The Miami Dolphins will face the New York Jets in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Dolphins and Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Miami Dolphins Week 18 Start-Sit Advice
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Tagovailoa is inactive for today's game.
Tua Tagovailoa’s status is uncertain for this week, but I’m comfortable enough with what he has put on film this year to say that he fits the “if he plays for his team, he plays for your fantasy team” mantra.
Tagovailoa has five top-10 finishes this season, one of which came in Week 14 against the Jets (QB5 with 331 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns). It’s not yet clear whether the Dolphins will have Jaylen Waddle back, but taking on a defense that ranks 18th in terms of limiting YAC is a good spot for this quick-release offense, no matter the status of its WR2.
I have a spot tucked just inside of my top 12 for Tagovailoa should we get news that he is cleared ahead of the week kicking off.
Tyler Huntley, QB
Tyler Huntley averaged 8.7 yards per pass and had one touchdown on 26 attempts against the Browns on Sunday — in his first 66 passes this season, he averaged 5.7 yards per pass and had one touchdown.
He posted a strong effort last week, and while the Jets’ defense is taking on water, I’m not ready to label Huntley as a viable asset should he get the call for Tua Tagovailoa (hip) again in the season finale.
De’Von Achane, RB
De’Von Achane might be as quarterback-dependent of a running back as there is in the NFL:
- With Tua Tagovailoa: 18.6% production over expectation, 1.2 points per touch, and 24.1% on-field target share
- With Tyler Huntley: 23.1% production under expectation, 0.5 points per touch, and 11.5% on-field target share
With Huntley under center, Achane doesn’t have a red-zone target, sees his aDOT more than triple, and faces a loaded box more often. He’s too talented to bench, but if this is the Huntley show again, you’re watching with your eyes closed.
If Tagovailoa is cleared to play, you should have zero concerns about gobbling up additional shares in addition to what you already hold in season-long formats. The Dolphins went with a pass-heavy script in the first meeting with the Jets (Week 14), which is just fine if QB1 is active.
Jaylen Wright, RB
It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June. He’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert has multiple catches in each of his past four games, but he hasn’t cleared eight carries in a game in two months. If Miami is going to get this must-win game, it’s going to funnel the touches just about anywhere else.
Mostert is a good reminder to us all to judge every season as its own entity. None of his touchdowns from last season were ever going to matter this season, and with Jaylen Wright in the fold, we should have listened more to what this franchise was telling us.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Waddle is active for today's game.
Jaylen Waddle missed last week’s win over the Browns with a knee injury, and his status is currently cloudy, although Mike McDaniel did sound optimistic when addressing the media on Monday.
His health, of course, is only one piece of the puzzle. Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip injury, and Tyler Huntley is getting the early reps in practice this week. The Dolphins are still mathematically alive, and that has me leaning in the direction of Tagovailoa, but we have nothing definitive at this point in time, and it makes a HUGE difference:
- With Tagovailoa: 23.4% production over expectation, 1.9 yards/route, and 10.6 aDOT
- With Huntley: 30.4% production below expectation, 1.4 yards/route, and 8.1 aDOT
Waddle turned 12 targets into nine grabs and 99 yards in Week 14 against these Jets, a stat line that is encouraging if Tagovailoa is under center. The part that worries me about Huntley is that the production change is a result of a significantly different role.
Waddle is a talented player, and the dip in aDOT makes a viable performance possible but not projectable, and that would have him falling from a starter in most formats with Tagovailoa to a ‘pivot-if-possible’ option if not.
Tyreek Hill, WR
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Hill is active for today's game.
Tyreek Hill did it. He was able to produce with Tyler Huntley under center last week, catching all nine of his targets against the Browns for 125 yards.
I loved what I saw from Hill compared to previous Huntley starts. His 9.6-yard aDOT allowed him to be efficient and function in a similar role compared to when Tua Tagovailoa is under center, and that’s exactly what we need.
How much of that was matchup-based (Browns rank 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed this season while the Jets rank 13th)? How much of that was due to Jaylen Waddle sitting out with a knee injury?
We’ll get those answers this weekend as Miami fights to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, though I still have concerns when you take a step back and look at the numbers with/without Huntley:
- With Tagovailoa: 4.1% production over expectation and 11.5 aDOT
- With Huntley: 12.7% production below expectation and 14.3 aDOT
They got better last week, but they still aren’t good. That said, we aren’t sure who is calling the shots for Miami this week. I do anticipate a hefty target share either way (10-115-1 on a 31.1% share in this matchup four weeks ago), and that’s enough to start Hill. Still, you need to be aware that his range of outcomes is very wide should Huntley get the nod again.
Hill’s range of outcomes is pretty wide with Tagovailoa as well, but I’m more willing to pencil him in for top-10 upside this weekend if that’s the case than if Huntley is calling the shots, especially if Waddle were to return.
Jonnu Smith, TE
The Jonnu Smith story is a good example of why you have to keep an open mind at these onesie positions. At no point during this offseason did I think a tight end in this very concentrated passing attack would return value. When Tua Tagovailoa was injured early in the season, I certainly wasn’t walking back that stance.
