Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London has underwhelmed in each of his first two seasons in the NFL. Seemingly a high-end talent, all the pieces are in place for him to finally break out in Year 3. Should fantasy football managers pay the premium in Best Ball drafts?
Drake London’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
“This is the year!” … he said after saying the same thing each of the past two years. I believe London to be very good at football. Bad players aren’t capable of catching 10 passes for 172 yards from Desmond Ridder. But the fact remains London has averaged 10.5 and 10.9 fantasy points per game in each of his first two NFL seasons.
DRAKE LONDON, SHEESH 😤#DirtyBirds
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 15, 2023
Despite his WR43 finish as a rookie, London was being drafted as a top-24 receiver in 2023. As is the new trend in fantasy football, we must pay for the breakout in advance. It’s fine when the breakout comes … not so much when he finishes as the WR42.
Throughout my various player outlooks, you will undoubtedly read the words, “targets are earned” multiple times. As a rookie, London earned 29.4% of them. For some reason, that fell to 23.3% last season. If someone wants to attribute that to London’s ability, or lack thereof, I can’t really argue it.
With that said, we’re all keenly aware of the unique circumstances London found himself in. Former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is widely considered to be one of the worst head coaches in NFL history.
I am choosing to blame London’s lack of progression on the Falcons’ 1970s-style offense. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Falcons have run the ball 51% of the time in a neutral game script. Only the Chicago Bears, with the second-best rushing QB in the league, had a higher rate.
The real kicker is the Falcons’ 46% negative game script run rate. When trailing by seven or more, only the Bears ran the ball more. I can’t even begin to put into words how ridiculous it is for an NFL team to repeatedly run the ball when trailing by multiple scores.
When a team is down by two scores or more, they throw to try and catch up. Thirty teams threw the ball at least 62% of the time in those situations. The Falcons threw the ball just 54% of the time when trailing by multiple scores.
Somehow, the numbers get even worse when down 2+ touchdowns. It’s almost as if they gave up whenever the Falcons went down by 14+ points. How else can we explain them running the ball a league-high 48% of the time over the past two years when trailing by 14+ points?
While London has had to suffer the first two years of his career, if you buy that it wasn’t a talent issue, we have every reason to believe the breakout is on its way this year.
The Falcons hired Raheem Morris as head coach. He’s a defense guy, so he brought in Zac Robinson as his offensive coordinator. Robinson worked under Sean McVay in Los Angeles. His offenses centered around funneling touches to his RB1, WR1, and secondary pass-catcher (WR2 in L.A. but likely Kyle Pitts in Atlanta).
Based on the coaching changes alone, we should expect improvement for London this season. The reason we should be willing to entertain the idea of a massive step forward is the quarterback upgrade. It’s impossible to understate the improvement of going from Ridder/Taylor Heinicke to Kirk Cousins.
Everywhere he’s gone, Cousins has supported fantasy WR1s. He propelled 30-year-olds Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson to 1,000-yard seasons in Washington. He powered Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen as one of the best WR duos in Minnesota. After Diggs left, he helped Justin Jefferson immediately ascend to elite WR1 status.
The only reason for someone not to be excited about London is if they don’t believe in the talent.
Should You Draft London in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Now comes the difficult part. As you likely gathered, I believe in London. But this is still a player who has finished outside the top 40 wide receivers for two straight seasons. It’s one thing to pay for progression. It’s another thing to pay for a near-WR1 season.
Had the Falcons made no changes to their coaching staff or quarterback, London would be drafted outside the top 36 wide receivers. That same player is now going inside the top 15. There’s a very strong chance he will crack the top 12 before the summer is up. That is a steep price to pay for a level of production we have not yet seen.
I love London and want to get him on multiple teams this year, but everything is relative. London undoubtedly has top-five potential with Cousins at quarterback. However, it is difficult to take him over guys we’ve already seen post-WR1 seasons in situations where they can be reasonably expected to do it again.
Taking London over Michael Pittman Jr. or Mike Evans feels like a bridge too far. Perhaps I will feel differently later in the year. But right now, London is a bit too expensive for me.