2021 Dynasty QB Rankings | 1-5
5) Dak Prescott
4) Lamar Jackson
3) Kyler Murray
2) Josh Allen
1) Patrick Mahomes II
Getting a top-five QB on your dynasty team could set you up for years of sustained success. There are no “wrong choices” in this range, but we must nitpick to separate these incredible dynasty talents.
QB5) Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Young, elite, long-term contract, offense full of playmakers — what’s not to love when it comes to Dak Prescott?
Ever since his first year out of Mississippi State, Prescott has shown continuous growth. From 2016-2019, he averaged 3,944 yards on 340 of 517 passing attempts (65.8%) with 24 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Prescott is also a threat as a rusher, averaging 60 attempts for 305 yards and 5 touchdowns per season. He was the QB6, QB10, QB10, and QB2, respectively, averaging 18.3 ppg during this span.
Prescott was on course to destroy these numbers in 2020 and en route to a potential MVP. But, unfortunately, his season was cut short following a brutal ankle injury.
Prescott threw for 1,856 yards (371.2 yards per game) in four and a half games, completing 68% of his passes (151 of 222) with 9 touchdowns and 3 more on the ground. Prescott’s first five games single-handedly won fantasy managers their weeks, scorching defenses to the tune of 27.9 PPR points per game (QB2). In his four complete games, Prescott was the QB19, QB1, QB4, QB1, respectively.
Although I don’t think he will put up these numbers every week for an entire season, they will be sprinkled in enough to be felt by managers. The Cowboys’ offense is loaded with talent from CeeDee Lamb to Amari Cooper, along with Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup, and Blake Jarwin.
Still in his prime, Prescott is as good as they come. Unfortunately, he drops a spot due to the uncertainty of returning from injury, but he’s still an easy pick to have inside the top five dynasty QB rankings for 2021.
QB4) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Some might find the ranking of the 2019 NFL MVP to be blasphemous. To be clear, this has nothing to do with his talent. Lamar Jackson is an elite QB and is the most dangerous rushing quarterback in the NFL. He does not get the credit he deserves as a passer, and his surrounding talent — or lack thereof — has played a massive role in this.
The concern, and what limits his ceiling compared to other QBs above him in 2021 dynasty rankings, is volume and the offense. Baltimore attempted the fewest passes (406) last season and has rushed more than anyone else four years in a row.
Concurrently, a lot of those rushes came on Jackson’s legs. Over the past two seasons, Jackson has 2,211 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. That’s 848 more than Kyler Murray, who is next with 1,363. Even against RBs, Jackson is elite. His 73.7 yards per game is 10th most over the last two seasons. We haven’t even discussed his arm or the personnel changes yet.
As I mentioned, Jackson is a better passer than given credit. While his touchdowns did regress from 2019 (36), he still completed 64.4% of his 376 attempts for 2,757 yards and 26 touchdowns while averaging 22.8 ppg. Marquise Brown, while talented, is not a WR1, and the Ravens addressed these concerns with Rashod Bateman, Tylan Wallace, and Sammy Watkins.
The offensive script is unlikely to flip around, but we could see a slightly higher passing percentage. More importantly, we should see a more efficient passing attack. Jackson has week-winning upside via his rushing attack and is an easy top-10 QB in dynasty rankings for 2021.
QB3) Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Settling the choice between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen for the QB2 and QB3 may best be determined by a coin flip. However, Allen does hold a 10-spot advantage over Murray in our overall 1QB rankings.
At any rate, in 2020, we saw a sizeable jump in Murray’s game in his second year in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Of course, it also didn’t hurt to add in DeAndre Hopkins, either. Murray threw for nearly 4,000 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. In addition, he rushed for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns. Murray would finish the season as the QB2 in 2020 — and seemingly, no one noticed.
Last season, Murray was consistent for fantasy managers. Making 16 starts, Murray was a QB1 (top 12) in 11 games, giving him a start percentage of 68.75%, second only to Rodgers at 81.25%. The lone downside to his season is the decline during the back half of the season. Murray was a QB1 just three times over the final eight weeks after going 8-for-8 to open the 2020 season.
Part of this downslide was the lack of rushing touchdowns that came so easy early on. For instance, 10 of Murray’s 11 rushing TDs came by Week 10. As a result, his weekly average dropped from 30.1 ppg (QB1) to 17.1 (QB14) in the back half of the year.
Nevertheless, with 35% of the red-zone carries leaving with Kenyan Drakes’ departure, Murray could see more crucial carries than ever before. When you also factor in another season with Hopkins and the addition of the dynamic Rondale Moore, Murray could be sensational in 2021.
QB2) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
What Allen did in his third year was nothing short of remarkable. No duo in the NFL was more fun to watch than Allen and his new best friend, Stefon Diggs. The two absolutely dominated defenses last season.
Allen had a breakout campaign in 2020, completing 396 passes (69.2%) for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns. He was the QB1 on the season and the only player to exceed the 400-point total (25.5 ppg).
No one could foresee the Bills becoming a passing-first team last year. In fact, from 2017-2019, the Bills attempted passes 52.1% (31st), 52.2% (29th), and 54.9% (26th) of the time, respectively. Then 2020 hits and they vault to 11th in the rankings with 61.71%. Maybe we should have seen it coming with the addition of Diggs as a sign of a change in philosophy, but not to this extreme.
There are zero reasons to see this changing in 2021, given the success they saw as an organization after capturing the AFC East crown. Allen took his game to a different level, and the Bills have already picked up his fifth-year option. This gives them two seasons to work out a long-term deal. We’re sure that a deal will get done from now until then, and that is why he comfortably comes in as the QB2 in our consensus dynasty rankings.
QB1) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
We’ll allow time for you to come down from the shock. We can hardly believe it ourselves. Sarcasm is still a thing, right?
Patrick Mahomes is on the trajectory to go down as the greatest QB of all time and is on the best offense in football. At only 25 years old, he has 114 TD passes in just 46 games.
Since 2018, the Chiefs have scored 165 touchdowns (first in the NFL). Mahomes has been directly involved in 72.7% of those scores (120). So when it comes to consistency, it isn’t even close.
2018 – Mahomes had an average weekly finish of QB6.7.
2019 – Mahomes had an average weekly finish of QB10.7.
2020 – Mahomes had an average weekly finish of QB8.9.
You know what, we can do better.
Let’s take out the Week 17 games…
2018 – QB6.1
2019 – QB9.8
2020 – QB8.9
Now, let’s take out games where Mahomes suffered an injury and left mid-game…
2018 – QB6.1
2019 – QB8.7
2020 – QB7.9
That’s a three-year average of QB7.5. Over 45 games, Mahomes has finished as the QB12 or better 33 times, QB4 or better 14 times, and QB1 seven times. Mahomes has more weeks as the QB4 or better (14) than he does weeks as QB13 or worse (12), and that is even including games where he was injured and Week 17 games.
There’s nothing left to say. Mahomes is as good as it gets, and anyone else on top of a set of 2021 QB dynasty rankings would just be trying to be contrarian. Don’t make fantasy football more complicated than it needs to be.
Want more fantasy football analysis and news?
Be sure to follow us on Twitter (@PFN365) to stay current with all things around the NFL and the upcoming 2021 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.