The Miami Dolphins were one of the most entertaining offenses in the NFL last year, and they are primed to be that once again in 2024. However, there are several questions to be answered, including whether Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can co-exist as top-15 fantasy assets and what impact the arrival of Odell Beckham Jr. may have on either Hill or Waddle, if any.
Let’s examine Hill, Waddle, and Beckham’s fantasy football outlooks for the 2024 season and see if there should be any hesitation about drafting them this year.
Tyreek Hill Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 388.4 (255.5 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 132.9
- Receiving Yards: 1812.3
- Receiving TDs: 11.1
If not for a late-season ankle sprain, Hill probably would have become the first wide receiver to achieve 2,000 yards in a single season. For the past seven years, he’s been not only one of the safest picks in fantasy but one of the highest-upside picks.
Hill has now finished inside the top 12 for fantasy receivers every year since 2017. He’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game a total of four times in his career, including each of the last two seasons. As alluded to above, the best season of his career did not come with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — it was last season with Tua Tagovailoa.
Hill averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR2 behind Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb. He was well on his way to an overall WR1 finish before his ankle injury limited his late-season production.
Hill led the NFL with a 33.7% target share last season. He also led the league with his 36.9% targets per route run rate. Unsurprisingly, the dynamo also led all receivers with 3.88 yards per route run.
There’s no denying the fact that we are barreling toward the end of Hill’s career. He certainly has more WR1 seasons behind him than ahead of him.
It never feels right to take a 30-year-old WR with such premium draft capital instead of elite young players firmly in their prime. With that said, we’ve seen nothing to indicate Hill is slowing down.
In the past, my outlook on older players was to always be out a year early rather than a year late. I no longer hold that philosophy.
Particularly when it comes to elite talents, we’ve seen so many of them continue to perform at a high level in their first couple of years of their 30s. Typically, we see signs of decline before the collapse happens.
We’ve seen nothing of the sort, so there’s no reason to think he will be anything other than the same elite player he’s been for the better part of the past decade.
I’ve debated all year between Hill and Lamb as my top-ranked wide receiver for the 2024 season. Ultimately, there’s no wrong answer. Hill should be gone no later than the fifth pick in fantasy drafts.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 274.4 (176.6 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 97.8
- Receiving Yards: 1313.5
- Receiving TDs: 6.9
If Hill didn’t have a fantasy floor of 119 receptions and 1,700 yards in Miami’s offensive scheme, then I would be much more optimistic about Waddle’s fantasy ceiling in 2024.
Now, does this mean Waddle doesn’t have an intriguing fantasy floor in an offense that led the league in passing last season? No, of course not. Waddle had the “worst” fantasy finish of his young career at WR34 and still finished with 72 receptions for 1,014 yards and four TDs in 2023.
For some additional context, he missed three games last year and produced fairly close to the same fantasy points-per-game production (14.2) we saw from him in full-PPR formats from 2022 (15.2).
Continuing with the context argument, Waddle saw his yards per route run (YPRR) rise from 2.46 to 2.52 last season, which certainly suggests there was no significant drop-off in his play on the field.
If we compare his ADP to just one season ago, then he’s going to feel like a discount at No. 40 overall (WR19) off the board in the back half of the fourth round. In 2023, he had an ADP of No. 22 overall (WR10), which firmly put him in the back half of Round 2.
Has that much really changed to Waddle’s situation from last year heading into this season? My answer is no.
Sure, Beckham, Jonnu Smith, and Malik Washington’s additions may give QB Tua Tagovailoa some mildly better ancillary options in this passing attack. But I’m not going to project him to lose any significant amount of work to these players in 2024.
Waddle is currently going in the same range as Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and DeVonta Smith, which makes me feel very comfortable adding him as a high-end WR2 in an elite passing attack with the upside of a WR1 if anything were to happen to Hill.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Odell Beckham Jr. Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 114.1 (76.5 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 37.5
- Receiving Yards: 523.8
- Receiving TDs: 3.8
The one-time highlight factory has seen his PPR PPG decline in each of the past four seasons in which he has played (he missed all of 2022 with the ACL), and while joining a powerhouse offense is a positive, it’s not enough to demand your attention in anything but the deepest of formats. He will now start the season on the PUP list.
The Hill/Waddle combination combined for 187.5 receiving yards per game last season and is the focal point of his concentrated passing attack. After drafting Jaylen Wright, this explosive offense has access to a three-headed backfield that can flip the field just as fast as the passing game can.
Oh, and don’t forget that Smith was added to the mix at tight end. He isn’t likely to matter for fantasy, but he will soak up some targets, further limiting the projectable impact of a WR3 in this offense. Beckham used to see a target on 25% (or more) of his routes, but he’s checked in under 22% in each of his past two seasons – make him a DFS punt play if you like a specific spot, but don’t worry about him in any annual format.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst