With one season ending, another begins. The 2023 NFL season is now officially in the books, and that means looking forward to 2024. Things will change with time, but we’re here to take a look at a fantasy football dynasty mock draft as things stand right now in February.
This league has a non-PPR setting, though I will admit that the difference between full/half/non-PPR for a dynasty league impacts my rankings less than it does for a redraft environment.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at where the chips fall for a league that is starting from scratch (we’ll get to rookie drafts with time, but here is a start for your 2024 dynasty rookie rankings).
2024 Dynasty Mock Draft | Round 1
1.01) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
What more can be said about the back-to-back reigning Super Bowl champion at this point?
Patrick Mahomes‘ touchdown rate in 2023 was a career-low 4.5% (career: 6.1%), and that limited how impactful he was in our game, but nothing in his profile suggests that he’s anything but an elite option at the position.
“We’re not done.” 👀
Patrick Mahomes says this is just the start of a dynasty for the #Chiefs.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) February 12, 2024
Mahomes has sat out one game over the past three seasons, and the help at pass catcher in 2023 is at the low end of expectations moving forward with Kansas City looking to add support on that front.
Although Mahomes’ rushing abilities may not be comparable to those of the next two picks, it doesn’t impede his ability to compete with them in terms of productivity.
Additionally, due to less strain on his body, Mahomes has the potential to maintain his elite performance for a longer period of time.
1.02) Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
There have been 19 quarterbacks to produce a season with at least 25 touchdown passes over the past three years (11 of them have done it multiple times). Jalen Hurts‘ name, however, is not on that list.
It doesn’t matter.
Until they remove the Brotherly Shove, Hurts’ access to “easy” points is second to none. He leads all players in rushing scores over the past three seasons (38 — same as Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley combined over that stretch), a floor elevator unlike anything anyone else at the position has.
Why Hurts over Josh Allen? More confidence in his pass catchers.
While Stefon Diggs showed age down the stretch of 2023 and Gabe Davis continues to be Gabe Davis, Hurts has access to a lethal tandem of receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
1.03) Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
We knew Josh Allen‘s rushing was a skeleton key entering 2023 (6+ rushing touchdowns in each of his first five seasons), but I’m not sure any of us had a 15-touchdown year penciled into his upside.
Will Allen continue to be used as a battering ram? Reasonable minds will differ if dynasty fantasy managers should even want that, but I saw enough growth from him as a passer to give me confidence in his stock regardless.
MORE: Fantasy Football Updated QB Dynasty Rankings
Allen’s aDOT (average depth of target) in 2023 was essentially identical to what he posted in the two seasons prior. Yet, his completion percentage was more than three percentage points better.
Given that Buffalo was willing to acquire Diggs to help support Allen, I’m confident that they will rebuild this pass-catching corps with time should Diggs’ best days be behind him.
1.04) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase has cleared 1,000 yards and scored at least seven times in all three of his seasons and has his franchise quarterback locked in. What more could you ask for?
Chase is a versatile receiver who proved capable of handling plus volume in 2023 (100 catches) and carries as high a weekly ceiling as anyone at the position.
For me, his value doesn’t hinge on Tee Higgins’ future. Chase is an alpha receiver with a strong quarterback set to get him the ball for years to come.
If I was starting an NFL franchise, I’d pick Justin Jefferson over Chase, but that’s not the exercise. The difference in talent, in my opinion, is more than offset by the stability under center — but you’re not going wrong with either after the elite quarterbacks are off the board.
1.05) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson missed seven games in 2023, and yet, his name is present atop basically any “early career” leaderboard that you look at.
- 2023: 2% drop rate
- Career prior: 4.4% drop rate
Jefferson has reached 100 receiving yards in 29 of his 60 career games (48.3%), creating a floor that is as good as it gets at the position. DK Metcalf and CeeDee Lamb have combined for 29 such games over those four seasons.
While the uncertainty under center is enough for him to be ranked behind Chase for me, it doesn’t remove Jefferson from the top tier of receivers. That keeps him above the second tier of QBs that come off the board next.
1.06) Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
This is somewhat of a leap of faith given that we’ve only seen four games from Anthony Richardson. However, his physical profile was paying off in a major way before suffering the season-ending shoulder injury, which should be viewed as an expectation for the foreseeable future.
