In the right environment, there’s little doubt DK Metcalf could be a fantasy football WR1. So far, we haven’t found that right environment outside of one season in 2020. Could the Seattle Seahawks‘ new coaching staff unlock Metcalf’s true potential? What does his 2024 projection look like?
DK Metcalf’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 13.5
- Receptions: 75
- Receiving Yards: 1,023
- Receiving TDs: 8.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Metcalf This Year?
Is it fair to say Metcalf has underwhelmed since his breakout 2020 NFL season? Metcalf averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game (ppg) as a sophomore in 2020. That put him on track to be a perennial WR1 in fantasy. Since then, though, he hasn’t come close.
Metcalf has been remarkably consistent, averaging between 13.3 and 14.4 ppg each of the past three years, finishing no lower than the overall WR24 and no higher than WR20. The problem is, for two out of three of those years, Metcalf’s average draft position (ADP) was either near or above where he finished. He wasn’t providing fantasy managers with any sort of edge.
What makes Metcalf’s path to his fantasy finishes so difficult to figure out has been different every year. In 2021, Metcalf saw an elite target share but low volume due to a run-heavy offense. Yet, he scored 12 touchdowns. His efficiency in that department saved his fantasy value.
The following season, Metcalf set a career-high with 141 targets, but with the increase in volume came a career-worst 11.6 yards per reception.
Last season, Metcalf’s yards per reception spiked to 16.9, a career high. However, his target shared dipped a hair below 23% and he caught just 66 passes. Despite scoring eight touchdowns, Metcalf averaged fewer ppg than he did two years before.
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It’s easy to say this is just who Metcalf is, but this is still a player firmly in his prime. Metcalf won’t even turn 27 years old until December.
I am projecting sophomore WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to take a step forward, but I am also projecting soon-to-be 32-year-old Tyler Lockett to take a step back. Regardless, Metcalf is the Seahawks’ clear alpha.
What’s interesting about Metcalf this season is I want to be bullish on him. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb comes from the college ranks but has a history of pushing the ball downfield. That is how Metcalf needs to be used.
My problem in projecting Metcalf is he’s coming off a career-high 16.9 yards per reception. Metcalf saw those downfield targets. He also scored eight touchdowns. There’s not really any room for him to be more efficient. The way Metcalf would increase his production is through volume.
As the Seahawks’ WR1, Metcalf deserves at least a 25% target share. That number was at 22.9% last year. His 7.5 targets per game were his lowest since his rookie season.
In my projections, Metcalf came out as the WR22. I have him catching 83 balls for 1,160 yards and 7.8 touchdowns, averaging 14.46 points per game. He wound up falling in the middle of a bunched-up group of receivers separated by very little.
I have Metcalf ranked as my WR24 and his ADP is WR20. All of these numbers are very close. Nothing about my ranking or projection of Metcalf screams “Don’t draft him.” But nothing screams “Draft him” either.
Given that I have the Seahawks projected for 572 pass attempts, it’s hard to envision me having undershot that. The path to Metcalf outperforming expectations is volume and efficiency.
I gave Metcalf a 24% target share. If that ends up being around 26-27%, Metcalf will be better than I projected.
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I gave Metcalf a 60% catch rate. It’s possible he could be a bit higher, but his career catch rate is 60%, and he was at 55.5% last season.
I did reduce Metcalf’s yards per reception projection to 14.1, though. If that remains over 16, that’s another path for Metcalf to be better than he looks in the projections.
All of this is to say my modest projection does not render me out on Metcalf. Even though I have him ranked a bit lower than ADP, that’s a very tight cluster of receivers all valued very similarly. Metcalf has the talent and offensive situation to succeed. If you want to value him above where I have him, by all means, do so. The upside is definitely there.