The Green Bay Packers delivered a body blow to the Miami Dolphins’ playoff chances in Week 13, but their win against the New York Jets brought them back. As of now, there are plausible, if unlikely, playoff scenarios for the Dolphins.
Can the Dolphins Still Make the Playoffs?
Yes. The Dolphins at 6-7 have a small but plausible chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins have a 27.9% chance of reaching the postseason, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor.
If they do so, the odds are quite good that it will be as the No. 7 seed (16% overall). Miami has a 3% chance of landing the No. 5 seed and a 7.8% chance of earning the No. 6 seed.
To get in, the Dolphins will almost certainly need to win out, have the Baltimore Ravens or Denver Broncos lose two of their last four games, and have the Indianapolis Colts lose at least once.
Can the Dolphins Still Win the AFC East?
No. The Buffalo Bills clinched their fifth-straight AFC East championship on Thanksgiving weekend due to the combination of beating the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers beating the Dolphins.
The Dolphins last won the division in 2008, the only time they have done so since 2001.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 17
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-6)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7. Denver Broncos (9-6)
In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
11. New York Jets (4-11)
12. Cleveland Browns (3-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-12)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
16. New England Patriots (3-12)
Dolphins’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: at Houston Texans
- Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 17: at Cleveland Browns
- Week 18: at New York Jets
Dolphins Preview and Insights
Rodgers vs. Tua, Finally
Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa have been in the same division for 19 months but just now are getting around to facing each other as AFC East foes.
It’s a function of how the schedule fell. Rodgers missed all but a handful of snaps of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles, and the NFL waited until Week 14 to get the Dolphins and Jets together for the first time in 2024.
But this isn’t the first time Rodgers and Tagovailoa have faced off. Rodgers as a member of the Packers visited Hard Rock Stadium in a frigid (for South Florida) Christmas Day game in 2022. Rodgers outplayed Tagovailoa that day — but with a huge caveat. Tagovailoa suffered an undiagnosed concussion in the first half and threw three interceptions in the second.
Assuming he stays healthy this time around, Tagovailoa could go off against a Jets defense that looks like it will be without Sauce Gardner (doubtful, hamstring). If so, expect to see lots of Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed 68% of the passes thrown in his coverage area to be completed.
As for a Rodgers vs. Tua comparison? It’s not kind to the future Hall of Famer at this point in his career. Tua is second In QB+ this season (95). Rodgers is 26th (69.6).
Hall Pass?
Running back Breece Hall’s availability for Sunday’s game was a big-time mystery this week after he missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday before ultimately being ruled doubtful on Friday.
Hall has been dealing with a knee injury the last two weeks, and his participation rate in the Jets’ Week 13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks (62%) was noticeably below his season average (75.7%). So, even if he does play Sunday against the Dolphins, it’s fair to expect a bigger bite at the apple for backup Braelon Allen.
That’s not necessarily a terrible thing for the Jets.
Yes, Hall this year has averaged more than a half-yard more per carry than Allen (4.2-3.6), but that might be as much a function of their surroundings as any personal shortcoming. The rookie fourth-round pick has been better than his top-line numbers.
Both Hall and Allen have averaged 2.2 yards after contact this season, suggesting that blocking is the reason for the disparity. What’s more, Allen’s success rate is actually higher (49.3%-46.3%).
Expect Allen to test a Dolphins defense that missed nearly two dozen tackles in Week 13 but still ranks ninth in rush EPA (-.119).
Of course, it should be said that Hall has a special upside. But if contract negotiations over the next 15 months with Hall are choppy, whoever is running the Jets in 2025 and beyond can take solace knowing that they have a tenable Plan B at running back.
Chopping the Wall?
The entire Dolphins pass rush vanished in their Week 13 loss to the Packers, but no one was more disappointing than rookie Chop Robinson — particularly after what he did the week before.
Robinson had zero tackles, zero sacks, and zero quarterback hits in 15 pass rush snaps. The Packers had a plan to neutralize the Dolphins’ best health EDGE defender and executed it to perfection. They ran the ball on 12 of the 30 plays he was on the field and did an excellent job blocking him when they passed. His one pressure was the fewest since Week 4, and his pressure rate (6.7%) was the lowest of his young career.
That dip came a week after he looked like an All-Pro in the Dolphins’ blowout win over the Patriots. He got pressure on 38.5% of his pass rush reps that week.
Robinson may bounce back against a Jets offensive line that has the league’s eight-worst pass block win rate (56%). But if not, it’s important to remember that Sunday will be the 13th game of his season — which is the most he played in college.