Is he more likely to get hurt than other QBs? Maybe, but with a solid build and development, I’m not docking Richardson for getting hurt as a rookie.
We’ll see if Michael Pittman Jr. leaves town this offseason, a development that would certainly hurt Richardson’s immediate ceiling. That said, Richardson’s game is tailor-made for fantasy and only gains value in non-PPR settings, as a higher percentage of matchup points come from the QB position than in leagues that reward receptions.
1.07) Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
I think we can dismiss 2023. Joe Burrow‘s season ended early, and he entered it banged up. It was a tough year for those who invested in Cincinnati’s franchise QB, but not one that I think should impact his value moving forward.
Burrow was the only player to throw for 30 scores and complete 67% of his passes in both 2021 and 2022 — passing production that ranks him favorably to everyone not named Mahomes when looking forward.
In a perfect world, Higgins remains on this roster to give Burrow a pair of game-breaking receivers. But great quarterbacks can elevate those around them, and I have no doubt that Burrow can do that should he need to work in some new talent.
1.08) Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
The two-time MVP saw his completion percentage spike to 67.2% in the first season under Todd Monken’s tutelage (62.3% in 2022), making him the type of dual-threat asset who can take over a fantasy league (821 rush yards).
MORE: Best Ball Fantasy QB Rankings 2024
Lamar Jackson‘s talent isn’t a question, plus he has Monken pulling the strings, not to mention a trio of promising skill players with their best football very much in front of them (Zay Flowers, Keaton Mitchell, and Isaiah Likely).
Jackson had a great season in 2023, and I expect that level of success to translate to fantasy numbers in a more significant way in the years coming than it did last season.
1.09) C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
The 4,108 yards and 23 touchdown passes as a rookie are one thing, but how about just five interceptions on 499 attempts? I don’t mind interceptions from a fantasy perspective; however, the lack of them showed that C.J. Stroud is capable of processing professional defenses at a high level, and that is what I’m happy to bet on.
Stroud showed poise well above his age and his trajectory is nothing but promising given the pair of playmakers at his disposal in Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
He’s not going to be a threat to produce at a high level on the ground and that is why I can’t elevate him above this point, but I expect Stroud to offer a strong floor for the next decade with a peak season that could well result in him finishing among the elite at the position.
1.10) Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
There isn’t much doubt in my mind about the talent of Justin Herbert, and now he has a head coach that should help him regain the consistency that has been lost over the past two seasons.
Harbaugh has proven willing to work around the strengths of his players as opposed to forcing a system onto his team, and that could well unlock Herbert to put up annual numbers that are in the same neighborhood as Burrow and not far off of Mahomes.
1.11) Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill has 76 deep receptions since joining the Dolphins, 19 more than any other player over that stretch and 31.9% of his total receptions. He is simply a splash play waiting to happen and while some defenses proved capable of slowing him for a quarter or two, stopping Cheetah for 60 minutes seemed near impossible in 2023.
Hill is clearly comfortable with Tua Tagovailoa as his quarterback and that is creating a tandem that will be as feared as any over the next handful of years.
Hill is likely at the end of his peak years and should he lose a step, his value could fall in the next few seasons, but without much in the way of injury red flags or tangible signs of decline, I’m not overthinking this, and I am comfortable in labeling him as a dynasty building block.
1.12) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboy franchise record holder for receptions and yards in a single season, CeeDee Lamb has established himself as one of the most feared receivers in the game.
At 6’2″ and averaging 13.0 yards per catch through four seasons, it’s no secret that Lamb can make the big play, but with him leading all receivers in slot receptions last season (69), he’s blessed with the perfect mix of layup targets and game-breaking opportunities.
2024 Dynasty Mock Draft | Round 2
2.01) Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Stacking a quarterback with a pass catcher is something I very much try to do in the early rounds — if I’m comfortable enough to draft the pass catcher, I’m already, to some degree in most situations, betting on the quarterback responsible for getting him the ball, so why not double down when the opportunity presents itself?
Dak Prescott is coming off of a career year in completion percentage and threw 30+ passing touchdowns for the third consecutive healthy (13+ games played) season.
The rushing production is a thing of the past when it comes to what you can consistently count on and that narrows his range of outcomes, but with his ability to sustain drives (only the Chiefs and Bills have more red-zone trips since 2021), this is a nice high-floor play that is unlikely to result in regret on your end.
