Trading for running backs is a dangerous move in anything beyond a redraft fantasy football league due to the shelf life of even the best backs.
Your league-mates are looking to adjust their Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco’s dynasty ranking after something of a breakout season, their New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara’s dynasty outlook after another reception-heavy season, and their Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison’s dynasty view with him penciled in as a 2024 starter.
Should you be looking to bolster your roster with any of these running backs?
Should You Trade Isiah Pacheco in Dynasty?
“Buying” a running back requires some context. Much like NFL teams, successful dynasty fantasy teams don’t overpay for the RB position, so make sure you’re price-sensitive in the trade streets.
That said, this Pacheco breakout looks every bit legit. The situation is ideal (featured back in a consistently effective offense), and the skill development is encouraging.
- 2022: 0.86 routes per carry
- 2023: 1.30 routes per carry (51.2% increase)
The Chiefs used him as a legitimate threat –- not just a dump-off option –- in the AFC Championship Game, and if that forecasts his future role, Pacheco’s strong 2023 is the tip of the iceberg, not an outlier.
Players over the past 20 seasons that averaged at least 3.0 yards per carry after contact on 170+ carries in each of their first two seasons:
- Adrian Peterson (2007-08)
- Kareem Hunt (2017-18)
- Saquon Barkley (2018-19)
- Nick Chubb (2018-19)
- Isiah Pacheco (2022-23)
Pacheco’s unspectacular career at Rutgers is very much in the rearview mirror at this point. The angriest runner in the NFL has what it takes to succeed in a significant way for the next few seasons, which lands him on the short list of running backs that I’d consider trading for this offseason.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Alvin Kamara in Dynasty?
Kamara turns 29 in July, and that puts him in a dangerous spot on the RB career curve. However, it should be noted that a player with his skill set could age with grace (27.7% of career touches have come through the air).
Kamara giving fantasy managers 75+ catches in 2023 for the fifth time in seven seasons is encouraging. His involvement in the passing game doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, and that creates a viable fantasy floor.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
On the downside, Kamara’s days with a meaningful ceiling appear to be coming to a close. His yards per catch in 2023 were down 28.9% from his rate through six seasons, a bad sign if we assume that his reliance on his production through the air is only going to increase with time.
- First four seasons: 5.0 yards per carry
- 7th of 61 qualifiers
- Last three seasons: 3.9 yards per carry
- 47th of 55 qualifiers
At this point, Kamara is a known commodity, and no one in your league is going to value him entering 2024 the same way they did just a few years back. Understanding that his unique role could save him from the feared cliff that most running backs fall off of as they approach 30 years of age.
I’m not actively trying to get rid of Kamara. I don’t think he’s a league winner anymore, but he should be viable for at least one more season. That’s enough for me to hang onto as opposed to selling at a supreme discount.
Final Verdict: Hold
Should You Trade Alexander Mattison in Dynasty?
Mattison was trusted with a lead role last season and easily set a career-high in carries, but the fantasy production wasn’t impressive.
For a third straight season, he failed to average even 4.0 yards per carry (2023 RB average: 4.2 ypc). That’s not even the most damning of statistics when it comes to underlining Mattison’s inability to break big plays.
The last time Mattison had a rush gain of more than 21 yards came on Oct. 10, 2021. For reference, 104 players had such a carry in 2023, a list that includes New England Patriots WR Tyquan Thornton, Chiefs QB Blaine Gabbert, and Washington Commanders RB Derrick Gore.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Mattison turns 26 in June, an age that doesn’t scare me. But with no proof that he can excel at this level, his favorable role projection isn’t nearly enough to entice me.
There were 35 running backs with at least 150 carries last season. Only three of them failed to average 0.6 half-PPR points per touch:
33. Chuba Hubbard: 0.59
34. Mattison: 0.58
35. AJ Dillon: 0.53
Players like Mattison are the beauty of dynasty. I’m not sold on him in the least, but should he continue to project as Minnesota’s bell cow, there will be a trade market for him among win-now teams. I’d be more than happy to take future draft considerations or an upside receiver in a Mattison-centric deal.
Final Verdict: Sell