The idea of exploring a Puka Nacua dynasty trade may sound like malpractice after his historic rookie season, but is his fantasy football value at such a point where you should at least entertain the idea?
A veteran like Keenan Allen also makes for an interesting trade target, as does Elijah Moore after a bizarre season in Cleveland — let’s dig in!
Should You Trade Puka Nacua in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
From his first NFL snap, Nacua looked the part of a fantasy football asset. He’s a big body (6’2”) who was earning targets at a high rate and producing well above expectations for a receiver who didn’t have 50 catches in a collegiate season.
Who would you prefer to have on your roster for fantasy football in 2024?#Rams WR Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua?
(Via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/buT09j2cgo
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 25, 2024
Nacua’s record-breaking first season saw him rank in the top 10 in the league in targets, catches, and receiving yards — numbers that don’t pile by accident.
That said, I’m pumping the breaks a bit on considering Nacua among the very elite in the game. The monster package that you can get in return is appealing to me when it comes to building out a roster.
Traditionally, receivers that burst onto the scene the way Nacua did succeed from the slot. That’s a profitable spot on the field that leverages quick-twitch athletes and allows the reception count to remain stable given the efficiency of those routes.
Nacua route tree
- 58.3% catch rate in slot (NFL WR avg: 65.8%)
- 67.7% catch rate out of slot (NFL WR avg: 61.6%)
More concerning, for me, than the lack of efficiency on those opportunities is the lack of usage.
Last season, just 22.5% of Nacua’s targets came from the slot. Over the past five seasons, rookie receivers who racked up 1,000 yards were either rare physical mismatches down the field (Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown) or carried significant slot usage (the other qualifiers: 39.4% of targets came in the slot).
MORE: Should Rams Puka Nacua Be Selected Outside of the Top 12 WRs in 2024?
I’m not suggesting that Nacua will be a bust in 2024 or isn’t a foundational piece moving forward. But with Matthew Stafford entering his age-36 season, Cooper Kupp theoretically healthy for an entire offseason, and the NFL having time to adjust to what he excels at, there’s more risk in this profile than most assume. Thus, I’m happy to listen to the big offers coming in.
Should You Trade Keenan Allen in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
The fantasy football impact of Jim Harbaugh is a bit of a moving target given how long he’s been away from the professional game, but there are some positive markers to consider for Los Angeles’ new head coach.
At the end of the day, Allen is a situational buy. The veteran receiver’s résumé points to consistency when healthy and even upside — given his role expansion in 2023 — along with an improving quarterback. That’s great if you’re going to be competitive.
When building long-term, you’re probably better off looking elsewhere. Allen relies on volume (he hasn’t had a 50-yard catch since 2018), and if Father Time kicks in, his decline could come in a hurry.
In situations like this, I’d be more willing to invest in a young playmaker with splash-play potential — options like Tank Dell or Jordan Addison — who have their best days ahead of them.
Remember that dynasty leagues are much more fluid than redraft. Building a winner is much more of a process, and as long as you’re realistic with yourself about the state of your roster, you should be able to make a sound decision on your level of interest in terms of Allen.
Should You Trade Elijah Moore in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Moore is an interesting case study as the former second-round pick prepares for his fourth season.
Elijah Moore didn’t have the year that many had hoped for in 2023, but could year two in Cleveland lead to big things? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/1SE9p1AYRj
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) February 14, 2024
Up to this point in his career, Moore has yet to have a season where he catches even 57% of his targets, a red flag given the number of routes he runs. But much of that number is the result of ugly QB play that followed Moore from New York to Cleveland.
MORE: Dynasty Trade Advice — Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr., and Gabe Davis
In 2023, Moore’s numbers were slightly better when Deshaun Watson was healthy, which was encouraging given that he’s the QB of the future. Moore caught 62.9% of his Watson opportunities and saw a target on 22.2% of his routes, a number well ahead of the 17.1% rate he posted following Watson’s injury.
I’m buying Moore as a stable option, though I do have my concerns about what his ceiling can be. Over the past two seasons, he’s caught just one of 11 end-zone targets, a stat that can again be blamed on quarterback play to a degree, but not entirely.
Could Moore turn into the pre-George Pickens version of Diontae Johnson? Something like 85-90 catches for 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns? I think that is very much in the range of outcomes, and that’s not how he is currently priced in the trade market.
Hold onto Moore for now — better times are ahead.
