Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr., Houston Texans WR Tank Dell, and Washington Commanders WR Curtis Samuel are three wide receivers fantasy football managers may find involved in trade discussions.
How should fantasy managers handle these players going forward?
Should You Trade Michael Pittman Jr. in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Few things pain me more in fantasy than being a year early on a player. Pittman was my No. 1 target in 2022. I wanted to draft him in all redraft leagues and advised dynasty managers to do what they could to acquire him. Of course, things didn’t work out as expected.
#Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. is set to be a free agent this offseason. After a productive year in Indianapolis, he could end up playing elsewhere in 2024.
Where would you like to see him play from a fantasy football standpoint? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/bTH4YLv5rj
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 25, 2024
In 2022, Pittman did see the volume I expected, but since the quality of targets was so bad, he turned 141 targets into 99 receptions for 925 yards and four touchdowns.
Pittman averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game, good for a WR21 finish. He was fine. He wasn’t a massive bust, but Pittman didn’t have the breakout I thought he would.
Pittman’s 2022 season led to me abandoning ship in 2023. What a mistake that was.
Last year, Pittman had the season I thought he would the year prior. His 30.5% target share was fourth in the league. He was also targeted on a whopping 28.1% of his routes run, eighth in the NFL.
In addition to the volume being there, the efficiency improved as well. Pittman was still mostly utilized near the line of scrimmage, as evidenced by his 7.9 aDOT (average depth of target). However, his 2.08 yards per route run was 23rd in the league.
Given the current talent at the wide receiver position, combined with Pittman losing his starting quarterback a month into the season, that’s quite impressive. He finished last season with 109 catches for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game.
Imagine Pittman with a full season of Anthony Richardson. Imagine him scoring at a rate commiserate with his yardage.
Pittman should’ve scored around seven touchdowns last season and easily could’ve finished as a WR1. The arrow is firmly pointing up on his dynasty value.
Currently a free agent, right now might be the single best time to trade for Pittman. And when reading the tea leaves, it very much sounds like he’ll be testing the waters come March.
If he returns to the Colts, Pittman will be 26 years old and tethered to a young, talented QB on a team that lacks any clear threats to his receiving volume. If he leaves, odds are he signs with a WR-needy team. Even if Pittman has more competition for targets, if he lands in the right spot, the quality of targets could offset a potential decrease in volume.
I really think there’s a chance Pittman signs with the Kansas City Chiefs. If that were to happen, just imagine how valuable he will be.
It’s difficult to envision a scenario where Pittman signs somewhere and isn’t at least as valuable as he is now. But it’s quite easy to envision a scenario where a new team increases his dynasty value. Pittman is very much worth acquiring via trade.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Tank Dell in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
The Texans’ rookie wide receiver is a great example of how quickly fortunes can change. Dell was far from a terrible prospect, but at 5’8”, 165 pounds, going to one of the worst offenses in football, it’s a stretch to say fantasy managers were excited about his rookie season.
Fortunately for Dell, C.J. Stroud exceeded all expectations. As a result, so did Dell. If you recall, Stroud asked the Texans to draft Dell in the third round. The team obliged, and it’s fair to say they thank Stroud for his recommendation.
In his rookie season, Dell — who profiled more as an underneath guy — established himself as a downfield threat, as evidenced by his 14.3 aDOT. He posted some impressive efficiency metrics as a rookie, including his 2.36 yards per route run (14th in the NFL) and 25% targets per route run rate (20th).
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
Dell averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game in 11 games, finishing as the overall WR18. While a broken leg cut his rookie season short, what he did in those 11 games should have fantasy managers extremely bullish on his long-term outlook.
Dell is one of the older sophomore wide receivers you will see, turning 25 years old before the end of the year. Still, he’s not old.
Dell is tethered to Stroud for at least three more years, and Nico Collins‘ presence should not detract from what Dell can do. Dell’s already proven he can be a fantasy WR2 with Stroud.
As everyone on the team gets better, Dell’s ceiling should only get higher. He’s very much worth trading for.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Curtis Samuel in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Once slapped with the “injury prone” label, Samuel has now played at least 15 games in four of his last five seasons. Fantasy managers now shouldn’t be concerned about his health; the real issue should be his production.
Samuel has been around for a while now. He was drafted in 2017 and used mostly as a gadget player as a rookie. With just 115 receiving yards, him still being in the NFL already makes him an outlier.
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Despite his poor rookie season, I always thought Samuel had talent. It just never really manifested itself into fantasy production until 2020. That season, he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game. However, it’s really the only time in his career he was ever fantasy-relevant for an extended period of time.
Injuries limited Samuel to just eight games in 2017 and 2021, so we can throw those seasons out. In every other season, he averaged between 9.8 and 10.7 fantasy points per game. He’s very consistently been just good enough to roster, but not good enough to start.
Now entering his eighth professional season, Samuel will be just 28 years old. He’s going to be an asset to an NFL team for another 4-5 years. The question is whether he can be an asset to your fantasy team.
Samuel is set to hit free agency once again, and at this point, I would be surprised if he returns to Washington. However, since he’s not a WR1, and perhaps not even a WR2, Samuel could realistically sign anywhere.
If he lands in the right spot, there’s WR3 upside. But the most likely scenario is more of the same.
Final Verdict: Hold