The NFL season is finally here, with the Kansas City Chiefs kicking off 2024 with a 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
There are plenty of other games this weekend, including when the Seattle Seahawks host the Denver Broncos.
While the main storyline here is Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix, we also have three wide receivers on the Seahawks to discuss: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett.
Below, I’ll review the consensus rankings to see which receiver you should start in fantasy football this week.
Should You Start DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Tyler Lockett This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Metcalf is the player to start.
Metcalf’s projected 12.4 points in PPR leagues include a projection of four catches for 55 yards. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Smith-Njigba (9.5 points) and Lockett (8.0 points).
However, in my personal rankings, I see Smith-Njigba outperforming both Metcalf and Lockett.
JSN will have a comfortable matchup against slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian, while Lockett and Metcalf will deal with Patrick Surtain II throughout the game.
Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
Entering his second season, Smith-Njigba is in a position to kick things off with a bang.
According to TruMedia, Smith-Njigba caught 63 passes on 93 targets for 628 yards and four touchdowns across 17 games his rookie year, and he averaged 10 yards per catch.
Here, he’ll matchup with Broncos third-year cornerback McMillian, who allowed 41 catches on 67 targets for 469 yards and eight touchdowns.
McMillian allowed at least four catches in four of eight games last year in which he was targeted five or more times.
The touchdown upside is certainly here for Smith-Njigba, especially with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who is coming to the Seahawks from the Washington Huskies and is looking to revitalize this passing attack.
Lockett’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
Lockett has been a fantastic receiver throughout his career, but as a deep threat, his age may be catching up with him.
Lockett turns 32 in a few weeks. Last season, he caught 79 balls for 894 yards and five touchdowns in 2023, his lowest yardage since 2017.
As mentioned, he and Metcalf will face Surtain, who just received a massive extension. Surtain allowed less than 50 yards in 12 of 17 games last season.
Lockett also enters Week 1 with a calf injury. He is expected to play, but his opportunities and snap counts could be limited.
Metcalf’s Fantasy Outlook this Week
I fully expect Metcalf to get plenty of targets here, even against Surtain, but I think there’s some excellent touchdown and reception upside for Smith-Njigba. It’s also a great time to establish him as a legitimate weapon.
In 2023, Metcalf caught 66 passes on 112 targets for 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns. He saw six targets or more in 11 games.
Of course, with this being Week 1, start your studs. Metcalf was the first Seahawks receiver off the majority of draft boards, so you’ll start him, but I think he finishes just behind Smith-Njigba in points this week.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for the Seahawks’ WRs in Week 1
DK Metcalf: Smith needs to bounce back this season for Metcalf to be a difference-maker. That said, the physical tools are too much to sit on; that is going to give Metcalf a chance to be inside of my top 15 at the position until proven otherwise.
Last season, Metcalf ranked fourth in the league in end-zone targets, and over the past two seasons, he has led all players with 12 games of multiple end-zone looks. Even if the yardage totals carry risk, the usage in the painted area is nothing short of elite and should be on full display in this game that features two of the six worst EPA defenses from 2023 — (bet the over?).
Tyler Lockett: Counting out this veteran isn’t for the faint of heart, but with seven games last season with three or fewer receptions, it’s impossible to enter 2024 with confidence.
Lockett will turn 32 later this month and is coming off of his worst season in terms of fantasy points to expectation since 2017. I have him positioned to be the fantasy WR3 in this offense, and that means it’ll take the perfect matchup for him to move onto my Flex radar — I don’t think this is that with Denver blitzing at the fourth-highest rate last season.
What made Lockett special for years was his ability to win deep and connect with Russell Wilson on those bombs. Things aren’t the same with Smith; if the Broncos are going to bring the heat, he’s not going to have the time needed to land the type of splash play that you’d need to justify going this direction.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: There has been a groundswell regarding the JSN breakout season, and I’m generally on board. The depth of the WR position allows us time to be patient when it comes to plugging him into starting lineups, and that’s a blessing, though I do want him on my roster in case he truly explodes in Year 2.
Smith-Njigba last season:
- Weeks 1-5: 3.3 aDOT
- Weeks 6-18: 7.2 aDOT (still shallow, but more optionality)
We know that Grubb wants to stretch the field. We know that Smith is capable of doing so. We know that Lockett showed signs of decline last season. Put all of those ingredients into a pot and we could be looking at a fantasy league winner with time.