The NFL Week 9 Sunday slate starts with arguably the best matchup of the day, as the Miami Dolphins take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany. This will be another test for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins against a playoff team, as they’re 6-2 but winless against teams above .500. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off their first loss to the Denver Broncos in the Patrick Mahomes era, and are looking to avoid their first two-game losing streak since 2021.
In a matchup featuring two of the top NFL MVP candidates, which side should you be backing? Let’s get into the Dolphins vs. Chiefs predictions, picks against the spread, player props, and more.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Betting Lines
When the Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds opened last Sunday night, Kansas City was initially a 2.5-point favorite. Since then, the spread has fluctuated quite a bit, as the Dolphins have received encouraging injury news and should be getting key players back on both sides of the ball, including Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland, and Terron Armstead.
The betting trends for this one are in the Chiefs’ favor, however. When the point spread is three or less in either direction in Mahomes’ career, he is 19-6-1 ATS. On the other hand, Tua is 12-1 SU against Super Bowl-winning head coaches.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.
- Spread
Chiefs -2 - Moneyline
Dolphins +110, Chiefs -130 - Over/Under
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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
Bearman: This game really comes down to who suits up for the Dolphins. Multiple offensive linemen have traveled with the team to Germany as questionable to play. As of this writing, it looks promising for center Connor Williams and left tackle Terron Armstead while guard Robert Hunt is out.
Armstead and Williams can be game-changers in giving Tua Tagovailoa more time in the passing game and opening up more holes in the running game. Simply put, the offense is much better with them on the field.
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Can the Dolphins defense stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, though? That will be the question that might decide the game, total, and spread. Miami has failed in both big games they’ve played this season — both on the road. This is a neutral site, and the Chiefs are coming off their worst game of the season.
Pick: Miami ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: I mentioned the stat earlier about Mahomes in short point spreads. I’m usually not a trends bettor, but it’s hard for me not to back Mahomes in these sort of spots, especially against a Miami team that has only beaten up bad teams (although in convincing fashion) this season.
This could come back to bite me, as the Dolphins will be the healthiest they’ve been this season, and they have the travel advantage of leaving for Germany on Monday while the Chiefs left on Thursday, but any time Mahomes is a short favorite, I almost always take it.
Although there are legitimate concerns for the Chiefs, most notably at wide receiver, I’m almost throwing last week’s loss completely out the window, considering Mahomes was obviously not at full strength while battling the flu.
Pick: Chiefs -2 (-110 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Let’s start with the matchup. The Dolphins own a high missed tackle count this season, and given the low aDOT role/featured receiver role of Rashee Rice, that’s a potentially fatal flaw. Here’s a quick look at the top-producing pass catchers against Miami in their past six games
- Kendrick Bourne (NE)
- A.J. Brown (PHI)
- Adam Thielen (CAR)
- Darren Waller (NYG)
- Stefon Diggs (BUF)
- Courtland Sutton (DEN)
What do all of those players have in common? They are all the clear top threat in their respective passing games. That, and with the exception of Brown, none of them are aDOT leaders on their own team (for what it’s worth, Dallas Goedert went 5-77-1 in that Brown game).
Guess what boxes Rice checks? Both of them. Rice has more catches than any other Chiefs receiver has targets, and with a 5.3 aDOT, he’s a great matchup fit against a Fins defense that ranks sixth in pressure rate despite the 10th-lowest blitz percentage through eight weeks.
Every defense allocates resources to slow down Travis Kelce (as they should) and that means that only so much attention can be paid to a receiver in Rice who is quietly a top-10 player in average separation gained. He’s averaging a robust 9.3 yards per target this season, a rate that slots him ahead of receivers like Stefon Diggs and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
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When the field shrinks, this matchup only looks better. Rice has a red-zone target in five of his past six games, a tremendous role to take into a game against the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the league. This is the spot on the field where the stakes are the highest and defenses fully commit to the “anybody but Kelce” game plan.
Last thing before the jury rests — the Chiefs should have the ball plenty (sixth in time of possession while the Dolphins rank 21st).
Picks: Rashee Rice over 3.5 catches (-148 at FanDuel), Rashee Rice over 43.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel), Rashee Rice anytime TD (+245 at DraftKings)
Broyles: The Dolphins have not looked great against the better teams in the NFL in 2023. The narrative is that they are bullying weaker opponents. While there may be some truth to that statement, the Dolphins view the Chiefs as a measuring stick game. We know Tyreek Hill will be ready to face his old team. The Phins want to make this a track meet.
Picks: Tua Tagovailoa over 274.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-145 at DraftKings)
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