The arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the Seattle Seahawks‘ wide receiver room certainly had a noticeable fantasy impact for the two mainstays of this passing attack last year.
With a handful of changes to the coaching staff this offseason, what does DK Metcalf’s fantasy football profile look like heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select DK Metcalf at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 43rd Overall (WR21)
- Declining Production: Metcalf’s targets (119) and receptions (66) in 2023 were the lowest since his rookie season, contributing to his WR21 finish in full-PPR formats—his lowest since entering the league.
- Impact of JSN and Geno Smith’s Regression: The arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Geno Smith’s regression in passing yards and touchdowns negatively impacted Metcalf’s production. His target share dropped from 25.5% in 2022 to 22.9% in 2023.
- Red-Zone Usage: Despite the overall dip in production, Metcalf was still a key red-zone target, tying for fifth in the NFL with 23 red-zone targets, resulting in six touchdowns. This high-value usage is a positive sign for his 2024 outlook.
- Offensive Coordinator Change: The Seahawks brought in Ryan Grubb as the new offensive coordinator. Given his success at the University of Washington, there is hope that he can revitalize the passing game, which could benefit Metcalf.
- ADP Analysis: Metcalf is currently being drafted as the WR21 at No. 43 overall, which aligns with his recent performance. Although his role in the offense and QB play might limit his ceiling, he offers a solid WR2 option with the potential for big games.
- Final Verdict: Metcalf remains a talented receiver with a consistent track record. While his upside may be capped due to competition and quarterback play, he’s a reliable mid-round pick with a stable floor as a WR2.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for DK Metcalf
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
DK Metcalf’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The Cinderella story for Geno Smith appeared to strike midnight at some point over the 2023 season, with his passing yards and touchdowns both regressing by a notable margin. The struggles of the Seahawks’ passing game combined with the arrival of Smith-Njigba didn’t exactly do Metcalf any favors as a fantasy producer in 2023.
Metcalf’s targets (119) and receptions (66) were both the lowest marks we’ve seen from him since his rookie year in 2019. His fantasy finish of WR21 in full-PPR formats was the lowest since his rookie year, but it’s been trending in that direction for a fourth consecutive year.
Metcalf’s Fantasy Finishes in Full-PPR Formats Since 2020:
- 2020: WR7
- 2021: WR14
- 2022: WR16
- 2023: WR21
Metcalf’s drop in targets from 2022 to 2023 is probably the biggest concern on his fantasy profile, going from 141 to 119 with JSN’s arrival and Smith’s struggles under center. For those who are wondering, that’s a drop from a 25.5% target share to 22.9%. Although it’s not a meteoric type of descent, it’s certainly enough to have an impact on Metcalf’s fantasy production.
FINGERTIPS❕
The rookie puts the #Seahawks ahead on their longest TD drive of the season.
What a play by Jaxon Smith-Njigba! pic.twitter.com/uNKGKDDQYA
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 19, 2023
Smith-Njigba’s 63 receptions for 628 yards and four scores on 93 targets weren’t the only things impacting Metcalf’s fantasy production. As always, Tyler Lockett was heavily involved, with 79 receptions for 894 yards and five scores on a team-high 122 targets. It’s not that Metcalf was bad by any stretch of the imagination, but Smith simply wasn’t able to make all three quality receivers big-time fantasy producers last season.
Could the arrival of new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb help this passing game in 2024? It’s certainly plausible, considering how much he contributed to Michael Penix Jr.’s success in tossing the ball over the yard to Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk at the University of Washington last year.
Still, it will depend on how effectively Smith performs under center. One very encouraging sign for Metcalf’s fantasy outlook was his high usage near the end zone (tied for fifth with 23 targets in the red zone in 2023). He produced 10 receptions for 79 yards and six scores on those highly valuable fantasy targets.
Is Metcalf a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The ADP study of Metcalf heading into the 2024 season is among the most interesting of the WR position. He’s currently going at No. 43 overall in the middle of Round 4 as the WR21 off the board. For some additional context, he hasn’t finished outside the top 21 at his position for the last four seasons.
Unfortunately, Metcalf’s quality competition for targets and less-than-ideal QB play for an outside vertical weapon makes it feel like he’s more likely to play closer to his fantasy floor than his ceiling this coming season.
Metcalf is still an excellent wide receiver who has provided numbers similar to Mike Evans since emerging as a full-time starter in 2020. He’s appropriately priced in the middle rounds and gives fantasy managers a reliable WR2 option that can occasionally produce explosively.