This week’s seemingly boring New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup features two top-10 NFL first-round wide receivers available for your fantasy football lineup. Should you trust Garrett Wilson or Drake London?
Drake London’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
London’s fantasy managers should be thrilled that the Falcons came out of their bye week with Desmond Ridder under center. Surprisingly, Ridder has been better for London’s performance than Taylor Heinicke’s chuck-it-every-play style.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
In Week 12, London dominated the passing game with a 35% target share, producing five catches for 91 yards. Over his last two healthy games, London has averaged a 28.2% target share and four catches for 63.5 yards.
Head coach Arthur Smith seems to have reflected during their bye and decided that putting the ball in his most talented players’ hands is a good strategy for winning games. The uptick in usage for Bijan Robinson and London in Week 12 correlates with this theory.
The 5-6 Falcons are somehow tied for the lead in their division, so I do not believe Smith messes with this formula. A playoff berth likely secures Smith’s job for the foreseeable future.
London faces off against the middle-of-the-road, No. 16-ranked defense against fantasy wide receivers in the Jets this week. It is important to note that, although we view the Jets as a premier real-life NFL defense, they rank dead last in the league against fantasy running backs. If I know this, so do the Falcons, so I foresee that run-heavy game plan this week for Atlanta.
We have London ranked as the No. 31 WR in our PFN Weekly Consensus Rankings, and I see that as a likely landing spot for London. London is a WR3/Flex play this week with limited upside, as I predict him spending a lot of time staring into the eyes of Sauce Gardner.
Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
When the news came out in the offseason that Aaron Rodgers was signing with the Jets, I sought out as many shares of Wilson as I could get. All of my dynasty, best ball, and home leagues focused on adding this unique talent now attached to a Hall of Fame quarterback.
That joy lasted all of about five minutes as Rodgers tore his Achilles in the first week’s Monday night game. The Jets returned to QB Zach Wilson, and the second-year WR Wilson still had a huge target share but few catchable balls. Last week, Jets head coach Robert Saleh started journeyman Tim Boyle over the former top-pick QB, and the budding star WR Wilson responded. Reports state that Boyle will be under center this week again.
Last week, Wilson had a 27.8% target share, which is actually down from his three-week average of 31.7%, but he caught seven balls for 44 yards and a touchdown. With more catchable targets coming his way, Wilson did more with the target domination he had all season.
This week, the Jets wide receivers have a tough matchup as the Falcons rank fifth among defenses against fantasy wide receivers. Boyle being under center does cap Wilson’s upside as well.
We have Wilson ranked as the No. 19 wide receiver this week in our PFN Weekly Consensus Rankings. I see Wilson as just that, a low-end No. 2 wide receiver who is safe with a high floor and low upside.
This is the polar opposite of what we expected going into the season, but that is what makes fantasy football magical: we never know what will happen to change our perceptions and evaluations. I doubt anyone was stashing Boyle for the playoff run.
Should You Start London or Wilson This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Wilson is the player to start. His projected 12.9 points include a projection of 4.9 receptions, 64.9 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line; it outperforms the consensus projection for London (11.2 points)
My ranking for these opposing wide receivers aligns with the consensus due to Wilson’s dominant target share.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
