford – QB, Detroit
(Jake- Dabeezybff – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)
I went after the value at RB and WR early in the draft, but now I had to get a QB. Matthew Stafford was the guy. He only played in 8 games this year, but he looked good in those eight games. Detroit is trying to find an identity, and as much as they want to be a ground and pound team, it’s not how they win games. With KJ, Golladay, Jones, Hockenson all coming back, Stafford is going to have to put the ball in the air for them to keep pace in the games. I’m looking for them to add a few playmakers this offseason as well, putting Stafford’s value on the rise.
5.11 – Todd Gurley – RB, Los Angeles Rams
(Paul Lundgaard – @pauliessleepers – pauliessleepers.com & The Undroppables)
Here is where I usually start looking for QBs in a Superflex format. This past season, I drafted guys like Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen in this area. Well, there was a seven QB run prior to my pick and all of the QBs I would consider in that “tier” are now gone.
Once again, no worries. I won championships this year with the Jackson/Allen combo as well as with a Cousins/Fitzpatrick combo. Anyway, I couldn’t pass on Todd Gurley with this pick as my RB2. At only 25 years old, Gurley should still have several more productive seasons. I believe his 2019 decline was more due to awful offensive line play and a shift in schemes midseason more than it had to do with the arthritis issue. He still had 12 TDs and will continue to be the go-to guy in goal to go situations. Many other analysts and I believe this offense will bounce back in 2020. It has too much youth and talent not to.
5.12 – Michael Gallup – WR, Dallas
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)
In 2019, Gallup had the breakout many were hoping for by eclipsing 1,000 yards with an impressive 16.8 yards per catch(10th). He more than doubled his 2018 production as we continued to see Amari Cooper perform with weekly inconsistency. The Cowboys will have to decide if they want to sign Cooper long term. In my opinion, the Cowboys should tag him in a “prove it” year. If the Cowboys decide to move on, Gallup becomes the WR1 in Dallas.
The creativity that Kellen Moore brought to Dallas as OC is evident when looking at the numbers. The Cowboys set a franchise record for most yards (6,904) and most passing yards (4,751) in a season. We have seen Dak’s pass attempts go up every year since entering the league and should be good for 600+ attempts in 2020. Gallup is 23 years old and a top 20 Dynasty WR with room to grow.
For Part 2 CLICK HERE!
RECAP:
So what do you think so far? Is this dynasty startup mock draft going how you’d expect? Stay tuned for Rounds 6-10 coming soon, but in the meantime, hit us up on Twitter @PFNDynasty with what you think about who’s winning and who’s getting their butt kicked. Also, continue to visit the Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis like the PFN OSM data while also visiting our Fantasy Football section for more coverage.
Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF