INDIANAPOLIS — Tua Tagovailoa is easily one of the NFL’s 13 best quarterbacks. The Miami Dolphins should not be afraid to pay him like it.
That means the Dolphins should pick up his fifth-year option — and not think twice about it.
Miami Dolphins Should Pick Up Tua Tagovailoa’s Fifth-Year Option
They presumably are thinking twice about it, however.
The Dolphins have yet to activate said option, which is fully guaranteed. And with two months until the deadline, they seem to be in no great rush to do so.
“We’d probably be best served to utilize the time,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said at the NFL Scouting Combine here Tuesday. “That’s kind of the way we’re approaching it. That doesn’t mean that we’re spending long periods of time not discussing it. This is something that Chris [Grier] and I have been working through, and we will continue to work through.”
Grier, the Dolphins general manager, said this about Tagovailoa and the fifth-year option in January:
“He’s our starting quarterback. I don’t know how we could say it any more clearly. … [We’ve] worked with and talking with the doctors and consultants and everyone we dealt with, we fully expect him back next year 100% ready to go, and then we’ll get through all those decisions like I said, just like we talk about every player on the roster.
“Obviously, I understand because it’s Tua, and that’s why the question is being asked. We’ll go through our process, but he is our starting quarterback and will be next season.”
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fifth-Year Option Is Actually Great Value
Tagovailoa deserves the support. He had a breakthrough season in 2022, leading the NFL in passer rating (105.5) in his first season with McDaniel as his coach.
And with McDaniel calling plays and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle under contract for the foreseeable future, there’s little reason to think Tua will have a big regression.
His stats were so impressive in 2022 — he also led the NFL in touchdown rate (6.3%), yards per attempt (8.9), adjusted yards per attempt (9.2), net yards per attempt (8.0), adjusted net yards per attempt (8.4) and yards per completion (13.7) — that Spotrac lists his calculated market value at $39.7 million.
That’s nearly double what he would earn under the fifth-year option ($23.2 million, which would put him outside the top 10 in QB salary) in 2024. What’s more, exercising that clause would allow the Dolphins to control his rights for six years (including the franchise tag) at an estimated total compensation of roughly $100 million.
That’s incredible value for even a third-tier quarterback, and Tagovailoa proved in 2022 he’s far better than that.
It makes so much sense that it’s a wonder the Dolphins haven’t done it yet.
Granted, there are arguments against not activating that option. They’re just not particularly compelling.
One argument is that Tagovailoa’s 2022 season was a fluke, and he will regress to the mean in 2023 — and beyond. But with that scheme, the talent surrounding him, and McDaniel’s ever-sunny disposition boosting his confidence, that seems highly unlikely.
Certainly, Tua could take a smaller step back in 2023, but even if he does and the Dolphins want to move on, there will absolutely be a team willing to part with a late-round draft pick to take a one-year gamble on Tua, considering how little (comparably) he will cost them in salary.
The other argument? He’s simply too brittle to give any guaranteed money to. Tagovailoa has missed 10 games due to injury in his first three NFL seasons and suffered at least two concussions in 2022.
But if the Dolphins had that concern, they would not have been as strident in their defense of his long-term health outlook after the season ended. And they probably wouldn’t have fully committed to him at all in 2023.
“I think, like any other player, you factor in every variable,” McDaniel said Tuesday. “I think one thing that, when you’re talking about those types of decisions, it’s important to recognize that we have a congruence of interests by the Dolphins and the player, Tua, that both parties really want him to play at a very high level for a very long time for the Miami Dolphins. What’s the best way to really engineer that or to help manifest that?
“Those are the things that we’re kind of weighing, in terms of the various options, with the same desired end as Tua would like. You factor in everything the best you can. That’s part of this game that we’re all involved in. There’s some unknowns. You weigh those, you press forward, and you make the best decision for the organization.”