With four weeks left in the regular season, there are just nine AFC teams with a realistic chance of making the playoffs.
The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans, as Week 15 opponents, are two of them.
Read below to see the playoff scenarios for the Dolphins entering Week 15. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
Dolphins’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 15
The Dolphins at 6-7 are two games out of the AFC’s No. 5, 6, and 7 seeds — currently held by the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos, respectively — with four games left to play.
But Miami’s playing its best football of the year, and the Texans are the last team the Dolphins will face this year with a winning record. So their odds of getting in are better than you might think.
The Dolphins entered Sunday’s slate of games with a 30.7% chance to make the playoffs — but only as a Wild Card entrant. The Bills captured the AFC East title weeks ago.
The Dolphins have a 3.4% chance of earning the No. 5 seed, an 8.6% chance of earning the No. 6 seed, and a 17.6% chance of earning the No. 7 seed.
Dolphins’ Rooting Guide for Week 15
Of course, the most important team Dolphins fans should root for is the Dolphins. As the No. 9 seed entering Week 15 (behind the 6-7 Indianapolis Colts, who own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami), they have no realistic path to the postseason with another loss, especially in-conference.
The Dolphins are slight underdogs on Sunday in Houston. The Texans win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Beyond that, there are three games that impact the Dolphins’ chances.
Two are cut and dry. They want:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Chargers (which has a 52.1% chance of happening)
- And the 2-11 New York Giants to beat the 8-5 Ravens (good luck with that)
The other game is the Colts vs. the Broncos — who both are ahead of Miami in the standings. The Dolphins need at least one loss from Indianapolis and at least two losses from one of the three Wild Card teams to move into the No. 7 spot.
According to PFN’s metrics, it’s actually slightly more advantageous for the Dolphins if the Colts win, but they still would need two more external results to go their way, assuming the Chargers and Ravens both win.
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans Preview
The Dolphins are in that weird place where they’re very likely to miss the playoffs but not so far out of it that they can shut their hurt guys down.
The Texans, meanwhile, are very likely going to the playoffs as division champions.
What’s the No. 1 reason why? Their defense. The Texans have a fearsome 1-2 pass-rush punch of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.; they can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Colts loss.
We’re intrigued about the matchup between the NFL’s No. 6 defense (per PFN metrics) and Tua Tagovailoa, who has played as well as any quarterback since his return from injured reserve in Week 8. Over the last seven weeks, he’s second in passer rating (114.1) and completion percentage (76%) with 15 touchdowns and one interception.
Last Time Out
The Dolphins escaped near-certain defeat — and effective playoff elimination — to beat the New York Jets 32-26 in overtime. Tagovailoa completed 33 of 47 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns, including the 10-yard game-winner to Jonnu Smith on the first possession of OT.
The Texans were on their bye in Week 14. The week before, they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20 in a game that was closer than it should have been. Houston led by 17 points midway through the fourth quarter before allowing a couple of garbage-time scores by Jacksonville.
Mike McDaniel vs. DeMeco Ryans
Sunday marks the ninth time Mike McDaniel faces off against a former coaching colleague in his three years with the Dolphins, this time in DeMeco Ryans.
The previous eight should give the Texans and their fans reason for optimism.
The Dolphins have played 47 regular season games in McDaniel’s three seasons with the Dolphins. Their averages in those games were 24.6 points per game, six yards per play, a 39.1% conversion rate on third downs, a 61.7% conversion rate in the red zone, and a .553 winning percentage.
In their eight games against McDaniel’s peers: 22, 5.5, 38.5%, 47.8%, and 4-4, respectively.
Series History
While the Texans and Dolphins are playing for just the 12th time ever, this is their third meeting in four years.
Houston holds the all-time series edge 8-3, but all three of those losses to Miami have come in the teams’ last four meetings, including a 30-15 Dolphins victory at Hard Rock Stadium in 2022.
Betting Lines
The Texans as of Friday morning were three-point favorites (-148) over the Dolphins.
The Dolphins’ moneyline was +124. The over/under was 46.5.
The betting public sees this as a close game. Seventy percent of the bets and money were on the Texans -148, but 70% of the bets and money were on the Dolphins +3.