Perhaps the most important part of dynasty fantasy football is trading. After all, once your startup draft is complete, trades are the only way to acquire veteran players. Tampa Bay Buccaneers players Rachaad White, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are all difficult players to evaluate. How should fantasy managers treat these players going forward?
Should You Trade Rachaad White in Dynasty?
One of the most important aspects of being an effective fantasy analyst is accountability. White was one of my biggest fades in 2023. It was a good lesson for me in properly weighing a player’s situation, opportunity, talent, and — most importantly — cost.
White is very clearly a bad runner. He was one of the least efficient running backs on the ground as a rookie and somehow got even worse as a sophomore.
Knowing this, I cautioned everyone to avoid White because if he continued to be ineffective on the ground, he would inevitably get replaced.
I failed to properly account for three things. First, the Bucs truly did not have anyone … at all. The backs behind him were so much worse that it didn’t matter. White was never losing that job.
Second, White is an elite receiver. His 12.7% target share was only 13th at the position. Yet, he caught 64 passes for 549 yards. White led all running backs with a 91.4% catch rate. Given that he was also the primary goal-line back, he was able to score nine total touchdowns.
Third, there was cost. My fade of White began before ADPs were fully set. I assumed he would go in the fourth round. When I saw he was going in the sixth, the fade should’ve been off. When I saw what his price was in dynasty, the fade should’ve been off. Yet, I persisted.
White is not devoid of talent. It’s actually quite incredible to see a player so clueless on the ground be so dynamic when he catches the ball out in space. It legitimately doesn’t make sense.
Somehow, White led the NFL in carries against a light box yet managed to average 3.6 yards per carry on the season. This guy who can’t even break off big runs against five-man boxes was able to average 7.8 yards per target.
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White saw a 77.4% snap share. The Bucs’ offense was better than expected, and they won the division. I fail to see why they’d move on from him.
Even when the Bucs inevitably sign or draft another running back, there’s absolutely zero threat to White’s role as a receiver — and that’s really all that matters.
White averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game. Even if we chop off 100 carries, which is unlikely to happen, White would’ve still averaged 13.7 points per game. He would’ve gone from a low RB1 to a mid RB2. That’s still a valuable fantasy asset.
Final Verdict: Hold
Should You Trade Mike Evans in Dynasty?
In retrospect, it was a pretty bad process by yours truly to write Evans off. He showed no signs of decline and just averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game last season … on a mere six touchdowns.
Furthermore, he did that with awful quarterback play from a completely cooked Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield was always going to be an upgrade on Brady, and I had this position before the season. Yet, I faded Evans. It didn’t make sense.
Evans has been arguably the most consistently reliable producer in all of fantasy over the past decade. His worst season was 13.4 fantasy points per game. Since 2018, he’s averaged between 15.0 and 18.1 points per game every year.
I don’t think Evans has the skill set that will age extremely well. He’s a big dude, standing at 6’5″, 231 pounds. But because of his size, he will be able to remain an end-zone threat even after his skills start to diminish. When will that happen? No one knows for sure, but I don’t think it will be this season.
While Evans has been quite durable throughout his career, he’s no stranger to the injury report — he’s just been able to play through his nagging injuries. We saw another guy with similar issues. His name is Julio Jones. The end of him as a top NFL receiver came at the age of 31.
Evans will be 31 years old this season. There’s a chance this is the year he falls off, but I think he’s got two more in him. What is that worth in dynasty?
This is a situation where team circumstance matters. If you are a clear contender, Evans is the type of guy you can buy for cheap. Because he’s old, a rebuilding team really has no use for him. By the time that team is ready to compete, Evans will be 32 or 33 years old and probably done.
Even for a contending team, I doubt anyone is projecting Evans for more than two years left as a startable fantasy asset. He’s not part of your long-term plans. But in the short term, Evans can probably help fantasy managers win a championship in 2024 and maybe 2025.
Final Verdict: Contenders Buy, Rebuilding Teams Sell
Should You Trade Chris Godwin in Dynasty?
It’s wild that Godwin is going to essentially go his entire career without ever getting a chance to be an NFL team’s WR1. He’s only ever known Evans opposite him.
Godwin is 28 years old. That’s far from old and he’s nowhere near done, but unless Evans leaves Tampa, Fla., Godwin may not get a chance to be the clear top guy until he’s 30, or until he leaves himself.
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Godwin had his breakout season in 2019, averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game. He was the overall WR2. At that point, Godwin looked poised to be a WR1 for the next decade. Instead, he largely stagnated. Godwin posted two high-WR2 seasons and one mid-WR1 season over the next three years.
Unfortunately, the production plummeted in 2023. He still reached 1,000 yards, but the drop in overall passing volume really hurt him. His target share actually ticked up, but without Tom Brady throwing the ball 700 times, Godwin didn’t have the efficiency to make up for it.
Godwin averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game. He barely finished as a WR3. It was his worst season since 2018 when he was merely a sophomore.
A big part of Godwin’s problems was the lack of end zone work. He scored two touchdowns all season. When the Bucs got close, it was either run it with White or throw to Evans.
Godwin has never been a big touchdown guy. His career high in a single season is nine, which he did just once. I look at Godwin’s 2023 season and struggle to see how it gets much better going forward, outside of some touchdown variance.
Given Godwin’s age, his value is not going in the toilet. He has a skill set that I think will age very well. I could see him remaining effective until age 33/34. At the very least, he should have five good years left. That’s not someone you can buy for dirt cheap. But given what we’ve seen from him in the past, now is not the time to sell, either.
Final Verdict: Hold