DK Metcalf’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

The perception surrounding Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf in dynasty fantasy football leagues is quite fascinating. Despite not being as productive as some of his peers, he’s often valued ahead of them because he should be better. Is this the year we get another WR1 season from Metcalf? Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?

DK Metcalf’s Dynasty Outlook

Whenever a rookie wide receiver is able to amass 900 yards, it’s usually a pretty good sign. That made Metcalf’s sophomore breakout not only unsurprising but expected.

DK Metcalf is one of the best WRs in the NFL. 🔥🔥🔥

However, with the recent coaching shift in Seattle, are you buying/selling/holding in dynasty leagues?

(Via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/BezMVnpMvb

— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 23, 2024

In 2020, Metcalf caught 83 passes for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game and looked to be on the path to superstardom.

Everything about Metcalf’s first two seasons suggested he would be an annual top 10-15 receiver. That made what came next difficult to foresee.

Metcalf has now spent three years trying to return to the level he reached in 2020. By no means has Metcalf been bad. Rather, history suggests Metcalf should have been producing at much higher levels than he’s displayed the past three seasons.

Over the past three seasons, Metcalf has averaged 14.4, 13.3, and 14.1 points per game, respectively. Those numbers aren’t destroying fantasy managers’ seasons, but they’re also not moving the needle, either.

What’s interesting about Metcalf’s struggles is the way they’ve looked. Most players produce in a particular way that makes them less appealing for fantasy. That hasn’t been the case with Metcalf.

In 2021, Metcalf saw an elite target share but low volume due to a run-heavy offense. Yet, he scored 12 touchdowns. He was quite efficient.

In 2022, Metcalf’s volume went up, but he was inefficient, averaging a career-low 11.6 yards per reception.

Last season, Metcalf’s yards per reception spiked to 16.9, a career high. However, his target shared dipped a hair below 23%, and he caught just 66 passes.

I still believe in Metcalf’s talent. He’s one of the best athletes the NFL has ever seen. And despite this being his sixth year in the league, he’s only 26 years old.

Metcalf undoubtedly has 20-points-per-game upside. The question is whether he will ever realize it.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart

Metcalf has never played for a coach other than Pete Carroll. Could this new offense be more pass-happy? Will it even matter? Is QB Geno Smith capable of pushing Metcalf to the next level?

If the answer to that last question is no, then Smith may not be the Seahawks’ QB for much longer.

Metcalf should have another 5-6 years left at the top of his game. Dynasty managers can afford to bet on talent and hope for a quarterback upgrade.

Metcalf’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Metcalf land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Metcalf lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF

Should You Trade Metcalf in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Metcalf? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!

With five years of experience, Metcalf is no longer a young player with unknown upside. We don’t need to speculate as to how good Metcalf can be. We know what the upside is…. or at least, what it should be.

I still have Metcalf valued as a WR1 in dynasty — but just barely. He’s a unique case where you look at the talent profile combined with the underlying metrics and can’t help but believe it’s all going to come together eventually. It would be a major disappointment if Metcalf didn’t post multiple WR1 seasons over the remainder of his career.

With that said, if he puts together another middling WR2 season in fantasy, we’re going to have to lower him. His value will drop. If you want to trade him, now is probably the time to do it. One more underwhelming year, and the return you get will be far less than you want it to be.

At the same time, if you trade Metcalf now and this is the year the volume, efficiency, and touchdowns all coalesce, you’re going to be kicking yourself. Such is the plight of anyone playing dynasty fantasy football.

There’s no objectively correct decision here. The best course of action is to send out trade offers. This goes for managers looking to potentially trade for Metcalf and those possibly trading him away.

KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies

I would treat Metcalf purely as a value proposition. In a trade involving Metcalf, take the side that offers the better value based on what our free Trade Analyzer suggests.