The NFL never stops. Even when games aren’t taking place, fantasy football values are constantly on the move. Last season, Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London was the ultimate failure-to-launch player. We believe the talent is there. Now with improvements to his head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback, where does London’s dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 season?
Drake London’s Dynasty Outlook
I love targeting sophomore wide receivers for breakouts. It’s the most common year for young players to make a significant leap in value. As a result, one year ago, London was a player I drafted a bunch on redraft leagues and was looking to acquire during the offseason in dynasty leagues.
There are three key factors that go into evaluating a player for fantasy purposes: situation, opportunity, and talent. Situation is the team; it’s everything around the player. Opportunity is raw volume. Talent is, well, how good the player is at football.
It’s always tricky to maintain a player is very talented when he’s not producing. Typically, good players produce good results. For two years, I maintained London was a good player. However, he’s yet so much as post a WR3 season.
It would certainly be fair for outside observers to question London’s talent. We simply haven’t seen the production from London during his two years in the NFL.
While London’s efficiency metrics aren’t going to show an elite receiver, let’s remember that, so far, London has only received passes from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke. He’s also been coached by Arthur Smith. That’s hardly a recipe for success.
The fact that London posted a 172-yard receiving day with Ridder at quarterback is a feat very few receivers could accomplish. London has made enough plays and displayed impressive-enough ball skills to prove he has WR1 upside for fantasy.
It’s just impossible to ask any wide receiver to produce at his best possible level regardless of the situation. The quarterback matters; the offensive scheme matters. London got no help from either.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
It was that awful situation in a run-first offense with a quarterback and head coach who both were not good enough to lead NFL teams that held London back. The situation also contributed to a lack of overall volume.
The Falcons threw more in 2023 than in 2022, but London’s total target volume was nearly identical. For reasons I cannot begin to comprehend, London’s target share dropped considerably from being inside the top five as a rookie to outside the top 25 as a sophomore.
In 2022, London saw a 29.4% target share. That fell to 23.3% last year. He saw seven fewer targets in 2023 but played in one fewer game, resulting in a targets-per-game rate that rounds to 6.8 in both years. That’s not how teams should utilize an uber-talented top receiver.
In dynasty, fantasy managers justifiably weigh talent more heavily than they might in redraft. A mediocre player in a good situation with a ton of volume can be more productive than a talented player in a bad situation for one year.
However, over the long run, the talented player often wins out because, eventually, the situation should improve enough for the talent to shine through. I believe that is exactly what we are about to witness.
The Falcons’ 1970s-style offense stunted London’s growth. Since the start of the 2022 season, they’ve had a 51% neutral game script run rate, trailing only the Chicago Bears (who have a running quarterback). Even worse, Atlanta had a 46% negative game script run rate. When trailing by seven or more, only the Bears ran the ball more.
I can’t even begin to put into words how ridiculous it is for an NFL team to repeatedly run the ball when trailing by multiple scores. When a team is down by two scores or more, they throw to try and catch up. Thirty teams threw the ball at least 62% of the time in those situations. The Falcons threw the ball just 54% of the time when trailing by multiple scores.
Somehow, the numbers get even worse when down 2+ touchdowns. It’s almost as if they gave up whenever the Falcons went down by 14+ points. How else can we explain them running the ball a league-high 48% of the time over the past two years when trailing by 14+ points?
The Falcons averaged 30 pass plays per 60 minutes in the 2022 season. Compare that to a similarly bad team like the Washington Commanders, who threw the ball 40 times per 60 minutes. Imagine if London swapped places with Terry McLaurin. Think about how much more valuable he would’ve been, even without great coaching or quarterback play.
Fortunately, we won’t have to imagine it anymore. In fact, London’s situation really couldn’t have gotten any better than it did.
The Falcons have a new head coach in Raheem Morris and a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson. Those individuals can’t be worse than what Atlanta had over the first two years of London’s career.
Given Morris’ status as a defensive coach, he is undoubtedly going to leave the offense to Robinson and just get out of the way. That’s a good thing. Robinson comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, which uses the philosophy of funneling touches to a team’s best players. We should expect to see a whole lot more plays designed for London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson in the 2024 season.
Most important, though, is the arrival of Kirk Cousins. This is an absolute game-changer for London.
Cousins may be on the back nine of his time in the NFL, but he was playing some of the best football of his career last season before tearing his Achilles. By all accounts, his recovery is going well, and he should be 100% well before training camp.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
In all likelihood, Cousins will be in Atlanta for the remainder of his career. Based on his contract, that’s going to be four years. That’s a long time in dynasty.
Of course, there’s no guarantee Cousins remains an effective quarterback for that long. But we’ve seen quarterbacks who look like Cousins play at a high level up until their late 30s/early 40s. As London enters his prime, he’s going to have a quarterback who we’ve seen support not just WR1s but elite WR1s.
London’s Dynasty Ranking
What impact has the 2024 free agency period had on London’s dynasty ranking going forward? Here are PFN’s latest consensus WR rankings, examining where London lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
2) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
3) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
4) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
6) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
7) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
8) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
9) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Free Agent
10) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
11) Drake London, WR | Atlanta Falcons
12) Chris Olave, WR | New Orleans Saints
13) Brandon Aiyuk, WR | San Francisco 49ers
14) Malik Nabers, WR | Free Agent
15) Michael Pittman Jr., WR | Indianapolis Colts
16) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
17) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
18) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
19) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
20) DeVonta Smith, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
21) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
22) Rome Odunze, WR | Free Agent
23) Amari Cooper, WR | Cleveland Browns
24) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
25) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
Should You Trade London in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading London? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
After his rookie year, London was a borderline top-12 dynasty wide receiver. That was no longer the case after his disappointing sophomore season. But clearly, the dynasty community understands London’s talent, as Cousins’ arrival has vaulted London back into the top 12.
The best time to trade for London was after the team made its coaching changes and before they signed Cousins. Now, London will be as expensive, if not more, than he was as a rookie.
One of two things will happen in the 2024 season. Potentially London finally ascends, realizes his potential, and becomes a clear top-12 dynasty WR. If that happens, everyone who traded for him this offseason will be patting themselves on the back.
The alternative is that London again fails to launch and has a middling WR3 year, making this three straight years in which London hasn’t produced like a first-round wide receiver. If that happens, then London’s value will be even lower next year, except you won’t want to trade for him anymore.
Success in dynasty is all about calculated risk. Trading for players after they are already clearly good — or trading away players after their value has depressed — is not going to alter the trajectory of your team.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies
This is a situation where I would gamble on the Falcons’ improved coaching staff and London’s value improving after the 2024 season.
Read More 2024 Dynasty Profiles
Using the table below, browse our 2024 dynasty profiles for more than 170 players so you can dominate your dynasty drafts!
You can sort by player, team, or position. For mobile users, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.