The Philadelphia Eagles have the second-most difficult strength of schedule in the NFC, despite also being the strongest in their own division — a rarity, given that everyone else in the division has to play the Eagles, but the Eagles don’t have to play themselves. Could this impact their playoff path?
The Philadelphia Eagles’ Schedule Is Full of Juggernauts
The Eagles might be the best team in the NFC, and not just because they won the conference last year. They have the roster, the history of sustainable play, and the quarterback to make a splash — plus the highest estimated point differential of any NFC team in our model.
But with a schedule that includes four Super Bowl favorites in the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys, they might produce fewer wins than their talent demands and could end up with a disappointing season. It may be the case that they lose out on home-field advantage in the playoffs and fizzle out against their competitors.
Because they play the Cowboys twice, they have five of their 17 games against four of the top six teams by Super Bowl odds, with only two of those contests coming at home.
Their schedule is difficult not because they play consistently above-average opponents but because their difficult opponents are extremely difficult. They still have a good chunk of games against generally below-average opponents, like the New York Giants, Tampa Bay, and New England.
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The highs are pretty high, and the lows aren’t that low, which changes things a little bit; it makes it so that no game is a freebie for the team, of course, which can be grueling, but it also means that the schedule itself doesn’t take too many wins away from the team.
Another way to look at it is that an average team against the Eagles’ schedule would likely go 8-9 instead of 8-8-1. The issue is simply that they would likely be blown out in their losses. For the Eagles, their estimated win total goes from 11.5 against an average schedule to 11 with their actual schedule.
They may have a tougher opponent on average, but they don’t lose as many wins as the Jets, Patriots, and Bills do against a schedule full of .500 teams. The other NFC East teams actually lose more estimated wins with their current schedule when compared to a schedule of average teams than the Eagles do.
Another way to look at it is that the Eagles only have two games marked as “toss-ups” on the schedule — their road game against Dallas and their home game against Buffalo. Taking relatively definitive losses on the road limits their ceiling, but they have a high floor.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ Travel Distance Actually Helps
The Eagles do have some respite, too. They have the best travel schedule in the NFL — aside from not having to travel internationally, they host teams who have to travel longer distances than the distance they have to travel for away games.
Part of this comes from the dynamics of the NFC West. Traveling to the Cardinals means they have the shortest possible NFC West travel distance on their schedule, with their true west coast game — against the Los Angeles Rams — balanced by the fact that San Francisco has to travel to Philadelphia. The fact that Seattle has to travel east adds to that imbalance in Philadelphia’s favor.
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They also host their furthest away AFC East opponent, the Miami Dolphins, and travel a minimal distance to play the Patriots and Jets. They have to hit the road to Kansas City but host the Vikings. All in all, despite having an additional away game because it’s the AFC’s turn to host the 17th game, the Eagles have the friendliest travel schedule in the league.
But distance — and time zone — are only small parts of the equation. Who they play matters far more than where they play them.
The Eagles Are Still NFC Favorites
These schedule concerns can be pretty big, but their biggest competitors in the NFC also have difficult schedules. The Cowboys have a virtually identical schedule but play the Chargers, Panthers, and Lions instead of the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Vikings.
The Seahawks have a similarly tough schedule, too. Among the leaders in Super Bowl odds among NFC teams, only the 49ers and Lions have substantially easier schedules. Losing ground to the 49ers can be a big problem and might mean that they don’t get the top seed or the first-round bye.
The Eagles are the strongest team in the NFC by projected point differential, with San Francisco over half a point behind them. Given the diminished value of home-field advantage (and travel distance) in the modern NFL compared to 10 or 20 years ago, the specifics of the schedule don’t matter as much.
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The Eagles still have a more difficult road ahead of them than other teams, but their advantage over other teams is substantial enough that the schedule turns them from near locks for the first overall seed to competitive favorites for the playoff bye.
Because of that, they still end up as favorites in most games despite their schedule and only have two games where they are less than 50 percent likely to win — their road game against Dallas and their road game against Kansas City — with only the Chiefs matchup falling below 45 percent odds.
With that in mind, the Eagles likely won’t be able to hit 13 or 14 wins, but they still have the best chance of having the best record in the NFC. That record might simply be pretty low.