It has been a wild season for the Miami Dolphins, who attempted to weather quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion-related absence before mounting a late-season charge for the playoffs.
That charge has not been as fruitful as they would have hoped, but the Dolphins still remain in the NFL playoff picture following their win on Sunday over the San Francisco 49ers.
The Dolphins’ path to an AFC Wild Card berth is narrow. But it does still exist after Week 16. Let’s examine the Dolphins’ playoff chances following Sunday’s action.
What Is the Miami Dolphins’ Current Playoff Picture?
The Dolphins (7-8) current NFL playoff picture is bleak, to be fair. With two games left to play, they are two games back of the Chargers (9-6) and Broncos (9-6). That leaves the Dolphins needing a lot of help if they are to make the playoffs this season.
Adding to the complication is that the Dolphins are tied in terms of record with the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) and Cincinnati Bengals (7-8). Currently, the Dolphins are above the Bengals based on a superior conference record (5-5 vs. 4-6) but trail the Colts on conference record and below them based on a head-to-head loss in Week 7.
That means the Dolphins need many things to fall their way. Most importantly, they have to win all of their remaining games.
How Can the Dolphins Make the Playoffs?
Miami’s path to the playoffs is pretty clear. They need the following to happen:
1) Dolphins win their final two games; AND
2) Broncos OR Chargers lose both of their final two games; AND
3) Colts lose at least one of their final two games.
Let’s break this down.
If the Dolphins lose either of their remaining games, they are eliminated. Similarly, if the Broncos or Chargers don’t lose each of their remaining two games, the Dolphins are eliminated.
The Broncos have a potentially tougher finish than the Chargers, with the Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs awaiting them in the final two weeks of the season. Assuming the Chiefs have something left to play for in Week 18, it is not inconceivable the Broncos could lose both of those games and open the door for the chasing pack.
If the Broncos finish 9-8, the Dolphins need to match 9-8 records with them, and they would jump the Broncos in the AFC standings. The two teams have not met, so it would come down to conference record, and the Dolphins would have a superior record at 7-5 compared to 5-7 for the Broncos.
In fact, other than a tiebreaker with the Colts, the Dolphins would be in a good position in any tiebreaker scenario at 9-8. Their 7-5 conference record would be better than the Chargers, Bengals, or Broncos at the same record. Given they have not faced any of them this season, that would mean the Dolphins win any multi- or two-team tiebreakers involving some combination of those three teams.
The Dolphins’ head-to-head loss with the Colts could ultimately prove key. If they both end up at 9-8, they will both have 7-5 records. Therefore, once any initial multi-team tie is resolved by conference record to leave the Colts and Dolphins, the Colts would then jump above the Dolphins due to that head-to-head meeting.
The Colts’ win on Sunday over the Titans means Miami’s path is getting narrower. If the Colts don’t lose at least one more game, the Dolphins don’t have a realistic path to the playoffs.
Make sure to check out Pro Football Network’s updated playoff percentages to find out exactly how likely a Dolphins postseason trip is. And then head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
