The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can London bring his end-of-season momentum into 2023 with Desmond Ridder, and should London be a player you draft this year?
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Drake London’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It’s easy when you’re looking back at the numbers to overhype a player that you’re high on if they just missed out on hitting their value range. That’s me and London, who had a far better season in 2022 than the numbers would initially point towards.
London’s metrics are in the elite of the elite. He ranked second in target volume last year at 117 but had the fifth-highest target share at 29.4% and the second-highest target per route run rate at 32.4%.
London was also highly efficient and routinely getting open, something many tried to say was not his skill set despite the clear and obvious three-level separation skills he showed throughout his college career.
I’ve been fighting this battle for years over London. According to ESPN analytics, he was 16th in open rate and finished 11th in yards per route run at 2.4.
What held London back was the overall volume of the Falcons’ offense, which was dead last in passing rate over expectation. London ran just 21.2 routes per game, and while he was far and away the leading receiver for Atlanta, he trailed behind many other receivers across the league who had similar shares but higher potential output by their offensive design.
This is why London finished as the WR31 overall and WR47 in points per game at 10.5 PPR despite out-targeting those ahead of him. For London to hit his ceiling, the volume in chemistry with Ridder has to balance out. Looking at the end of last season, this is feasible in 2023.
In Weeks 13 through 18, London was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown during that span. Over this time, he saw 48 targets and recorded 428 yards on 31 receptions. That’s nearly half of London’s 866 yards, all coming in a five-game span, with the Falcons having a Week 14 bye in between.
London is a target-vacuum WR2 in 2023 for fantasy that also brings low-end WR1 upside if things break right. While he still has to contend with Kyle Pitts for volume, this offense is wide open at the pass-catcher positions. However, we still must often consider this a rushing team.
That’s what Arthur Smith wants to do. It’s what the offensive line is built around, and you don’t spend the No. 8 overall pick on a generational running back like Bijan Robinson to then sit in the pocket and sling the ball across the field 35 times with an unproven second your quarterback.
That said, I don’t see London dropping in either target share or volume. He should see — at minimum — a 25% target share while leading the team and hover around the 1,000-yard mark, if not closer to 1,100. Plus, Atlanta will be trailing most of the time this season which is always a good thing for garbage time production in fantasy.
My current median projections have London in the 85-90 reception range for around 1,050 yards with roughly six touchdowns. While these are not league-winning numbers alone, London should be one of the highest-volume WR2s you can roster in fantasy football in 2023.
Should You Draft Drake London This Year?
Whether or not you should draft London in 2023 in your fantasy draft will boil down to where his ADP falls. Currently my WR23, if London reaches into the top 15 at his position, I’ll likely stay away.
While I love London’s volume and upside, as noted earlier, it’s a low-volume overall team, which does cap his ceiling for explosive week-winning games.
However, if it stays closer to the 60 ADP range overall, I think London becomes an excellent value as a player who will see consistent volume. He’s one of the few uncontested WR1s but still has room for growth in both his skill set and role.
London generally sits just below a mix of other receivers facing uncertainty, which includes Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Michael Pittman Jr., and Christian Watson — every one of them just for a slightly different reason.
They all have a chance to blow up but also have an opportunity to disappoint. With Ridley, we haven’t seen him play in forever. Moore is getting Justin Fields, who must improve as a passer and is in a low-volume offense. Hopkins is likely playing a decent chunk of the season with Colt McCoy as his QB.
No one knows what’s going on with the Denver Broncos this year, and Watson, along with Pittman, has first-year starters under center.
While I wouldn’t want them as my WR1, this is a portion of the draft I will be heavily targeting for my WR2 and WR3 positions for fantasy in 2023.
London belongs in this group, and depending on your thoughts on the different situations, use that to guide who you’re choosing for your second or third WR in your draft if you’re doing a wide receiver-heavy approach to start.
London is absolutely on my radar for 2023 fantasy drafts. If this season goes the way I think it can, I doubt we’ll be looking at the same draft day value come this time next year.