For the nightcap on the NFL Thanksgiving schedule, football fans will be treated to two teams with playoff dreams while eating pumpkin and apple pie. The resurgent Miami Dolphins (5-6) are riding a 3-game winning streak behind the NFL’s Week 12 Player of the Week Tua Tagovailoa. They’ve beaten three teams with a combined record of 10-24 and now attempt to debunk narratives that they can’t beat good teams or win in the cold.
Meanwhile, the Packers (8-3) attempt to sure up their playoff position and keep alive their hopes of an NFC North title. They are fresh off a thumping of the San Francisco 49ers and have won six of their last seven games.
Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Packers -3.5 - Moneyline
Packers (-180); Giants (+150) - Over/Under
47.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
Lambeau Field
Dolphins vs. Packers Preview and Prediction
If you’ve watched the Miami Dolphins this season, then you are probably with me on having absolutely no idea what might happen in the night game. On one hand, the Dolphins offense with Tua back is playing as good as it has all season. But it was also against three below .500 teams and Mike McDaniel‘s squad has yet to prove they can beat a playoff-type team. I honestly can see them winning and also leaving with a blowout loss we’ve seen in the past. So the side is not a play for me on -3.5 or +3.5.
The total is hard to play as well. Both offenses have been on fire recently with the Dolphins averaging 29 PPG since Tua returned and the Packers just put up 38 against the Niners. Both defenses are solid as well and then you have the weather, which will hover around 27 degrees at game time. No snow is expected, but cold is cold.
Where I am headed for this game is the prop market. Remember that Miami offense is built around the speed and talents of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and a host of fast running backs? That offseason signing of Odell Beckham Jr.? Well, since Tua has been back, it’s been the Jonnu Smith show. With teams taking away the Dolphins’ deep threat and limiting Hill and Waddle (except for last week’s Waddle breakout game), Miami has turned to the short, seam passing game and that’s where TE Smith lives.
Since Tua’s return, Smith has 35 targets in 5 games and 27 receptions for 299 yards (60/game). In the last two games alone, Smith has 19 targets, 15 catches, 188 yards, and 3 scores, becoming Tua’s No. 1 weapon. His total for Thursday night’s game is 48.5. Opponent’s tight ends have hit this in four of eight games this season. Tight ends have also scored six TDs against the Packers this year and with Smith seemingly on Tua’s radar in the red zone, I will play him to score as well. You are two legs to a Same Game Parlay if you can figure out who is going to cover or how much the teams will score.
Prediction: Miami 24, Green Bay 19
Pick: Jonnu Smith over 48.5 yards, Smith ATD +225