2.02) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Twice in the history of the Lions has a receiver had 95 catches and a 70% catch rate:
- 2023 St. Brown: 119 catches, 72.6% catch rate
- 2022 St. Brown: 106 catches, 72.6% catch rate
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked fifth in the league in targets per game in 2023 and has proven more than capable of earning targets at an elite rate at all levels. Jared Goff doesn’t offer the optimism of the QBs responsible for the production of the receivers ahead of St. Brown in this draft, and that keeps the latter out of my first round, but not by much.
2.03) Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Guess how many yards from scrimmage and touchdowns Bijan Robinson had during a rookie year where we all questioned his usage and were lining up to fire Arthur Smith?
I bet your guess was low. Robinson finished with 1,463 yards and eight scores. Not bad for a season that we felt underserved on.
Despite his attempts seemingly being capped, Robinson had a 20+ yard touch in eight of 17 games, showcasing his elite versatility throughout his first season. It might sound crazy, but the stat line mentioned above could be something of a floor — he’s a second-rounder based on the position he plays, but he should be able to produce at an elite level.
2.04) Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The list of quarterbacks with four rushing scores and 500 attempts in each of the past two seasons is short: Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence.
Is it possible that Lawrence underachieved in 2023 and that his outlook can still be positive? He is still a high-pedigree passer who hasn’t turned 25 years of age and has a solid offense built around him. Calvin Ridley wasn’t consistent in his return to the NFL, but if he can prove to be a true WR1, the versatility of Lawrence that we fell in love with is still in his profile.
I understand the skepticism on Lawrence, but if you want to double up on the QB position to open your draft, getting a player with this level of upside is a build that has my interest.
2.05) Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Breece Hall was the ninth-most effective running back on a half-PPR points-per-touch basis in 2023 despite playing in an offense that lacked creativity. Some young RBs walk into a perfect situation and decline after that, while others get stuck in below-average offenses and require some time to hit their stride.
Hall got us almost 1,600 yards in 2023 — a season in which nothing went right. I’m never in a hurry to spend a high draft pick on a running back, but if I am going to pull the trigger, it’s for a young versatile back that can take every touch to the house.
Embrace any discount you get from the lack of confidence in his organization, Hall’s future is as promising as any at the position.
2.06) A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown has cleared 1,400 receiving yards in both seasons since being freed from Tennessee and continues to check every box put in front of him. Are there some consistency issues? Maybe, but with his aDOT sustaining and his catch rate improving, the profile as a whole is one to invest in.
No receiver was targeted on a higher rate of routes run against man coverage, an ode to Brown’s ability to either separate when isolated or to earn the confidence of Hurts as a bail-out option. He’s a WR1 that you can feel as good about in dynasty as you do in redraft.
2.07) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Only time will tell when it comes to how quickly the Lions truly unleash Jahmyr Gibbs, but scoring 11 times and averaging 5.4 yards per touch is a pretty good first impression to leave on the NFL.
David Montgomery played alongside Gibbs as Detroit again went with a committee backfield that produced strong numbers for both backs involved, but what if Gibbs assumes a bell-cow role?
He was nothing short of special during his rookie season, a campaign that saw him top 15 carries just twice. He owns the fluidity in the passing game of an Alvin Kamara with yards-after-contact numbers that topped both Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson in 2023.
What we saw in 2023 was the beginning of something special, not a flash in the pan.
2.08) Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
How the Justin Fields/top overall pick drama works out in Chicago is TBD at the moment, but Fields has produced three very similar seasons up to this point, and while we want to see growth (maybe a new situation would help that), the current version of him is a pretty fantasy-friendly one.
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For his career, Fields averages 7.6 fantasy points per game with his legs, a cheat code in our game, and a skill set that only exists in the elite at the position. He proved capable of targeting an alpha receiver at a high rate in 2023, and assuming that he has such a weapon at his disposal in 2024, I’m optimistic that the best days are very much in front of this uniquely gifted QB.
2.09) Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray has seen his game count decline in each of the past three seasons (16-14-11-8), an obvious concern for a player who relies on athleticism to pay the fantasy bills.
That said, the upside is undeniable (4,790 passing + rushing yards in 2020 with 26 passing scores and another 11 on the ground) and the pass-catching cupboard has upside in the form of Trey McBride and Michael Wilson.
