The Miami Dolphins will travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. Here is the latest betting information and analysis, including lines, odds, trends, prediction, and more.
Betting Lines and Odds
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +120; Rams -142
- Total: 50.5
Dolphins and Rams Betting Trends
- Under tickets have cashed in five of Miami’s past six road games played in prime time.
- Six straight games have gone under the total when Tua Tagovailoa starts in a game with a spread of less than three points.
- The Dolphins are 12-4 against the spread in November since 2020.
- Unders are 10-3 (76.9%) in the Rams’ last 13 prime-time games.
- Unders are 8-3 in Los Angeles’ last 11 games with a total north of 45 points.
- Teams with a .500 or better record are 26-15 ATS (63.4%) this season when playing at home against a losing team (14-7 ATS since the beginning of Week 7 in such spots).
- Matthew Stafford has covered six of his past nine games that have finished over the total.
Dolphins vs. Rams Prediction
Pick Against the Spread/Total
Kyle Soppe: I understand if your instinct is to bet the over in this spot. Neither defense has impressed this season, and neither offense has been as healthy as it has been. But the sportsbooks are well aware of those facts and seem to be pushing this number up to see how they can set it while still attracting action on both sides.
I’ll bite.
Tagovailoa and Stafford both carry high-end potential, but we are evaluating what will most likely occur. Over Tagovailoa’s past seven starts, the Dolphins are averaging 19.9 points per game with zero 30-point performances. Over Stafford’s past 19 starts, the Rams are averaging 23.8 ppg with five 30-point outings.
Neither of these offenses ranks better than 25th in red-zone conversion rate this season, and both are below average in terms of rushing success rate on the defensive side. If these two teams are settling for field goals in a game that constantly has a running clock, they’d need to be close to perfect to go over this total.
Could that happen? Sure. There are game-breakers on both ends. Am I projecting it? Nope. Unders are 13-3-1 in Stafford’s last seven starts, where the total closes north of 47 points, a trend I like to continue.
Pick: Under 50
Prop Bets
Jason Katz: Simply put, this line is too high. FanDuel is notoriously sharp when it comes to player props. Every other main book opened this at 262.5, while FD was sitting there at 250.5. I expect the books to come down to the FD line, not vice versa.
Nevertheless, this line appears to be an overreaction to Stafford’s last two games when he threw for 298 and 279 yards, respectively. Those two performances came in high-scoring games against a bottom-five pass defense and a bottom-half pass defense. This week, Stafford gets a Dolphins defense allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game.
From Weeks 1-6, Stafford threw for over 260 yards just once (Week 1). Now, to be fair, there is something different about Weeks 1, 8, and 9 from the rest of the season. Those were the only weeks he had Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field.
Even so, Stafford can have a big game in a high-scoring affair without tearing it up through the air. The Dolphins are not a bad run defense, but they are much more beatable on the ground than through the air.
Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams, keeping Stafford in the 220-240 passing-yard range this week. I would play this down to 256.5.
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 262.5 Passing Yards