Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season features a number of interesting, unique matchups that offer us a preview of playoff teams. One game that has two upstart hopefuls is the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-1, while the Dolphins are 3-2 and trying to survive without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
We’re covering all sports betting aspects of this matchup, with lines courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook. Want to win a free $200 on the NFL this season? As a new user on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet $5 and win $200 by betting on the NFL or college football.
Top Dolphins vs. Vikings Player Props To Target
I’ve scoured through the list of same-game parlays, player prop bets, and totals available on the best playmakers for both the Dolphins and Vikings. We’re using every tool at our disposal to make sharp prop bets, including fantasy averages, player trends, and the best vig. Let’s dive into the best prop bets you can target.
Dalvin Cook Anytime TD (-135)
While the Dolphins have the sixth-best run defense EPA, they’ve been unable to win near the goal line. Miami has allowed seven rushing scores, ranking 26th in the league. This is terrific news for fantasy managers and bettors who have action on Dalvin Cook.
Cook’s usage returned to normal over the last two weeks despite the fact he’s dealt with a shoulder injury this season. Minnesota was seemingly protecting his range of motion, or lack thereof, in Week 4 when they pulled Cook near the goal line and on passing downs. He’s still only played 63 percent of snaps or less over the last three games, but Cook scored twice last week.
One of the toughest players in the league and with an explosive presence, Cook has the best odds to score of any playmaker on either team for good reason. Miami might be able to keep his yards in check, but he has a favorable opportunity to notch a score.
Irv Smith Jr. Anytime TD Scorer (+280)
The Dolphins rush defense is vulnerable in the red zone, but their passing defense has been struggling all year. They’ve allowed 304 or more passing yards in three of their last four games. Injuries have limited their cornerback room’s impact, but the pass rush has also been a massive letdown considering their disruption level last year.
Miami has especially struggled against tight ends. While Irv Smith Jr. hasn’t lit the world on fire in 2022, he is third on the team in targets with 25. He’s caught 14 passes for 133 yards and one touchdown.
This is a great week for Smith to enjoy a breakout. Miami has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the tight end position, giving up an average of six receptions for 60.8 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
Kirk Cousins Under 259.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This game has a 3.5-point spread in favor of the Vikings, but I’m surprised it’s so low. Miami has the talent to be very good, but their defense is continuing to trend downward and the offense is rudderless without Tagovailoa steering the ship. I don’t think Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense will have to sling the ball around to walk out of this game with a comfortable win.
Cousins is averaging only 265.4 yards per game this season, but his attempts have been high for that average. Minnesota is throwing the ball shorter than the last two years, but Cousins has maintained his 66 percent completion rate and almost identical yards per game. His touchdown rate is low at 3.5 percent, and his interception rate is tied for the highest rate since 2014.
The numbers are concerning, but it’s still early to judge this new offense. I’m expecting Cousins to find a good rhythm against the 30th-ranked passing defense in EPA and walk away with an efficient showing.
Jaylen Waddle Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
No Dolphins playmaker has suffered more from the transition at quarterback from Tagovailoa to Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson than Jaylen Waddle. Waddle went from producing as a WR1 to barely noticeable on the field. He’s caught five passes for 62 yards over the last two weeks.
MORE: Week 6 NFL Picks and Predictions
Waddle has a talent advantage over Minnesota’s cornerback rotation of Cameron Dantzler, Patrick Peterson, and Chandon Sullivan. But it’s a unit that is moderately stronger together than individually. It’s an average defense across the board, but look for their pass rush to be impactful since Miami once again has arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
For as talented as Xavien Howard is at forcing interceptions, he won’t be able to lock down Justin Jefferson by himself. Howard is vulnerable against sharp route-runners to begin with, and if Miami’s pass rush is again ineffective, Jefferson will feast. He’s averaging just under 110 receiving yards per game.
Miami has continued to be one of the heavier-man coverage teams in the league despite their safety talent and issues with cornerback depth. It’s hard to have success playing man when the pass rush is ineffective. That’s a formula for Jefferson to have his third-straight game with 10 or more catches and 100-plus yards.