Perhaps the most important part of dynasty fantasy football is trading. After all, once your startup draft is complete, trades are the only way to acquire veteran players!
San Francisco 49ers players WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, and RB Elijah Mitchell are at different points in their careers. How should fantasy managers treat these players going forward?
Should You Trade Brandon Aiyuk in Dynasty?
Coming out of college, I was a bit skeptical on Brandon Aiyuk. I wasn’t completely out by any means, but being a four-year player who didn’t break out until his age 21 season was concerning. I needed to see it first.
Brandon Aiyuk 🔥🔥🔥
Would you be comfortable with him as your WR1 in a dynasty league? pic.twitter.com/3An0g25Q1z
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 19, 2024
Aiyuk immediately proved he belonged. He took a little while to get going as a rookie, largely due to injury, but wound up amassing 748 yards and averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game. Between his excellent rookie year production and first-round draft capital, there was no longer any reason to doubt Aiyuk.
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Then, his sophomore year happened. Aiyuk played all 17 games but caught just 56 passes for 826 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged a paltry 10.0 points per game. The down year made him a value in 2022. I wish I could say I capitalized, but I did not.
Fortunately, after the 2022 season, I was in. Between the presence of RB Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel’s perceived status as the WR1, and the lack of full belief in QB Brock Purdy, Aiyuk was looking like a value in 2023. He delivered.
Despite having the most competition for touches in his career, Aiyuk had his best season. He caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 15.6 points per game. Aiyuk firmly established himself as the 49ers’ WR1. Samuel is the more explosive player overall, but Aiyuk is the better pure receiver.
Aiyuk’s 3.18 yards per route run ranked third in the league, and he was second in yards per target and second in yards per reception. He did this on just 105 targets. Imagine what Aiyuk could do if his 25% target share was part of a larger pie?
Now, that’s not going to happen in San Francisco. But it doesn’t need to. Aiyuk’s floor is that of a mid-WR2. And if the volume ever came, he could be a WR1.
At just 26 years old, Aiyuk has plenty of excellent football ahead of him. It’s worth noting that he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal. While I fully expect the 49ers to extend him, that’s not a foregone conclusion. Regardless, Aiyuk has the talent to excel just about anywhere.
Final verdict: Buy
Should You Trade George Kittle in Dynasty?
I hold steadfast in my belief that George Kittle is the best tight end in football. While, he’s obviously not the best fantasy tight end, in terms of everything a tight end does, Kittle is the best and has been the best for quite some time. Unfortunately, that hasn’t always resulted in great fantasy production.
Kittle is still very much in his prime. Even at 30 years old, I have no concerns about him slowing down. We’ve seen the best tight ends play well into their mid 30’s, and Kittle can do the same.
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What does concern me is this very noticeable trend in his fantasy points per game. He averaged 16.0 points per game in 2018. That was a long time ago, but somehow, Kittle’s points per game average has declined every single year since. It bottomed out at 12.7 points per game in 2023.
Ironically, 2023 was one of the best years of Kittle’s career. He caught 65 passes for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns. It was just the third 1,000-yard season of his career. And the six touchdowns tied 2021 for the second-most in a season in his career. His 15.7 yards per reception were also a career best.
Since 2018, Kittle has never finished lower than the overall TE6. He should remain a top-six tight end for a few more years, but he’s just no longer a difference maker at the position in fantasy.
Tight ends are worth paying a premium for when they are giving you a substantial edge. Kittle may be a strong TE1, but he’s producing the equivalent of a random mid-WR3. This is despite leading all tight ends with 2.3 yards per route run and 11.3 yards per target and finishing second with a 9.5 aDOT (average depth of target).
With Kittle, it all boils down to perception. Because of his obvious immense talent, he has historically been treated like an elite TE1, something he hasn’t been since 2020. If your league is still treating him that way, then he’s probably worth more in a trade than on your roster.
At the same time, it’s very easy to end up in a situation — especially in dynasty — where you’re stuck rolling out guys like Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Cade Otton or Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee. Don’t trade away Kittle unless you have a viable replacement.
Final verdict: Sell
Should You Trade Elijah Mitchell in Dynasty?
The NFL can be a cruel place sometimes. A guy with Mitchell’s athletic measureables, combined with what he did as a rookie sixth round pick, should not be relegated to seldom-used backup. Yet, that has been Mitchell’s fate since the 49ers acquired McCaffrey.
Of course, CMC isn’t the only thing holding Mitchell back. He’s dealt with a ton of injuries during his three short years in the NFL. Mitchell has played in a total of 27 out of a possible 51 games in his career. Most of those games were missed due to a knee injury… and not the same one.
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Mitchell had the worst season of his career in 2023, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. But it’s still fair to say that he would thrive as the lead back somewhere.
For now, he is McCaffrey’s handcuff. Despite all the injuries, whenever Mitchell is healthy, the 49ers have made it clear that they prefer him to Jordan Mason.
In 2024, Mitchell’s plight will be the same. If you roster him in dynasty, you know he has no value unless McCaffrey misses time with an injury.
However, Mitchell’s rookie contract is up after this next season, and the NFL currently has a bit of a running back problem. There are several teams that could really use an upgrade.
It’s too early to say what the running back landscape will look like in 2025, but Mitchell could end up getting a starting job somewhere. Or, at the very least, he could be the 1b in a committee.
If you have Mitchell, there’s no sense in selling him — you’re not going to get anything of significance. But for a rebuilding team, he could be a sneaky buy for cheap on the hope that he ends up as a starter in 2025.
Final verdict: Hold/Buy