If you compete in a dynasty fantasy football league, it’s never too early to look ahead to next season — or to talk trades with opponents who aren’t as savvy as you. With that in mind, these are some of our favorite dynasty RB trade targets for the 2022 fantasy football season.
Evaluating AFC Dynasty RB Trade Targets for 2022
Which two RBs should you target from the AFC? One is already an elite contributor, and the other could soon follow in his footsteps.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
If you read my writing on PFN and elsewhere last summer, you know what my biggest warning was: fade Derrick Henry in drafts. Among all other NFL RBs with 350+ touches and 700+ snaps in a season, their average fantasy-point drop the following season was 44%. How much did Henry drop last season? 42%. Yes, historical data matters.
Now the question is whether Henry can return to dominance in his age-28 season, and hopefully at least a little beyond. The chances are better than 50-50, even at this relatively advanced stage of his career. Unlike some of his contemporaries, Henry had a limited offensive role in his first two seasons and then amassed only 230 touches in Year 3.
The problem was that Tennessee ran him into the ground in 2019 and 2020. Assuming the Titans have learned what the Panthers and most other teams should have already learned, they can probably prolong Henry’s career — and therefore, his effectiveness — if they keep him around 250-275 touches rather than 375+.
Signed for the next two seasons, Henry should remain a top-12 RB, even if the team curtails his role a bit (thanks to D’Onta Foreman, for example). If you’re paying near-elite value in dynasty, you’re obviously paying too much. But if you’re buying him as a low-end RB1 for the next two years at least, given his ceiling, that’s a bet worth making.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Nothing written about Javonte Williams can match the excitement of those who are all in on fantasy’s “next big thing.” In some serious dynasty leagues, he might already be a top-three RB. He’s No. 7 on the PFN Fantasy Team’s RB dynasty rankings, and you can thank analyst Tommy Garrett for that; he ranked Williams at No. 4.
Conversely, you can blame me for underestimating him because he’s only my No. 11 dynasty RB. It’s not that I don’t trust him as a high-upside fantasy asset. But he’s facing two significant obstacles. The first concerns Melvin Gordon; if he remains with Denver, he’ll cap Williams’ ceiling in the near term, even if Williams still manages to creep into the top 10-12 in a 1A backfield role.
The other obstacle concerns RBs in general and whether someone who’s never exceeded 12.8 carries per game in a season (dating back to high school) can be an effective multi-year NFL bell cow, especially considering Williams’ intense running style. Is Williams an amazing young talent? Absolutely. Does he merit the hype as an elite dynasty RB? Not now.
Evaluating NFC Dynasty RB Trade Targets for 2022
In the NFC, two well-known veteran backs with long track records could be acquired for less than they’re worth.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
We know the deal with Ezekiel Elliott. The questions we don’t generally hear answered are “why” and “what does it mean for the future?”
My research shows that running backs with excessively high snap counts are highly likely to regress the following season and that that regression grows larger as the running back gets older. For example, since 2012, 50 RBs have exceeded 700 snaps in a season. 42 (84%) had fewer fantasy points the following season. Among all 50 RBs, the average differential was a 30% drop in points.
Zeke has been No. 1 or No. 2 in RB snaps in each of the last four campaigns while averaging a whopping 856 snaps per season. That’s an insanely high average and represents a major yellow flag. If we’re playing the probabilities, as we should be, then Elliott should be sold in dynasty if you can secure at least top-18 RB value — preferably top-16.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey is one of the toughest RBs to figure out on the field and in fantasy. ESPN’s David Newton recently reported that the Panthers have been entertaining offers for McCaffrey, who was drafted No. 8 overall in 2017. In 2018 and 2019, the franchise enjoyed having one of the greatest players in the game. Now, after two injury-plagued seasons, which CMC will we see going forward?
Let’s remember that when healthy, McCaffrey remains a top-three RB. OK, maybe top-five. We can debate the specifics. But the point is, few backs possess his combination of power and versatility. On a PPR level, his abilities translate into elite fantasy production. If you’re a risk-taker, invest in a 25-year-old with a nearly unmatched floor. If things break right, he’ll give us two to three more fantastic years.