But I was wrong in this instance – Smith has been nothing short of great and is deserving of your trust with your season on the line. The veteran has at least six targets or a touchdown in seven straight games, production that has come in light of injuries all over the place.
The Jets shut him out for all of regulation in the Week 14 game, but Miami unlocked their tight end in overtime and featured him as they marched down the field (3-44-1). We don’t yet have much in the way of clarity when it comes to the status of Tua Tagovailoa or Jaylen Waddle – that matters for the Dolphins, but not for my confidence in Smith.
New York Jets Week 18 Start-Sit Advice
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers has had more downs than ups this season, but he has completed 17 of 21 play-action passes over the past two weeks (81%), and with the Dolphins giving up more yards per carry after contact than any other defense, it’s easy to envision a scenario where the play fake is weaponized this weekend.
Rodgers looked good in the first game against the ‘Fins (Week 14: 339 passing yards and a touchdown), and all signs seem to point to him finishing the season. This is a weird ranking week for the QB position, as I’ve prioritized Russell Wilson (vs. CIN) and Michael Penix Jr. while weighing team motivation in a significant way toward the bottom of my QB1 rankings.
That drops Rodgers outside of my top 12, even in a reasonable spot. The Jets looked like a mess last week, and there is no overlooking that potential for this week. The future Hall of Famer has just two finishes better than QB10 this season, and while it’s possible that he adds to that total if he continues to weigh down Davante Adams with targets, I’m not ranking it that way, opting for better matchups in big team spots.
Braelon Allen, RB
Braelon Allen is rarely getting 10 touches in this Jets offense, and I fear that is going to be the norm not just for this game but moving forward.
His 0.77 PPR points per touch this season don’t jump off the screen, but we don’t have nearly enough of a sample to make sweeping claims. It appears that Aaron Rodgers trusts Breece Hall; that has me projecting Allen as nothing more than an average handcuff should the four-time MVP stay in town.
Breece Hall, RB
Breece Hall’s points per touch are down 7.8% from a season ago, clearly a disappointment based on expectations. He missed the first game against the Dolphins and yet the Jets relied on the ground game, so there is hope for volume in this spot. In the Week 14 meeting, Brealon Allen and Isaiah Davis combined for …
- 21 carries
- 83 rushing yards
- One TD
- 28.2% target share
If Hall can walk into 70% of that role, we are looking at a top-12 running back. I’m not that optimistic, but I do think he gets the lion’s share of the work this week, and that lands him as a starter in all formats.
Davante Adams, WR
The only players with more targets than Davante Adams (102) since he debuted for the Jets are Ja’Marr Chase (119) and Malik Nabers (110). That run includes an 11-target performance against these Dolphins in Week 14 (nine catches for 109 yards and a score), and the volume looks as sustainable as it was when this tandem was winning games in a different shade of green.
Adams saw a 2.1-yard average depth of target in last week’s lopsided loss in Buffalo. We could see a similar usage pattern this week with the Dolphins (like the Bills) being a defense that prioritizes taking away the big play. That might limit the raw upside for Adams, but I’m not worried about it. He’s averaging a career-high 5.6 yards per catch after the reception this season.
We could spend time arguing if Adams should be ranked as WR8 or WR18 (my WR14), but I’d be playing him in any spot where I have him.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Garrett Wilson has 10 top-30 performances this season and the floor has been great. For the most part. He has as many finishes outside the top 50 as he does inside the top five (three apiece), introducing a level of variance that is just enough to cast some doubt.
We obviously have no way of knowing what this team plans to do with Aaron Rodgers in this spot, but I’m operating as if he will play the majority of it barring a one-sided score. He was able to get Wilson 10 targets (seven catches for 114 yards) when these two teams played in Week 14 and while production like that is tough to pencil in, this is a very concentrated offense that projects to be playing from behind.
I’d rather play George Pickens, Jameson Williams, or even the upward-trending Jalen McMillan in gotta-have-it spots, but that doesn’t prevent Wilson from earning a top-25 grade and thus a starting nod in the vast majority of situations.
Tyler Conklin, TE
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Conklin is active for today's game.
Tyler Conklin caught all eight targets last weekend in Buffalo and scored his third touchdown of the season, a performance that wasn’t felt by most.
Should we bank on it continuing this weekend?
He’s not a safe option by any means, but I do think there is a level of safety here that is easy to overlook. From a macro standpoint, five targets are valuable at the tight end position and Conklin has hit that mark in four straight contests. When digging into the micro details, you’ll understand why we had Conklin ranked ahead of the industry average last week – opponent gameplan.
The Bills function defensively to take away the perimeter and keep everything in front of them. They play with coverage over the top and try to funnel receivers toward the boundary as they run downfield – they dare you to beat them with paper cuts.
The Jets didn’t succeed, but that game plan did result in their tight end being heavily involved. Buffalo owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT. I’ll give you one guess for who ranks second in that metric.
You got it, Miami. We could be looking at 5-7 targets and, in a week where production is going to be tough to project, that should be enough to justify a look.