Does a Jonathan Taylor dynasty trade make sense for your team? How about rolling the dice on Brian Robinson Jr. after an encouraging season or Jerome Ford behind Nick Chubb in Cleveland?
Making roster moves can be difficult in any format, especially ones that impact multiple seasons. The math behind making a deal gets even more complicated when centered around the RB position, given the limited shelf life.
Dynasty trades are largely dependent on your specific situation, so let’s sort through the situations in which dealing for/away these fantasy football running backs makes sense!
Should You Trade Jonathan Taylor in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Entering 2023, we weren’t sure about Taylor’s situation, but his talent was never a doubt. And guess what? He produced.
Taylor scored in six straight games to end the regular season and touched the ball an average of 22.3 times per game over that stretch.
The #Colts go for it on 4️⃣th & Goal and Jonathan Taylor will not be denied‼️pic.twitter.com/JPfDtDIrud
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 12, 2023
There might be skeptics out there on Taylor. What will his role look like next to Anthony Richardson? How will he hold up with over 1,000 touches on his NFL résumé?
I’m not going out of my way to deal for running backs too often in dynasty formats, but Taylor is an exception if his manager isn’t labeling him as a foundational piece for the next few seasons.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Richardson’s presence, for me, projects as a net positive for Taylor’s outlook. Sure, he might lose a few red-zone carries, but I expect the spike in overall scoring potential to more than cover up the downside.
This Colts offense as a whole is one I’m trying to get access to before 2024 kicks off, and that includes their star RB, who turned just 25 years of age in January.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Brian Robinson Jr. in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Isiah Pacheco had a strong 2023 season — and I don’t think it’s crazy to label Robinson as a poor man’s version of the Kansas City Chiefs star. Like Pacheco, Robinson is a hard runner who should see an increased level of comfort in the passing game and has a nose for the end zone.
Unlike Pacheco, however, Robinson plays for an inept offense that is searching for answers. Was the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury the start of that? I can’t say that it is with 100% certainty, but I’m willing to invest in Robinson and find out!
Percentage of carries resulting in a first down in 2023
- Brian Robinson: 26.4%
- Isiah Pacheco: 25.9%
- Jonathan Taylor: 24.9%
Those are the sixth, seventh, and eighth-best running backs at converting carries into first downs. Not bad company, right?
Robinson scored on 9.3% of his targets in 2023. While that rate may prove to be unsustainable with time, the fact that he had three times as many receptions in his second season as he saw targets during a tumultuous rookie season is what I’m comfortable betting on.
This is Robinson’s backfield moving forward, and given his running style and a creative offensive mind now at the controls, a repeat (if not improvement) on his 1,100-yard, nine-touchdown 2023 is very possible.
You always need to be price-sensitive in the trade market. Overpaying for any running back could prove fatal to the development of your dynasty roster.
But Robinson has my interest if the manager holding him doesn’t believe in him building on the steps he took in 2023.
Final Verdict: Buy
Should You Trade Jerome Ford in Dynasty Fantasy Football?
Ford took over for Nick Chubb last season and finished with an impressive stat line — 248 touches for 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns. While the production was strong, his projection wasn’t.
Yes, Ford is a valuable handcuff, but his asking price at this moment is more of a Flex option. That simply isn’t likely to be the case with all reports out of Cleveland passing forward optimism in terms of Chubb’s recovery.
Ford is a good player, that I don’t doubt. But he’s behind a better player and coming off of a season that went about as well as possible.
MORE: PFN’s Consensus Dynasty Rankings
This is the time to sell Ford. Managers haven’t seen Chubb in a while, and the idea that Ford could push for an extended role is reasonable.
Let’s not forget that Chubb was considered by most as one of the top-five runners of the football before the injury. Let’s also not forget that he’s on the right side of 30 years old and that this was a playoff team with absolute chaos on the offensive side of the ball.
The Browns have their eyes set on bigger and better things in 2024, making a reliance on Chubb more than likely.
Ford is a worthy stash in both redraft and dynasty leagues, given his proximity to value. I’m just not entering 2024 assuming that he’s a fantasy starter.
Final Verdict: Sell
