Sunday’s Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers game features two teams in dramatically different situations. The Bucs are 3-1 and coming off a Sunday Night Football win over the Patriots in Tom Brady’s much-anticipated return to Foxborough. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 1-3 and facing mounting pressure from the media and fans as they attempt to keep their season from unraveling. Let’s take a look at the current NFL odds, the TV channel, how to live stream this Week 5 matchup, and a Dolphins vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction and odds | Week 5
Odds from DraftKings sportsbook.
- Spread: Buccaneers -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -550, Dolphins +400
- Over/Under: 47.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
The Dolphins enter Sunday’s game with a worse record than the Bucs but have had more success against the spread. The Dolphins have split their first four games ATS while the Buccaneers are just 1-3. Miami has also covered in each of their last five games as road underdogs. Additionally, they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a loss.
The game total appears a bit high for a Dolphins game. Miami’s games have topped 45 points only 1 time in 2021. That said, the over has cashed in three of Tampa Bay’s four contests this year and in five of their last six as favorites. Furthermore, the over has cashed in 10 of the Bucs’ last 12 games as home favorites.
Dolphins vs. Buccaneers prediction
The Dolphins right now are an unmitigated disaster. They have two offensive coordinators but might as well have none. Saying that the Miami offense is listless is insulting to listless people everywhere. The Dolphins average just 4 yards per play, the worst in the NFL. They are averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, the worst in the NFL. And the offense is scoring a paltry 13.8 points per game (as 7 of their points came from a defensive score).
Not to pile on, but the offensive line that includes four top-78 draft picks (three in the top 42) has been horrific, the running game has been non-existent, and at least one key starting player is mulling his future in football.
But perhaps the most disappointing aspect to the Dolphins’ start has been the defense. The unit was one of the best a year ago but is allowing over 27 points per game in 2021. That number, of course, is a bit bloated by the sheer number of snaps they have to play due to the offense’s ineptitude.
Miami’s defense is allowing 5.5 yards per play, which is 13th in the NFL and actually better than the 5.9 they allowed in 2020. However, the defense has regressed mightily on third down, allowing a 54.24% conversion rate, second-worst in the NFL. That is a far cry from their league-leading 31.18% from a year ago.
Buccaneers could dominate the Dolphins
Luckily, nothing will cure what ails the Dolphins like a visit to Tampa Bay to take on the defending Super Bowl Champions. Wait, what?
The scary thing about the Buccaneers is that it feels like they haven’t quite hit their stride yet offensively. And yet, despite a banged-up secondary, the Bucs are 3-1 after escaping New England with a win in Brady’s return to Foxborough. While the stats suggest nothing has dropped off for Tampa in the scoring department (averaging 30.5 in 2021 vs. 30.8 in 2020), a Week 2 48-point effort against the Falcons inflates the numbers a bit.
On Sunday, the Bucs showed a recommitment to the run after handing the ball to their running backs just 9 times the week before against the Rams. Leonard Fournette saw 20 carries vs. the Patriots, the most he has seen since joining the Bucs a year ago. Expect to see more of that in Week 5, as Miami’s defense is allowing over 130 yards per game on the ground.
As noted, Tampa Bay’s secondary is pretty beat up already in this young season and has struggled accordingly. They are in the bottom half of the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.0) and dead last in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game (327.5). Of course, Dolphins QB Jacoby Brissett is not the type of quarterback who will take advantage of that — both because he physically can’t and because his coaching staff refuses to put their players in the best position to succeed.
Either way, it’s hard to see how the Dolphins can score enough to knock off the defending champions on the road.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Dolphins 17
How to watch and listen to Dolphins vs. Buccaneers this week
- Start: 1 PM ET
- Channel: CBS
- Listen:
- Local Miami: 560 WQAM, KISS 99.9
- Local Tampa Bay: 98Rock, ESPN Southwest Florida 99.3, The Game 96.9 FM
- TuneIn Radio
- Sirius XM Radio
- Live Streaming Options:
- Hulu + Live TV
- fuboTV
- YouTube TV
- Paramount+
Check with your streaming service to confirm the availability of specific channels.