Last year, the NFL added Munich, Germany, to its broadening International Series, which held a total of five games in three countries. Some readers have asked us whether these games — and the wear-and-tear of international travel — are an unfair disadvantage to participating teams.
By extension, with the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New England Patriots all competing overseas in 2023, where does this leave the New York Jets? Does this one AFC East team not playing overseas now have an advantage? Let’s dig deeper to find out.
New York Jets Schedule: Unusual AFC East Parity
This issue might not have mattered if the Arizona Cardinals were the only NFC West team not playing overseas, or if the Houston Texans were the only AFC South team remaining in the U.S. all season. That’s no knock on the Cards and Texans. As the biggest long shots to win the title, few people would bat an eye.
But these days, the AFC East is uniquely competitive. The Jets finished last in the division in 2022 with a 7-10 record. That was the best showing of a last-place AFC East squad since the Bills finished in the basement at 7-9 in 2008. And that Buffalo team started 4-0 before losing two-time Pro Bowl DE Aaron Schobel for the season in Week 5.
While it’s important not to overstate the loss of Schobel, the fact is, those Bills realistically could have finished 8-8 or even 9-7. The 2008 AFC East was truly a collection of four playoff-capable teams.
The arrival of Aaron Rodgers in New York has paved the way for a degree of AFC East parity not seen in 15 years — or perhaps ever. While last year’s NFC East nearly sent four teams to the postseason (the first time that would have happened in league history), this year’s AFC East certainly could achieve that once seemingly impossible feat.
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Assuming Breece Hall is healthy and can once again anchor this backfield, the Jets should have their most complete team in history: a rushing attack, passing attack, and defense that can go toe-to-toe with anyone.
Of course, it’s easier said than done, and that’s what makes the AFC East so intriguing. For last year’s Dolphins, a healthy Tua Tagovailoa often looked unstoppable alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Patriots’ impressive defense should be even better in 2023, keeping them in games in the hope that their solid backfield and the hit-or-miss Mac Jones can deliver.
And the Bills remain the team to beat. While their air of invincibility has waned a bit, they are still what their three divisional rivals hope to become: a true juggernaut that, at their best, can dominate on both sides of the ball.
Is It Disadvantageous To Play Overseas?
The Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots will each play a regular-season game outside the United States in 2023. This brings us to an important question: As the sole AFC East team not playing overseas this season, do the Jets have an unfair advantage over their divisional rivals?
Buffalo will face the Jacksonville Jaguars (in the second of the Jags’ back-to-back England contests) in London in Week 5. Miami will face off in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs in Frankfurt, Germany, which will also be the locale for New England vs. the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10.
Now, there’s no easy way to quantify the challenges facing teams that play one international game per year. But I decided to focus my research on the degree to which these clubs play to their potential overseas. If they’re good playing in England, Germany, or Mexico, we would expect them to be good back in the States.
“Good” is also tough to quantify. So I analyzed each team’s regular-season success dating back to the start of international play in 2007, covering 38 total games, or 76 “teams.” In other words, each year the Jaguars have played internationally counts as a unique team.
On 26 occasions, a team playing overseas has gone on to reach the playoffs that same season. That equates to a 34.2% playoff rate. Until expanding the postseason pool by two teams a couple years ago, 37.5% of all teams made the playoffs. So there’s some parity there.
Now, one might argue that the 34.2% playoff rate is a random outcome based on the quality of teams that competed overseas. But the NFL isn’t always sending its top teams to international destinations. On the contrary, they often send squads expected to finish comfortably below .500.
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In fact, last year, the league sent the Seahawks to Mexico and the Jaguars and Giants to England. None of these three franchises were expected to make much noise. Yet, all three went on to reach the playoffs. If competing overseas were an obvious detriment to teams’ postseason hopes, then that 34.2% playoff rate would be considerably lower.
Also, in one of those fascinating coincidences that might not actually be a coincidence, of the 22 overseas matchups that yielded one playoff team and one non-playoff team at the end of the season, the eventual playoff team prevailed 20 times (91%). In other words, these international contests have yielded incredibly consistent (and often surprising) results.
Take last year’s Giants, which defeated the heavily favored Packers in London. Green Bay was expected to be a playoff team, and the Giants were early-season overachievers destined for a fall.
But it didn’t play out that way. In the moment, it appeared the better team (Packers) lost. In hindsight, it was clear that the better team (Giants) won. New York was the real deal, and they proved it the rest of the season and into the playoffs. Green Bay’s experience in England reflected their subpar level of play the rest of the year.
It doesn’t seem to matter if teams compete on foreign soil. What really matters internationally is the same as what really matters domestically: Are they as good as advertised?
In a few months, we’ll learn whether the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots are as good as advertised. Because it’s not about where teams play on neutral turf. It’s about how they play.