Perhaps the most important part of dynasty fantasy football is trading. After all, once your startup draft is complete, trades are the only way to acquire veteran players. Buffalo Bills players Stefon Diggs, James Cook, and Dalton Kincaid are all markedly different dynasty assets right now. How should fantasy managers treat these players going forward?
Should You Trade Stefon Diggs in Dynasty?
What to do with Diggs? Entering the 2023 season, Diggs was someone I wanted to target. Dynasty managers often look to jettison players as they push 30, discounting the notion that they still have 3-4 good years left. That’s how I felt about Diggs.
For the first half of the season, it looked brilliant. From Weeks 1-9, Diggs averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game. Had he continued on that pace, it would’ve been a career-high year for him. Diggs showed zero signs of decline.
Then, we saw a seismic shift the likes of which I’ve never seen before. We’ve seen elite players fall off a cliff. That happens all the time. But I can’t think of a single player to completely crater seemingly overnight the way Diggs did.
May I remind you Diggs was the overall WR3 in points per game from Weeks 1-9 (removing Justin Jefferson because he got hurt)? From Weeks 10-17, though, Diggs was completely unstartable. He averaged 9.0 fantasy points per game. He had just one game with double-digit fantasy points.
Diggs is now 30 years old. I’ve always thought his skill set would age well because he doesn’t rely on athleticism to produce, but it’s hard to deny what we saw over the second half of the season.
Players as old as Diggs who show obvious signs of decline rarely just snap out of it. Is it possible with an elite talent like Diggs? Sure. But Diggs saw a career-low 10.3 aDOT (average depth of target), and he was a glorified extension of the run game. He got next to nothing downfield, and there was no effort to get him the ball near the goal line.
The question fantasy managers must ask is what would they expect to change in 2024?
Given the brand name, Diggs’ dynasty value is not going to just crater. It will drop enough for this to be an incredible buying opportunity if you buy that he can return to being a 16-points-per-game receiver for the next three years. I do not.
Final Verdict: Sell
Should You Trade James Cook in Dynasty?
It felt like Cook had a pretty good year, right? He ran for 1,122 yards. He caught 44 passes for 445 yards. Cook’s 5.6 yards per touch was good for fifth in the league. He was sixth in yards per route run, showing his proficiency through the air.
The problem with all of this is he only managed 13.7 fantasy points per game, good for an RB19 finish.
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That production is useful. Cook is going to remain a fantasy-relevant asset for the next five years. My concern is that I don’t see how it gets any better.
Josh Allen isn’t going anywhere. His existence makes the Buffalo Bills’ offense as prolific as it is. A lesser quarterback may not rush for 15 touchdowns, but the team would also score less overall.
The problem is that Allen’s stealing of touchdowns doesn’t even really matter. If it wasn’t Allen, it would be Latavius Murray or Leonard Fournette. Basically, it’s anyone other than Cook.
While still the clear lead back, Cook only saw four goal-line carries the entire season. Of Cook’s six touchdowns, only half came from closer than 18 yards out, and of those three, two of them were receiving.
Cook had two rushing touchdowns on the season. He had one from the goal line and one from 24 yards out. That’s it.
Cook is still only 24 years old. He’s not the age at which you should be looking to sell. There’s also a shortage of trustworthy fantasy backs right now, but Cook’s ceiling is capped. If you can move him in exchange for someone with a higher ceiling, I would do it.
Final Verdict: Sell
Should You Trade Dalton Kincaid in Dynasty?
The 2023 season was the year of rookie tight ends. Kincaid didn’t lead the charge, but consider him Sam LaPorta’s first general in the rookie tight end brigade.
Kincaid caught 73 passes for 673 yards and a mere two touchdowns. That was good for 9.4 fantasy points per game and an overall TE14 finish. Those are tremendous numbers for a rookie tight end.
Most notably, though, Kincaid’s production spiked once Dawson Knox went down. While that looked like the start of Kincaid’s ascent, upon Knox’s return, his production plummeted. Kincaid averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game in five games without Knox compared to 7.4 points per game in 11 games with him.
With that being said, Kincaid is clearly a talent. He’s 24 years old. Tight ends don’t typically reach their final form until they’ve been in the league for 3-4 years.
Kincaid was drafted to replace Knox as the primary tight end. I expect that to be the case beginning in 2024. If Kincaid’s fantasy manager is concerned at all, you should be looking to pounce.
Final Verdict: Buy