The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills matchup is probably the most compelling of this young season in the NFL. Check out the odds and predictions for this important AFC East showdown.
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Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Bills -3
- Moneyline: Dolphins (+124); Bills (-148)
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Game time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
If the rules allowed for Week 4 games to be flexed, you can bet your bottom dollar the NFL would have rescheduled this one for prime time. Sadly, this matchup fell one week short of qualifying under the league’s guidelines.
None of this changes the fact that the Dolphins are the “it” team of the moment, while the Bills have righted their ship in a major way after a surprising Week 1 flop.
On the one side, you have Miami, who just can’t find an opposing defense that can slow them down. While 31 other teams are still trying to get to 100 total points scored on the season, the Dolphins have already scored 130.
Their 70-point performance last week against the Denver Broncos was not only a single-game franchise record, but it’s more points than 18 other teams have scored all season, including the entire NFC South division.
MORE: NFL Week 4 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread for Every Game
On the other side, there’s Buffalo, who looked vulnerable while losing to the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets in Week 1 but have since won two in a row, outscoring their opponents by a whopping 75-13 margin.
The QB matchup appears to be worth the price of admission alone. Tua Tagovailoa leads all quarterbacks — by a healthy margin — in passer rating so far (121.9). He has thrown for over 450 yards in one game (466 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers) and had four touchdown passes without an interception last week vs. the Broncos.
However, Josh Allen loves playing the Dolphins, for whatever reason. Including the playoffs, Allen is 9-2 all-time vs. Miami. In five regular-season home games against the Dolphins — all Bills’ wins — Allen has had a passer rating of 100 or better every time.
It may seem like a surprise to see the Dolphins, with their high-octane offense, listed as the underdog in this matchup. But when you have lost nine of your last 10 meetings with a team (including the playoffs), and when your last win in Buffalo came in 2016, you get saddled with the underdog label. At least for this week.
As for which way to pick this game, I’m looking at the over/under here. There is no other matchup this week that even approaches the total listed for this Dolphins-Bills battle. Despite the high number, I’m a believer in both offenses.
Last January’s Wild Card game was a classic, featuring 30+ points for both teams. It also ended with another Buffalo win.
Expect another high-scoring game again on Sunday.
Best Bet: Over 53.5 points (-110 at DraftKings SportsBook)