Perhaps the most important part of dynasty fantasy football is trading. After all, once your startup draft is complete, trades are the only way to acquire veteran players!
New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave, Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins, and Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson are three wideouts at different stages of their careers. How should fantasy managers treat these players going forward?
Should You Trade Chris Olave in Dynasty?
Those of you who have been following me for a while know that Olave was my guy last season. He was the guy I thought would make that leap from the WR2/3 border to near-WR1 levels. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen.
ELITE concentration by #Saints WR Chris Olave on this TD grab 😮💨
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 7, 2024
Olave did improve, though. While his target share dipped slightly, it was still a healthy 25.2%. And anything over 25% is what you want from a WR1.
Olave caught 87 passes for 1,123 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game, good for a WR19 finish.
Near the line of scrimmage, Olave is excellent. If that’s all he ends up being, he can still be a solid WR2 in fantasy for the next decade. Fortunately, I do think better days are ahead.
MORE: FREE Fantasy Football Dynasty Trade Analyzer
Despite missing a game, Olave was fourth in the league with 32 deep-ball targets. His 13.3 aDOT (average depth of target) was 20th. The Saints were trying to get Olave the ball downfield, but the passes just didn’t connect.
According to Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz, Olave was second in the league with 1,144 unrealized air yards. If even a small fraction of those were completed, he likely finishes as the WR1 I thought he would be.
Olave has proven he’s very good at football, and he’ll turn just 24 years old this season. While his quarterback situation with Derek Carr is less than ideal, there are far worse situations he could be in. Plus, Olave will likely receive a QB upgrade at some point in his career.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade DeAndre Hopkins in Dynasty?
The default position on any wide receiver over age 30 and past his prime is going to be to sell. Of course, few things in fantasy football are that straightforward.
It’s abundantly clear that Hopkins is not the same guy he was in Houston. The Hopkins we saw in Arizona already wasn’t that guy, but there’s a difference between a player being past his prime and simply nearing the end of his career.
A guy who has reached the age cliff is completely irrelevant to fantasy football. He’s not going to average 13.2 fantasy points per game like Hopkins did last season.
Fantasy managers who experienced Hopkins being an elite WR1 for the better part of six years will undoubtedly have those seasons impact their perspective. It can be tough to alter your outlook on a guy from being a top-five option at his position to just a solid WR3.
Hopkins will be 32 years old this year. The Titans could cut him, especially since they’re in the midst of a rebuild. If not, this will almost certainly be his final year with the team.
Historically, Hopkins is right at the age where wide receivers experience a steep decline in ability. However, we’ve seen his decline over the past couple of years, and it very much appears to be gradual. Plus, he’s not the type of receiver who relies on raw athleticism to produce.
With some of the best hands in NFL history, Hopkins could potentially remain effective until age 34/35. The problem for fantasy managers is he’s unlikely to return to being a huge impact player. So, you must ask yourself how valuable Hopkins is to your dynasty roster.
If you’re a rebuilding dynasty team, there’s no sense in hanging onto a guy like Hopkins. Even if he ends up remaining useful for another 2-3 years, your rebuild isn’t going to stagnate because you traded away a solid WR3.
Contending teams with Hopkins will likely receive more value by holding him rather than selling. But if you don’t already have him and need that extra piece to round out your starting lineup, Hopkins is not a bad guy to go after if he’s cheap.
Final Verdict: Sell
Should You Trade Michael Wilson in Dynasty?
It probably doesn’t feel like a decision regarding Wilson is a big deal, but it might be. He flashed enough as a rookie to make us believe he has a legitimate upside. Wilson also was able to crest the necessary 500-yard receiving threshold, catching 38 passes for 565 yards.
As a rookie, Wilson had just three fantasy-relevant games all season. Two of them came in Weeks 17 and 18 when no one was starting him/fantasy football was already over.
Wilson dealt with poor QB play for half the season, but even after Kyler Murray returned, his production didn’t actually increase. The only encouraging part is Wilson closed out the season with two of his best games of the season.
It’s extremely early in Wilson’s career. However, most wide receivers break out in their second or third seasons, so we’re approaching an early inflection point on Wilson’s dynasty value.
If he takes a big step forward in 2024, Wilson’s cost to acquire will be much more at this point next year. If not, he’ll be cheap, but you won’t want him.
Now is the time to decide on Wilson. Fantasy managers just need to accept they very well may get it wrong.
Wilson is 24 years old, and his rookie season was good enough. He’s tethered to a young, talented quarterback who is more than capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant receivers.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
WR Marquise Brown’s contract is up, and by all accounts, he’s expected to move on. Even if the Cardinals draft Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson would be the presumptive favorite for the WR2 role.
You’re not going to build a dynasty without taking any risks. Wilson doesn’t have WR1 upside, but there’s nothing wrong with a solid WR2, which he’s very much capable of becoming. I lean more on the side of buying Wilson now while he’s cheap and hoping things pan out in your favor.
Final Verdict: Buy