Murray is a sleeping fantasy giant to a degree, and that makes him a strong QB1 for any manager who didn’t spend a first-round pick on the position.
2.10) Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
You could argue that based on rare talent, Garrett Wilson should go even higher than this, but with QB question marks, this is roughly the right spot for the promising Jet.
Wilson has posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to open his career, a minor miracle given the lack of consistency under center in Gotham. Those limitations have capped his upside (seven career scores in 34 games and 315 targets) and a lack of confidence in this organization to upgrade the position long-term is what drags Wilson’s stock down a touch.
Yes, Aaron Rodgers (assuming health) would be a monster short-term upgrade, even if he is only 75% of the player we remember, but let’s not forget that he turned 40 years old in December and this team lacks direction behind him.
2.11) Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love certainly did enough down the stretch of the 2023 regular season and into the playoffs to prove to the Packers that he is their guy moving forward, and I think that carries over nicely into our game.
There are nits to pick without question (his accuracy has a hit-or-miss quality at times, especially downfield, and his mobility is nothing more than ordinary), but a 25-year-old in a stable situation with a handful of promising skill-position players developing alongside him isn’t a bad way to spend a second-round dynasty selection.
MORE: How To Win Your Dynasty Fantasy Football League in 2024
You’ll notice that we are getting toward the end of a tier when it comes to the quarterback position, and that is going to drive the value of signal-callers at this point in the draft. This manager knows that if they pass on a QB in this swing of picks, the drop-off that occurs is dramatic before they are back on the clock in Round 4.
2.12) Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Yes, dynasty is generally a game of being ahead of the curve, but that doesn’t mean that a player like CMC is rendered useless. This manager lands arguably the top player at two positions with their first two picks, and (keep reading) you’ll notice that the receiver position is deep enough that even in a format that elevates them, talent can be had after the first two rounds.
Christian McCaffrey is averaging 5.9 yards per touch since joining the 49ers and has scored 31 times in those 27 regular-season games. The term “dynasty” comes with the assumption that you’re building for the next decade, and while that is true to a degree, don’t let a reliable talent like this fall too far (turns 28 in June) — championships in the short term are just as fun as ones earned down the road!
2024 Dynasty Mock Draft | Round 3-6
3.01) Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.02) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
3.03) Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
3.04) Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
3.05) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
3.06) Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
3.07) Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
3.08) Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
3.09) Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
3.10) Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
3.11) Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
3.12) Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
4.01) Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
4.02) De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
4.03) DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
4.04) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
4.05) DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
4.06) Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
4.07) Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
4.08) Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
4.09) Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
4.10) James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
4.11) Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
4.12) Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
5.01) Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5.02) DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
5.03) Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets
5.04) Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
5.05) Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
5.06) Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
5.07) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
5.08) Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
5.09) Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
5.10) Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
5.11) Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
5.12) Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
6.01) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
6.02) George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
6.03) Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
6.04) Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
6.05) Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
6.06) Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
6.07) Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
6.08) Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
6.09) George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
6.10) Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
6.11) Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
6.12) Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
So where does the damage sit after six rounds (listed by position, not order of selection)? Let me know @KyleSoppePFN which team you like the best, and where, if you had your choice, you’d be selecting in a start-up dynasty draft!
- 1st Pick: Mahomes – McCaffrey – White – Rice – Flowers – Evans
- 2nd Pick: Hurts – Love – Walker – Olave – D. Smith – Addison
- 3rd Pick: Allen – Rodgers – Cook – G. Wilson – Waddle – Diggs
- 4th Pick: K. Murray – Tagovailoa – Pacheco – Chase – Kupp – Pickens
- 5th Pick: Fields – Cousins – J. Taylor – Jefferson – Adams – McLaurin
- 6th Pick: Richardson – Watson – Gibbs – Cooper – London – Andrews
- 7th Pick: Burrow – Goff – K. Williams – Brown – Smith-Njigba – D. Samuel
- 8th Pick: Jackson – Hall – Aiyuk – Metcalf – Ridley – LaPorta
- 9th Pick: Stroud – Lawrence – Pollard – Jav. Williams – Collins – Pittman
- 10th Pick: Herbert – Bijan Robinson – Kamara – Nacua – Moore – McBride
- 11th Pick: Purdy – Achane – Hill – St. Brown – Dell – Kittle
- 12th Pick: Prescott – Etienne – Stevenson – Lamb – Higgins – Reed