The 2020 NFL Draft is finally here, and for bettors everywhere, this offers some reprieve from the virtually nonexistent betting world caused by the current landscape across the globe. I have made many bets in anticipation of this year’s draft, which you can reference in my previous articles, and today I made three player position prop bets for the 2020 NFL Draft that I believe hold serious value.
Derrick Brown u7.5 -152 (Fanduel) – 1 unit
Derrick Brown has the second-highest floor in this year’s class behind only Chase Young. Yes, these high floors are in part due to the position that these players play and the sheer athleticism the two possess. Further, there is a risk-reward with drafting skill position players who do not possess the floor of Young or Brown.
This being said, Brown is more than just a guarantee of a reliable interior defensive lineman. Pro Football Network draft expert Tony Pauline projects Brown as the number 2 prospect on his big board, and his analysis tells you everything you need to know about the rare talent Brown possesses.
General Managers in today’s NFL have put a special priority on defenders that can be counted on to defend both the run and the pass. It allows defensive coordinators not to tip their scheme as well as allowing a defense unit to be prepared for whatever an offense throws at them.
Brown boasts astonishing speed and agility at 320lbs, allowing him to get after the passer from the interior, as well as be an incredible run stopper at this size. He is more than capable of impacting the offense from the interior on all three downs and therefore is extremely valuable in the eyes of these GMs.
These statements are not just assumptions based on Brown’s athleticism. Instead, he has showcased his elite defensive ability as a three-year starter in the trenches for the Auburn Tigers against the best competition in college football. Brown has 35 tackles for loss since 2017, 5 more than any other player during this span.
Furthermore, Brown’s ability on the pass rush was also on display in college as he boasted a 14.3% pass rush win percentage over the past two seasons. Brown has all the intangibles needed to be a force both in the run and the pass for years to come, and teams will be looking at him early on Thursday’s draft.
Brown has been widely linked to the Panthers at seven, and while I believe this is the ultimate destination, there is great potential for him to be drafted much earlier as any team picks 3-7 would love to add a player of his caliber.
Andrew Thomas over 10.5 +110 (Draftkings) – 2 units
Andrew Thomas has been nothing but exceptional as a Georgia Bulldog during his time in Athens. The first-team All-American has been the anchor on the UGA line that continually pancaked some off the highest regarded SEC defenses, and as a result, he has been on the radar as the top tackle in this year’s NFL draft.
However, many players are vying for the position of top tackle in this year’s draft, and frankly, I believe there are three tackles in Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton, and Tristan Wirfs that present better prospects.
Teams that will be looking for a tackle in the top ten picks of this year’s draft will be looking for an athletic freak to anchor the line for years to come. While Thomas surely has the technique and experience to step in immediately into a day one starter, he does not possess the athletic upside of the three prospects, as mentioned above, to be a game-changer along the offensive line that teams look for in the top 10.
This is highlighted by the renowned RAS (Relative Athletic Scores) presented by PFN’s own Kent Platte for this year’s draft. For years Kent has been taking player measurement’s in their entirety and producing a 0-10 score based on factors of all these measurements. These scores have been excellent indicators for how successful a player in the NFL and front offices use similar techniques to try to grade prospect athleticism before making their draft-day decisions.
Kent has Thomas rated as the OT12 in regards to overall athleticism in this year’s draft with a score of 8.12. Compared to other top prospects like Becton (9.85 OT2), Wirfs (9.74 OT3), and Wills (8.44 OT9) and it is easy to see the athleticism drop-off between Thomas and the other 3 top tackle prospects.
There have been many teams linked to tackles in the top 10 of the 2020 NFL draft. However, I do not see a situation where there are more than three tackles selected in the first ten picks, and I believe that two tackles being selected in this range is the most likely scenario.
All 4 top tackle prospects (Becton, Wills, Wirfs, Thomas) are phenomenal prospects who, in many other years, would be the consensus top lineman. However, I rank Thomas 4th of these prospects due to the athleticism gap, and I will take the bet that Thomas is not a top ten pick, especially at plus money.
Jacob Eason over 47.5 -138 (Fanduel) – 3 units
One of the most polarizing prospects in this year’s draft is Washington quarterback Jacob Eason. He has more arm talent than any player in this year’s draft, and he certainly flashed potential during his college career at Georgia and Washington. The NFL has seen prospects like Eason go early in the first round of drafts in the past.
The large, stationary, and rocket-armed QB build has long made general managers salivate as it fits the mold of quarterbacks that had success in the ’80s and ’90s. General managers have often overlooked potential mental red flags to snag these uber-talented arms early in past NFL drafts, frequently leading to “busts.”
Infamous NFL busts Ryan Leaf (2nd overall) and Jamarcus Russell (1st overall) certainly fit this mold. More recently, quarterbacks like Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, and Christian Hackenberg have been unable to be successful professional QBs despite being tall and having the arm talent to make any throw on the field.
Eason perfectly fits the mold of these former busts. His colossal arm talent has gotten him attention for a long time, yet he has been unable to translate that talent to consistent on-field success. All of the busts listed above had some mental block, whether it be the inability to grasp a playbook, make correct decisions quickly under pressure, or recognize defensive schemes.
While pure athleticism has allowed these gifted quarterbacks to dominate the competition through high school and college, these mental blocks are quickly exposed at the professional level, leading to them being labeled busts.
The speculation around the mental strength of Eason is founded in his time in college, as well as his draft interviews. Eason transferred from Georgia following the 2017 season that saw Jake Fromm lead the Georgia Bulldogs to an SEC title and nearly a National Championship. Despite having a clear athletic advantage over Fromm, Eason was unable to regain his starting quarterback job at Georgia due to accuracy and mentality question marks.
It doesn’t appear that the question marks surrounding Eason’s mental capabilities have been shored up in his time at Washington or in his prep for the NFL, as Todd McShay reported that teams were not impressed with Eason in interviews. NFL teams have every reason to question whether Eason has what it takes mentally to make it this league, a once overlooked performance factor that now has an increased emphasis.
The NFL is now “woke,” as the kids say, to prospects like Eason. After decades of drafting QBs early in the draft, GMs have made the mental makeup of a quarterback the most critical factor when conducting evaluations. And this area, of course, is where Eason has struggled on many occasions.
For this reason, I can’t imagine a team using a pick in the first round and a half on Eason when we have seen prospects like Eason fail over and over again in the NFL. Poor Jacob, had he been born 15 years earlier, he may have been the first overall pick. However, in this current NFL landscape, I expect him to be a 3rd-4th round pick.
Follow @DHaynesPFN for my full slate of draft props, and follow @PFNBets for up to the minute analysis and picks from our entire team.