While there is no “one size fits all” draft strategy for dynasty fantasy football, having the first overall pick places managers in the driver’s seat and can set the tone for the remainder of the draft. As leagues continue to be filled with more and more managers making the leap to dynasty, we go over a potential draft strategy for your team if selecting from the first draft slot.
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Dynasty Draft Strategy: Picking From the First Overall Draft Slot
For this draft, we will be using a 12-team league with PPR scoring and a 1QB format with two running backs, two receivers, a tight end, and two Flex spots as the starting roster. Also, rookies will be included in the startup. Depending on your league settings, you might need to tweak your draft strategy to match your scoring format and roster requirements.
1.01) Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
There are three clear contenders for the No. 1 overall pick in dynasty startup drafts. Given that most fantasy managers elect to build around wide receivers due to their longer careers, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are the most common picks. If you’re not taking one of them, the only viable alternative at another position is Bijan Robinson.
The best fantasy rosters in any given season are still built around running backs. But to get there in dynasty, you have to start with wide receivers. As much as I believe Robinson is the dynasty RB1 and will be an elite fantasy producer for the next half-decade — at least — Jefferson and Chase are already confirmed elite and still have another 8-10 years ahead of them.
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In dynasty, especially with the first pick, I am looking for a cornerstone of my team for the next five-plus years. Robinson being a rookie is a bit of a unicorn as you haven’t burned any years of production. But even as a rookie, Jefferson and Chase still likely have more time at the top left than him.
Jefferson has improved every year of his career. He averaged 21.7 ppg, 2.3 ppg more than in 2021, which was 2.3 ppg more than in 2020. His receiving yardage total went up by about 200 yards each season. His receptions increased by exactly 20 each year. Everything about Jefferson says we still haven’t seen his final form. He’s the top pick.
2.12) Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Back on the clock, and we have a decision to make. With back-to-back picks, we need to nail both, as it takes forever to come back on the clock. Given that this is dynasty, my goal here is simply to draft the two best players. If that means tripling up on wide receiver, so be it.
My first pick is Chris Olave. It is fascinating that Olave’s dynasty ADP is similar to his redraft ADP. Even if Olave doesn’t take the full step forward I expect him to, any progression at all makes this a worthwhile selection.
Olave averaged 13.2 ppg as a rookie and displayed impressive deep-ball skills. With a 14.0 average depth of target and an upgrade at quarterback in Derek Carr, Olave looks like a receiver who can win at all phases.
He commanded targets last season, as evidenced by his 29.3% targets-per-route-run rate, 10th in the league. And he averaged an impressive 2.57 yards per target, also 10th.
At 23 years old, Olave has the youth element. We just need him to ascend to that WR1 tier. I think it happens in 2023.
3.01) Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
I now have a big decision to make. Do I lock up an elite quarterback, or do I take another wide receiver? Normally, I would go receiver here. But the top receiver on my board is Stefon Diggs.
While I firmly believe Diggs will be an elite WR1 for the next three years and then decline gracefully, painting some value for another 4-5, Patrick Mahomes is 28 years old and the best quarterback in the NFL. I now have him for the next decade-plus.
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In any given season, Mahomes is probably not the overall QB1. He’s not my QB1 for 2023. He hasn’t finished as the QB1 since 2018. He’s also never finished lower than QB6 and never averaged any fewer than 20.7 ppg.
Mahomes is a machine, and there’s no reason to think he will slow down at any point for at least the next seven or eight years.
4.12) J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
I don’t love this pick. But at some point, I have to take a running back. I don’t want to go into the sixth round without one.
Now 24 years old, Dobbins is another year removed from his devastating knee injury. He started to look more like Dobbins toward the end of last season. In the Ravens’ lone playoff game, he went over 100 yards from scrimmage and scored 20.5 fantasy points.
Dobbins doesn’t have the upside of the top backs due to a lack of receiving volume, but he’s the lead back on a good offense that wants to run the ball. He can be a high RB2.
5.01) Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
Last year, in this same exercise, I took Michael Pittman Jr. at the exact same spot. It’s obviously not great that his value hasn’t increased. But after the disappointing season he had, it’s also encouraging that it hasn’t decreased.
I don’t regret going all in on Pittman for 2022. The process was there. Pittman saw a 25.6% target share. He led the NFL in route participation rate. He led the league in snap share. Pittman caught 99 passes for 923 yards and four touchdowns. The issue wasn’t the volume. It was the fact his efficiency cratered with awful quarterback play.
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Playing with a rookie QB is never good for a receiver. But Pittman is still just 25 years old. Anthony Richardson should improve as a passer. By Year 2, he should prove to be a considerable upgrade on what Pittman has experienced thus far in his career.
All things considered, Pittmans’ WR21 finish last season was actually pretty impressive under the circumstances. As my WR3, I am fired up to have him.
Dynasty Draft Strategy From First Overall | Rounds 6-15
6.12) Diontae Johnson | WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
7.01) James Cook | RB, Buffalo Bills
8.12) Darren Waller| TE, New York Giants
9.01) Isiah Pacheco | RB, Kansas City Chiefs
10.12) Tank Bigsby | RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
11.01) Tyjae Spears| RB, Tennessee Titans
12.12) Brandin Cooks | WR, Dallas Cowboys
13.01) Evan Engram | TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
14.12) Gus Edwards | RB, Baltimore Ravens
15.01) Tua Tagovailoa | QB, Miami Dolphins
Projected Week 1 roster
QB – Patrick Mahomes
RB – J.K. Dobbins
RB – Isiah Pacheco
WR – Justin Jefferson
WR – Chris Olave
TE – Darren Waller
Flex – Michael Pittman Jr.
Flex – Diontae Johnson
