Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is in quite a different situation entering this season. Coming off a very disappointing season, can Metcalf bounce back in a post-Russell Wilson world? What can fantasy football managers expect from Metcalf in the 2022 season, and what is his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
DK Metcalf’s fantasy outlook for 2022
After a solid — if unspectacular — rookie season, Metcalf broke out as a sophomore. In 2020, Metcalf totaled 83 receptions for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 17 PPR fantasy points per game and finished as a WR1 in fantasy football. As a result, he entered the 2021 season with even loftier expectations. Unfortunately, a multitude of factors contributed to Metcalf’s underwhelming third season.
He already had the misfortune of playing on a team coached by Pete Carroll, who would literally never call a pass play if he could get away with it. On top of that, Metcalf hurt his foot early in the 2021 season. Although he didn’t miss a game, Metcalf missed a ton of practice throughout the season and was on the injury report in some capacity almost every week.
Russell Wilson also had one of the worst seasons of his career. His 64.8% completion percentage was his lowest since 2017 and his 222.4 passing yards per game was his second-lowest in the past seven years. It didn’t help that the Seahawks ran just 53 plays a game. It was the slowest pace by a whopping four plays per game. Seattle attempted 495 passes on the season, just one more than Philadelphia for fewest in the NFL.
Additionally, Metcalf’s own efficiency dropped considerably. His target share increased to over 27% as he was finally treated like a true WR1. However, he only caught 58% of balls thrown his way. Despite his total target count being identical to the previous season and there being an extra game, Metcalf’s yardage total decreased by 336.
The only saving grace for Metcalf’s 2021 season was his touchdown efficiency. Metcalf’s 12 touchdowns were a career-high. He would do well to match that in 2022 with a very different offense around him.
How the Seahawks’ depth chart impacts DK Metcalf’s fantasy projection for the season
The biggest impediment to a Metcalf bounce back in 2022 is the drastically different Seahawks’ offense. Yes, the only real change was Wilson being traded, but that is a massive change. Without Wilson, it’s reasonable to expect this offense to be low-scoring, which lowers Metcalf’s upside.
Seattle also drafted Kenneth Walker III in the second round. Once again, expect the Seahawks to be as run-heavy as possible. The only silver lining here is this team could be so bad that they have no choice but to throw.
That brings us to the quarterback situation. The Seahawks are going to start either Drew Lock or Geno Smith (almost certainly both throughout the season). If there’s any positive to take away, it’s that Metcalf actually averaged more points per game last year with Smith (17.2) than he did with Wilson (13.9).
Perhaps more importantly, Metcalf is a true alpha X receiver. He doesn’t need to be open for a quarterback to throw it. And he doesn’t need precision timing with his QB.
Tyler Lockett does. Lockett suffers far more from Wilson departing than Metcalf. Whether it’s Lock or Smith, this offense is unlikely to generate more than one fantasy-relevant receiver. That guy is going to be Metcalf.
Metcalf’s ADP for 2022
Metcalf’s ADP is the key to everything. He was a consensus top-18 player just a year ago. He’s now going outside the top 36 at around the WR15. We’re getting a discount, but is it enough?
It all comes down to how bad you think this offense will be. We’ve seen wide receivers post elite seasons on bad offenses before. Metcalf doesn’t need to be the WR1 he was in 2020; he just needs to be a WR2. With that said, Metcalf’s ADP is still a bit too high.
I’m not completely out on Metcalf like many in the fantasy community. He is still an elite player who has the talent to overcome his situation. However, I need more of a discount.
In the late-fourth/early-fifth round, I’m willing to swing on Metcalf. If he falls in your fantasy draft, feel free to push the button. If he’s going at ADP, there are just better options at that price.